‘Words have consequences and sometimes they are fatal’: Misinformation and COVID-19.
In a fascinating article in the New York Times (April 26, 2020), the Nobel-Prize winning author, Orhan Pamuk, compares the centuries-long history of plagues and the onset of the coronavirus and lists some startling similarities.
His research shows that governments routinely responded to plagues first with denial, and then by delayed and slow responses to the health crises. Governments also reacted with a lot of misinformation and people were wont to spread rumors.
Well, the Trump Administration and much of his propaganda arm at Fox News have followed the historical playbook to a tee. First, it was either a political hoax or just a simple case of the flu that would disappear into thin air with the arrival of warm weather (President Trump and Sean Hannity). Then it was the promotion of an untested (for coronavirus) and potentially harmful drug, hydroxychloroquine, as a treatment (Trump and Laura Ingraham). Next it was the President’s now notorious suggestion that resources be spent to see whether ingesting disinfectants might kill the virus, although in this case Fox News decided not to support Mr. Trump. These are outstanding examples of one of the main commonalities between plagues and the coronavirus that Pamuk identifies, the virus-like spread of misinformation.
But exactly how harmful is this phenomenon? Is it simply a nuisance, or does misinformation cost lives? Thanks to some sophisticated research produced and funded by the Becker-Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago, we have some answers. If those names sound familiar, Gary Becker and Milton Friedman were both Nobel Prize winning economists from the same university.
The authors exploit the fact that two Fox News evening shows, Hannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight, responded very differently to the initial news about the coronavirus. While Carlson warned of the potential dangers of the virus from early February, Hannity first ignored it, then compared it to seasonal flu and said the Democrats were using it as a political weapon. The researchers surveyed 1,500 Republicans (more likely to watch Fox News) over 55 years of age (more likely to be at risk) about the shows they watched on Fox and asked whether they changed behavior (canceled travel plans, washed hands more frequently, practiced social distancing) as a response to the shows they viewed.
Carlson viewers were much more likely to change their behavior than Hannity watchers. The authors examined data on COVID-19 cases and related deaths on a day-by-day basis and took account of many other factors, such as demographics (age, race, education), economic factors (household income), geography and local health care capacity. Their results showed that viewers who watched Hannity more than Carlson were significantly more likely to come down with the virus and also more likely to die. They also found that once Hannity’s views shifted towards those similar to Carlson’s and the community of health professionals about the serious threat of the virus, the difference in outcomes began to dissipate. Misinformation is especially harmful in this case because the median age of Fox viewers is 68. A clear majority of them falls in the high-risk category for the virus.
The article has yet to be peer reviewed, but given the sophistication of the analysis and the significance of its findings, there is a strong prospect it will be published in a reputable academic journal. Trump and Fox will condemn it as “fake news,” but not because they have any substantive criticisms of the analysis. Rest assured they do not. It’s just easy to respond to information they don’t like by crying: “fake news.” Nary a word is ever said in any setting to support this cheap claim. The message of this important paper is that “Words have consequences and sometimes they are fatal ones.”
Dr. Donald J. Mullineaux is an Emeritus Professor in the Gatton College of Business and Economics at the University of Kentucky.
This story was originally published May 13, 2020 at 12:04 PM.