Sleet and snow or springtime warmth? What the rest of February has in store for Central KY
Another winter storm dropped half a foot of snow on Central Kentucky Tuesday, and if the latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are any indication, the conditions are right for more snow later this month.
After Winter Storm Blair in early January brought prolonged school closures and lingering snow packs to much of the central part of the state, residents may be looking forward to warmer temperatures ahead of the start of spring in March.
Here’s a look at how much snow Central Kentucky has seen this winter as of Feb. 11, along with what to generally expect for the rest of the month.
How much snow has Central Kentucky seen this winter?
This week’s winter storm is adding to the above-normal snowfall total Central Kentucky has seen this winter.
According to Ryan Sharp, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Louisville, through Feb. 10, the region can normally expect 8.8 inches of snow. As of midnight Feb. 11, the total for this season had reached 16.4 inches — nearly double the expected figure — not including additional snowfall throughout the rest of the morning Tuesday.
“We expect that number to go up with the data from today,” Sharp told the Herald-Leader in a call mid-Tuesday morning.
A snowier and colder start to the year has helped drive above-average snowfall this winter. The average temperature in Lexington last month was about 5 degrees cooler than a typical January for Lexington, according to the NWS. The city got 13.1 inches of snow in January. It normally receives 4.7, per the NWS.
“We’ve been on the right side of the cold,” Sharp said Tuesday. “We’ve had some arctic air masses that have dropped down, and if you can pair that with the systems coming across, then you’ll end up getting more snow.”
Climatological data for Lexington between 1991 and 2020 shows the city’s average February temperature is 37.5 degrees Fahrenheit. The average temperature in March for that period is 45.9 degrees.
What’s the winter outlook for February and early March?
If the latest outlooks from the national Climate Prediction Center hold true, then there’s a chance Kentucky hasn’t seen the last of snow in February.
A 6- to 10-day outlook from the center, valid between Feb. 16 and 20, points to below-normal temperatures and above-average precipitation for most of the state.
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A separate 8- to 14-day outlook also shows Kentucky is leaning toward below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation between Feb. 18 and 24.
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Given those conditions, more snow isn’t out of the question, Sharp said.
The pattern begins to shift in late February into the first week of March, with equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures and a 55 to 70% chance of above-normal precipitation across Kentucky.
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