As COVID-19 continues, a masked society is better than one that’s shut down

America needs to face facts – COVID-19 can permanently impair or kill and a vaccine won’t be a magic bullet. The only chance to save our health and economy is universal masking enforced with real penalties.

As of August 8, there are more than 5 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S.. The death rate (deaths per diagnosed case) as of August 8 is 3.2 percent nationwide. However, the percentage of infections resulting in hospitalization are higher than death rates. If infected, about 1 percent of people on their 20s, 8 percent of people in their 50s, and nearly 20 percent of people over 80 require hospitalization. Most who don’t die have permanent heart damage and lung damage. Even if COVID-19 doesn’t put you in the hospital, only 35 percent of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic and one-third of those not hospitalized don’t fully recover, with 71 percent reporting fatigue, 61 percent lasting cough, and 61 percent ongoing headaches.

COVID-19 has mutated into a form easily transferrable and spreading rapidly worldwide. We are just at the beginning of this pandemic. Presently, confirmed cases in the U.S. are less than 2 percent of the population. Unless contained, COVID-19 will spread until 60-80 percent of people (195 to 260 million) either have been infected or have antibodies from a vaccine But COVID-19 is an RNA virus, like the flu, and vaccines for such viruses help only a percentage of those vaccinated (the flu vaccine was less than 50 percent effective in 2019). Also, the effect of COVID-19 antibodies is likely to last only between 3 months and a year. A vaccine 60 percent effective would slow infections, impairments, and deaths, but, as Dr. Fauci recently testified to Congress, COVID-19 is unlikely to be eradicated. Given that a vaccine will protect only a fraction of the populace, failing to stop COVID-19’s spread ASAP means tens of millions of Americans will suffer the harms described above.

Everyone agrees COVID-19 is devastating our economy. Cycles of opening up and shutting down won’t work. The most effective measure to control spread is masking. It protects others from you and to some extent protects you from them. But masking must be nearly universal to work. We need mandatory masking laws enforced with fines, and no exceptions other than medically-certified ones. Most things can be done wearing a mask, including exercise, sports, and singing hymns in church. If masking is universal and enforced, perhaps social distancing rules can be relaxed. People can wear masks in bars and sip through a straw inserted in a slit (yes, it’s not the same, but it can work).

You can’t eat wearing a mask, so restaurants are a real challenge. But dropping rules and letting everyone get in each other’s face won’t fix it, even for restaurants. As COVID-19 spreads, soon people will know someone who had it or died from it and will avoid restaurants and similar group gatherings until COVID is under control. A masked economy isn’t a pre-COVID-19 economy and is harder on some businesses than others, but it’s better than a shutdown.

A major obstacle to universal mandatory masking is COVID-19 hoax anti-masker propaganda in which Trump’s base is emotionally invested. Accepting COVID-19 facts implies their leaders are fools or liars. That’s too hard to swallow, so Trumpers will double down and turn up the volume, as America, now quarantined by much of the world, fights over masking and digs a deeper hole.

But the main obstacle to social support for masking, whatever your political persuasion, is failure to appreciate the seriousness of COVID-19. Even Trumpers don’t want to be permanently impaired or die, but they don’t believe they will. Unfortunately, only as deaths and hospitalizations increase will universal mandatory masking receive the support it deserves.

Mike Wilson is a lawyer, professor, and author of Arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic, political poetry for a post-truth world.