Sick of hot summer weather? Here’s what the fall outlook shows for Central Kentucky
Unless you relish long, muggy days, you’re probably fed up with summer in Central Kentucky.
The latest National Weather Service forecast shows Lexington temperatures will rise above 90 degrees Fahrenheit early this week, with Tuesday’s temperature high expected to reach 95. The second half of the week should be slightly cooler, but temperatures will still hover around the 90-degree mark.
If you’re counting down the days in hopes Lexington will soon get a break from the heat, here’s a look back at its normal fall temperatures, month by month.
You should also take note of the latest outlook from the nation’s Climate Prediction Center, which is signaling Kentucky has a fair chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures this fall. Here’s what to know and a baseline understanding of what “normal” weather means.
What’s considered “normal” weather?
The NWS defines normal as the average weather over 30 years. That said, these aren’t simply three-decade averages of monthly and daily observations of temperature, precipitation or other weather variables.
Many weather service stations do not have complete observations for that full 30-year period. So think of “normal” as a good, though not perfect baseline of the type of climate you’d expect at a particular location over the seasons.
In Kentucky, what counts as normal weather is also influenced by its varied geography, meaning “normal” might change based on where you are.
Kentucky has the Appalachian Mountains in its eastern half, the rolling hills of the central Bluegrass region and the flatlands of its west. If you’re in the mountains, you’ll likely experience generally cooler temperatures and more precipitation than the comparatively warmer and drier west.
Normal fall weather in Lexington
Here’s a look at what normal temperatures and precipitation amounts look like between August and November for Lexington, according to the NWS. These climate normals are based on observational data from 1991 to 2020.
August:
Average maximum temperature: 86.2 degrees
Average minimum temperature: 65.2 degrees
Average overall temperature: 75.7 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.71 inches
September:
Average maximum temperature: 80.2 degrees
Average minimum temperature: 58.1 degrees
Average overall temperature: 69.1 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.42 inches
October:
Average maximum temperature: 68.6 degrees
Average minimum temperature: 47 degrees
Average overall temperature: 57.8 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.66 inches
November:
Average maximum temperature: 55.8 degrees
Average minimum temperature: 36.4 degrees
Average overall temperature: 46.1 degrees
Total normal precipitation: 3.37 inches
Lexington has a fair chance of above-normal temperatures
The latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show Kentucky is leaning toward above-normal temperatures for the months of August, September and October. In Kentucky’s case, “leaning” means a 40 to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures. So, there’s a fair chance that outcome will occur, but it’s far from certain.
As for precipitation, the center’s projections indicate equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation for most of the commonwealth, though the state’s eastern edge is leaning toward slightly above normal.
According to the latest indicators, much of Central and Northern Kentucky is experiencing either abnormally dry conditions or moderate drought. For the most part, that hasn’t changed in the last week, though some areas in the northeastern corner of Kentucky are seeing slight improvement, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.
The coming La Niña system expected to dominate the 2024-25 winter could make for a wetter winter in Kentucky, but that’s not certain at this point. According to Tom Reaugh, a meteorologist with the NWS in Louisville, fall is the driest time of the year for Lexington and November is its driest month.
“Since we are heading into the driest part of the year, it can be difficult to eradicate drought in the fall, and we might have to wait until the possibility of La Niña bringing more precipitation in the winter (every La Nina is different, however, and there are many other factors in addition to La Nina/El Nino that determine our weather and climate),” Reaugh wrote the Herald-Leader in an email Friday. “Having said that, this stormy pattern we’ve been in the past few days has brought about 1.50” to 4.00” of rain to the Blue Grass, which should put a pretty good dent in the current drought.”
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