Weather News

Is Central Kentucky seeing its last warm day of the year? Check out the winter outlook

Warm temperatures experienced across Central Kentucky Wednesday will likely break records for the month of November, the National Weather Service in Louisville projects.

The agency expects temperature highs across the region to reach above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, but it also said the warm spell isn’t likely to stick around for long. That’s because a cold front is expected to move in and bring showers to the region between Wednesday night and Friday, pulling temperatures down into the 50s by the start of the weekend.

In Lexington, the NWS forecast calls for a high near 80 Wednesday, followed by significantly cooler temperatures and a growing chance of rain. By Friday night, the temperature low could be close to freezing.

Still, the area may see temperatures rise again given the ongoing influence of a strong El Niño, which is driving above-normal temperatures in Central Kentucky.

What’s in store for Central Kentucky under an El Niño?

El Niño is a phenomenon that begins in the central and eastern tropical portions of the Pacific Ocean when its surface warms. This process weakens or even reverses the trade winds that normally blow west along the equator, pushing warmer water from the Pacific closer to North America.

The warming of Earth’s largest ocean has complicated and worldwide implications on weather. In the U.S., El Niño’s impact on the jet stream, a large river of air that encircles the globe, generally means cooler, wetter temperatures across the Sun Belt and warmer, drier conditions in the northern half of the country.

So what does this mean for weather in Kentucky this fall and winter?

For the next few weeks, the latest available outlooks from the nation’s Climate Prediction Center point to an increased chance in above-normal temperatures for much of Kentucky, though the picture is more mixed when it comes to above-normal precipitation.

A screen capture of the Climate Prediction Center’s 6 to 10 day outlook for temperature probability, valid Nov. 13 to 17, 2023.
A screen capture of the Climate Prediction Center’s 6 to 10 day outlook for temperature probability, valid Nov. 13 to 17, 2023. NOAA/Climate Prediction Center
A screen capture of a Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day outlook for precipitation probability, valid Nov. 13 - Nov. 17, 2023.
A screen capture of a Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day outlook for precipitation probability, valid Nov. 13 - Nov. 17, 2023. NOAA/Climate Prediction Center
A screen capture of a Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for the next eight to 14 days, valid Nov. 15-21, 2023.
A screen capture of a Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for the next eight to 14 days, valid Nov. 15-21, 2023. NOAA/Climate Prediction Center
A screen capture of a Climate Prediction Center outlook for precipitation probability, valid between Nov. 15-21, 2023.
A screen capture of a Climate Prediction Center outlook for precipitation probability, valid between Nov. 15-21, 2023. NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

Looking at the CPC’s outlook for November to January, Kentucky is leaning toward above-normal temperatures. For precipitation, the odds are more mixed, with equal chances of either above- or below-normal precipitation.

A screen capture of a three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center looking at temperature probability.
A screen capture of a three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center looking at temperature probability. NOAA/Climate Prediction Center
A seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center looking at precipitation probability.
A seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center looking at precipitation probability. NOAA/Climate Prediction Center

This story may be updated.

Do you have questions about weather and climate in Kentucky for our service journalism team? We’d like to hear from you. Submit them through the Know Your Kentucky form below or by emailing ask@herald-leader.com.

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Aaron Mudd
Lexington Herald-Leader
Aaron Mudd was a service journalism reporter for the Lexington Herald-Leader, Centre Daily Times and Belleville News-Democrat. He was based at the Herald-Leader in Lexington, and left the paper in February 2026. Support my work with a digital subscription
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