When will spring be here to stay? Weather officials talk warmer temperatures in Ky.
It’s still too early to welcome those consistent, warmer temperatures we’ve been dreaming of all winter long, but weather experts in Kentucky believe they could arrive by the end of April.
We asked the interim state climatologist and a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Louisville when Kentuckians might be able to count on warmer, sunnier days this spring. Here’s what they had to say:
Weakened La Niña to blame for wishy-washy weather
Mid to late April is typically when the commonwealth starts to see the end of freezing, overnight temperatures, according to Kentucky’s Interim State Climatologist Megan Schargorodski.
This year, Kentucky’s weather has been defined by La Niña, the colder counterpart of El Niño.
As described by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Niña is a phenomenon that begins in the Pacific Ocean. During normal conditions, trade winds blow west along the Equator, scooping up warm water from South America toward Asia. As a consequence, frigid water from the depths of the ocean rises to the surface to replace it. This process is called upwelling. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that disrupt this normal rhythm, which scientists call the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle.
During a La Niña event, those trade winds are even stronger than normal. The beefed up winds push more warm water toward Asia, and off the west coast of North and South America, upwelling increases.
The cold, nutrient-rich waters that rise up from the depths push the jet stream north. According to NOAA, this tends to produce drought across the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding the Pacific Northwest and Canada.
In a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north. La Niña can also lead to more severe hurricanes.
According to Schargorodski, “Kentucky weather is sensitive to La Niña due to the shift in the jet stream, generally leading to warmer and wetter weather in the winter and early spring.”
The state got the warmer and wetter bit back in December, but as the area has transitioned into early spring, that La Niña pattern has weakened slightly, Schargorodski said via email.
This is causing eastern Kentucky and some of the surrounding states to be drier than expected over the past month.
“This is leading to the progression of abnormally dry conditions in far eastern Kentucky, which should not be a long-term concern as long as springtime storms provide rain to that part of the Commonwealth,” Schargorodski said.
As for her predictions for when we might start seeing warmer temperatures stick around, Schargorodski said that could happen soon.
“Temperatures should start warming up for good by the end of April, but don’t be surprised if there is another round of cold daytime temperatures with the passage of a strong, springtime cold front,” she said.
April brings higher than usual rainfall, potential flooding risk
Kevin Farina, a meterologist with the NWS, shares Schargorodski’s view that warmer temperatures could be just a week or two away.
Still, we’ll likely see below normal temperatures and wetter weather before the sun comes out. The chart below, sourced from NWS data, shows the Lexington area has received about 20 inches of accumulated precipitation so far, and we’re only about midway through the month.
“Flooding might be more of a concern if the trend continues with heavier rain,” Farina said.
For more information about how to prepare for flooding and other weather-related disasters, visit weather.gov/safety/.
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This story was originally published April 15, 2022 at 10:44 AM.