Enjoy cool temperatures while they last. Central KY is seeing a ‘false fall’
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- Cool front triggers 'false fall' in Central KY with lows dipping into 40s.
- Forecast shows warming trend after Labor Day, delaying true autumn onset.
- Fall outlook indicates 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures statewide.
Fans of fall have reason to rejoice this week as unseasonably cool weather has taken hold of Central Kentucky.
But true autumn temperatures are still a ways off.
National Weather Service forecaster Brian Neudorff called the current weather pattern a “false fall,” and he said temperatures are likely to gradually increase again after Labor Day.
The latest National Weather Service forecast for the Lexington area shows temperature highs will settle between 76 and 81 degrees throughout the week, with plenty of sunny skies along the way. There’s a possibility for record low temperatures to be tied or broken Wednesday and Thursday morning. Overnight lows could drop into the 40s in some places, according to the forecast discussion.
The well-below-normal temperatures are thanks to a cooling front that moved into the region over the weekend.
“That’s going to allow for cooler air that’s been up in Canada to start to filter its way into the Ohio Valley,” Neudorff told the Herald-Leader in an Aug. 22 interview.
Kentucky, along with much of the Midwest, is experiencing some of the coolest temperatures the Northern Hemisphere has to offer this week, WKYT chief meteorologist Chris Bailey noted in an Aug. 25 forecast.
Still, it isn’t likely to last for long and isn’t the true arrival of fall weather.
“Once we get past Labor Day, we will start to see those temperatures go back up,” Neudorff said.
So when will it truly feel like fall in Central Kentucky? The latest outlooks from the nation’s Climate Prediction Center and historical data from the National Weather Service offer some clues.
Here’s what to expect:
What’s the official fall weather outlook?
The first day of fall arrives Sept. 22 with the autumnal equinox, one of two days each year when the sun is directly over the equator, making day and night of equal length.
The latest one-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows all of Kentucky “leaning” toward above-normal temperatures. That translates to a 33-40% chance.
For the season as a whole, the signal is a bit stronger. The latest Climate Prediction Center three-month outlook, issued Aug. 21, indicates a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures between September and October in Kentucky.
The precipitation outlook for the season calls for equal chances of above or below normal rainfall for most of Kentucky. The one exception is the western tip of the state, which is leaning toward below normal precipitation.
So while Kentucky has a decent shot at above normal temperatures this fall, it’s far from a certainty.
What counts as ‘normal’ fall temperatures in Central Kentucky?
For seasons and longer timescales, the National Weather Service defines “normal” as the average weather over 30 years. The averages are recalculated every 10 years.
Still, they aren’t perfect averages, as complete data isn’t always available. So, consider “normal” to be a good, though not perfect, baseline for what to expect in a particular location.
Here’s a look at what normal temperatures and precipitation looks like between August and November for Lexington, according to the National Weather Service. These are based on observational data from 1991 to 2020.
August
- Average maximum temperature: 86.2 degrees
- Average minimum temperature: 65.2 degrees
- Average overall temperature: 75.7 degrees
- Total normal precipitation: 3.71 inches
September
- Average maximum temperature: 80.2 degrees
- Average minimum temperature: 58.1 degrees
- Average overall temperature: 69.1 degrees
- Total normal precipitation: 3.42 inches
October
- Average maximum temperature: 68.6 degrees
- Average minimum temperature: 47 degrees
- Average overall temperature: 57.8 degrees
- Total normal precipitation: 3.66 inches
November
- Average maximum temperature: 55.8 degrees
- Average minimum temperature: 36.4 degrees
- Average overall temperature: 46.1 degrees
- Total normal precipitation: 3.37 inches
This story was originally published August 26, 2025 at 5:00 AM.