Hurricane Ian could disrupt weekend plans in Kentucky. What to know about the forecast
Hurricane Ian made landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast late Wednesday afternoon as a powerful Category 4 storm, leaving a swath of devastation in numerous communities.
The storm came ashore at 4:35 p.m. south of Punta Gorda, Fla., with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm weakened to a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by Wednesday night as it continued to pummel the state. The Saffir-Simpson scale is only based on wind speeds and does not account for other deadly factors like storm surge.
Thursday morning, as the storm was downgraded to a tropical storm as it lost power while churning over land, officials said they were still trying to ascertain the scale of the damage. There are at least two unconfirmed reports of fatalities, Local 10 reported.
It is expected to strengthen back to or near hurricane status in the Atlantic Ocean before making landfall along the East Coast. Ian brings with it severe weather and the possibility of life-threatening storm surge.
Hurricane Ian and Kentucky
Brian Schoettmer, lead forecaster with the National Weather Service in Louisville, said Wednesday morning current tracks show the storm making landfall out of the Gulf of Mexico on the west coast of Florida before crossing back to the Atlantic Ocean and making landfall once more, potentially near the Georgia-South Carolina border.
It’s likely to then churn across land northwestward, he said, losing steam and “wobbling” around Kentucky this weekend. The eastern part of the state is likely to see the most rain and poor weather from Ian.
“Overall, I don’t think it’s going be that impactful for the area, but if East Kentucky starts to see some of those higher totals, they may have a few minor flood concerns to worry about,” Schoettmer said.
Eastern Kentuckians may see bands of rain associated with Ian around Friday night, with rain continuing through the weekend, possibly into Monday.
“It’s going to kind of just hang around and wobble over kind of the central Appalachians really through…it could hang out through Monday.”
In a tweet Thursday, the NWS Louisville office said they now expected Ian’s wet weather to hit the area by Saturday with Friday cloudy and a lessened prediction of precipitation.
Eastern Kentucky could see 2 to 3 inches of rain over the period, the NWS predicted Wednesday, with amounts lessening dramatically the farther west you get in the state. Lexington could see half an inch to an inch of rain, while Louisville may stay dry or see around a quarter of an inch.
While the rain may fall heavy for stretched periods of time, Schoettmer said those rainfall totals are expected to fall over a multi-day period.
Eastern Kentucky, which is expected to get the bulk of Ian’s rain in the state, is tracking nearly 9 inches above typical annual rainfall amounts in some areas. Much of the region was hit with devastating flooding that left 40 people dead at the end of July.
The NWS in Louisville isn’t anticipating unusual wind with the system, but gusts around 20 to 30 mph in the Lexington area are possible.
In an email Tuesday, WKYT chief meteorologist Chris Bailey said he, too, expects Eastern and Central Kentucky to see rain from Ian.
“It’s still not set in stone as it depends on the exact inland track of the storm, but odds favor, at least, some clouds and rain,” he wrote. “If Ian comes far enough west, some heavy rains would be possible.”
In a tweet Wednesday morning, Bailey seemed to firm up that prediction and said Eastern Kentuckians should be “on guard” for heavy rain.
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This story was originally published September 28, 2022 at 12:13 PM.