Big energy changes should be through free market, not the Green New Deal or its ilk
The U.S. emits 15 percent of global emissions and should achieve a 22 percent reduction by 2025 against the 26 percent Paris Accord target. China emits twice the U.S. emissions total while adding huge coal fired plants until its Paris Accord peak target is met by 2030. U.S. emissions sources are transportation 28 percent, electricity generation 27 percent, industry 22 percent, agriculture 10 percent, commercial 7 percent and residential 6 percent, according to data from the Union of Concerned Scientists and the EPA.
Many billions of dollars are being spent reducing carbon emissions, replacing coal fired generating plants with natural gas. Utilities have replaced more than 110 of the 400 while adding wind and solar power. The aggressive replacement completion goal is 2035 and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Large oil companies are also participating in renewable energy development. Utility rates continue to rise to fund the transformation.
The 2020 Democratic Platform sets unrealistic goals of eliminating all carbon pollution from power plants by 2035, achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions for all new buildings by 2030, and all greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Platform is Green New Deal-lite and unacceptable to advocates. The 2050 target does require GND actions.
”Within five years 500 million solar panels will be installed, including eight million solar roofs and community solar energy systems, and 60,000 wind turbines,” the plan says. (Turbine cost is $3 to $4 million each with yearly maintenance of $45,000 and will last 15 to 20 years). Germany has been transitioning to wind and solar for ten years and will need to expand by 15 times to meet 2050 goals. On sunny and windy days some generating units are shut down while on low sun and wind days carbon fueled back up is used. Electricity cost in Germany is twice that of France that uses 70 percent clean Nuclear Power.
According to the Democratic platform: “There will be a transitioning of the entire fleet of 500,000 school buses to American-made, zero-emission alternatives within five years.” With 287 million vehicles registered in the US in 2019, the 500K school bus replacements would not have significant reduction in transportation emissions and is not realistic.
Eliminating carbon emissions from all transportation to net zero by 2050 requires replacement of 278 million vehicles and the power conversion of commercial and military aircraft, ships, rail, farm, and construction equipment. Meeting the target would reduce the US emissions from 15 percent to 9 percent at a cost of trillions over a period of 30 years. Achieving agriculture emissions goals requires a complete redesign of our agriculture system to become a net absorber of carbon using massive government investment and elimination of large farms. The US could see a15% reduction in global emissions while the rest of the world could increase. GND activists advocate the elimination of clean nuclear power, fracking and oil and gas industry. Nuclear is clean with power plants lifespan of 30 to 40 years or more.
The U.S. should continue to encourage and support free enterprise progress with targeted incentives to accelerate and expand actions already being implemented by utilities, vehicle manufacturers, home builders, oil and gas companies and agriculture. Utilities will continue the replacement of coal with natural gas, wind and solar. Vehicle manufacturers will continue R&D of EVs to bring price down to affordable levels. Financial support should be focused on improving the life of those who are financially disadvantaged and not cripple the economy with unrealistic and ineffective government regulations. Support science and technology but results and timing cannot be legislated.
Ronald Turkett is President of Ann Arbor Technology Group LLC, a global supply chain consulting company based in Lexington.