Could the 2026 Kentucky Derby be one of the coldest on record? Here’s the forecast

Cold temperatures on the day of the Kentucky Derby will hit near-record lows, according to the National Weather Service.

The lowest temperature Saturday is forecast to hit 38 degrees, which is just 2 degrees warmer than the coldest Derby day on record — May 4, 1957, according to the Weather Service.

The temperature is expected to be warmer than that at race time, though not particularly high — it will be in the mid-50s right around post time, according to the NWS.

Saturday’s average temperatures in the 50s to low 60s are around 15 degrees less than, or “well below,” typical early May temperatures in Louisville, the NWS said.

There’s a “very low” chance of rain for much of the day, according to AccuWeather, and the race is projected to remain generally dry.

That was not the case for the 151st Derby. Last year’s race saw roughly 0.37 inches of rain on race day, resulting in a sloppy track for the first time since 2019. The record for the wettest Kentucky Derby remains 2018, when 3.15 inches of rain fell on race day.

Post time for the 152nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville is 6:57 p.m.