Three key ingredients could produce large weekend storm for Central Kentucky
The incoming weekend snowstorm has three key ingredients that could produce a more rare and large snowstorm for Central Kentucky, according to forecasters.
The snowstorm is expected to hit the region Saturday, Jan. 24 and Sunday, Jan 25. The precise timing, location and total snow accumulation remain unknown, but the National Weather Service said confidence is high in an impactful winter storm that could produce large amounts of snowfall.
There is a 60 to 80% chance of widespread snowfall greater than 6 inches, according to the NWS. There are also some chances for sleet and freezing rain, primarily in southern Kentucky.
There is an 70 to 80% chance that Lexington could get more than 6 inches of snow. The weather service said if the snowstorm tracks more north than expected, snow amounts could increase.
The agency issued a winter storm watch for the entire state in anticipation of the snowstorm. The NWS said people should plan for considerable disruptions to daily life, and major impacts are possible.
Dangerous to impossible driving conditions and widespread closures could result from the storm, according to the NWS, which is 60% chance of major disruptions for Lexington.
The watch is in effect from Saturday morning through Monday, Jan. 26. The NWS said the watch window may shift or narrow as the forecast begins to finalize.
“This watch was issued based on the major impacts expected from this storm, not due to the total snowfall or wintry (precipitation) expected,” the NWS said in the area discussion forecast.
What are the three key ingredients?
Brian Schoettmer, a meteorologist with the NWS, said the system possesses a large amount of lift and moisture, which has increased the size of the snowstorm. Lift is when moist, unstable air gets raised into the atmosphere, which generates storms.
Schoettmer said the upper jet stream is going to stay in one position over the region through the weekend, which will lift a lot of air into the atmosphere. The moisture is coming from Baja, Calif., and will come to the region ahead of a trough.
“There’s just a ton of moisture with it, and we’re going to be sitting under part of the upper jet stream that’s going to allow it to continue to precipitate on top of us,” Schoettmer said.
The third ingredient is cold air. Schoettmer said cold air will be in the region before the snowstorm arrives, creating a perfect blend for a large snowstorm.
“You have three ingredients, which you really need, and they’re all lining up,” Schoettmer said.
Schoettmer said it’s not uncommon for Kentucky to experience these types of large snowstorms. Lexington received at least 6 inches of snow from separate snowstorms just once in the last seven years, and just four times in the last 27 years, according to NWS data.
“It is somewhat rare to get all of those ingredients to combine and line up perfectly, but it looks like that may end up being the case with this one,” Schoettmer said.
After the snowstorm departs the region, it could be a while until the snowpack melts. Schoettmer said an arctic air mass is coming in behind the snowstorm, preventing temperatures from rising above freezing until Thursday, Jan. 29.
“Whatever falls is going to hang for a while,” Schoettmer said.
This story was originally published January 21, 2026 at 1:42 PM.
