When will Lexington see the last of frost and cold weather? Here’s a spring outlook
Lexington residents can expect more frost soon, and if the spring trends toward averages, the days of windshield-scraping and protecting outdoor plants may last several more weeks.
The National Weather Service Louisville office forecasts a partly sunny Thursday in Lexington, with a high near 60 degrees and southwest wind from 8 to 16 miles per hour. The forecast shows a 90% chance of precipitation Thursday night, and a 30% chance of rain Friday.
The weekend should be cool and sunny, according to NWS, and frost is in the forecast Sunday night and Monday.
Here’s what to expect for the rest of the season in Lexington, including NWS data and a prediction from the Farmers’ Almanac.
When does Lexington typically have its last frost?
The average last date with a temperature of 32 degrees or lower in Lexington is April 16, according to NWS data from 2000 to 2022.
The earliest date of the last potential frost was March 23, and the latest was May 19.
Typical spring temperatures in Lexington
NWS provides monthly climate normals for Lexington based on data from 1991 to 2020. Here’s what to expect in an average spring:
March:
Average minimum temperature: 35.8 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 56.1 degrees
Average overall temperature: 45.9 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 4.48 inches
April:
Average minimum temperature: 45.2 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 67.2 degrees
Average overall temperature: 56.2 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 4.42 inches
May:
Average minimum temperature: 55 degrees
Average maximum temperature: 75.8 degrees
Average overall temperature: 65.4 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 5.44 inches
Farmers’ Almanac spring predictions
The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a cool, “very stormy” spring in Kentucky, and the central region of the commonwealth is in the “severe weather zone.” Overall, temperatures will be slow to warm this season, the almanac predicts.
“Spring will be unusually active over the nation’s heartland with frequent heavy-to-severe thunderstorms predicted,” the almanac’s prediction reads. “Such adverse activity will be confined chiefly to the Southeast States during March, then will spread north and west April through June.”
The almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
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