‘We are so close.’ Let’s not play Russian roulette with our nursing homes and COVID.

As of mid-March, approximately 10 percent of the United States being fully vaccinated and another 20 percent having received at least one dose, we should be well on our way to stopping this pandemic. But as I warned in a Nov. 19, 2020 Herald Leader Op-Ed, this virus mutates; and unfortunately a flurry of mutations have since occurred and invaded the United States, slowing our path to recovery.

The most prevalent, the UK variant is up to 70 percent more infectious and may be over 60 percent more lethal. Thus, without vaccines, we would be little better off than we were this time last year. And with other variants looming, we really have not accomplished much. And at least one variant originating in Brazil, appears to cause frequent reinfections which have devastated the Brazilian town of Manaus, negating the herd immunity earned by COVID-19 survivors.

The good news is that research strongly indicates that our vaccines will stop SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, including the known variants, dead in their tracks. Hence, we are in a race between vaccinating our citizens and the spread of these variants. Fully opening our economy with the gathering of large numbers of people and traveling long distances may cause us to lose this race and endure another large surge. That is what is currently happening in Europe, and we may well suffer the same fate.

The Texas Rangers allowing a full capacity stadium at next month’s opening game may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And young healthy unvaccinated college students traveling to Florida for spring break may well spread the variants throughout our nation. At the same time, we are relaxing nursing home restrictions, which potentially can expose our most vulnerable to another onslaught of COVID-19.

Newly revised CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) recommendations for Nursing Home indoor visitations (regardless of the vaccination status of visitors and residents) seem almost nonsensical. The community safety benchmark of a 10 percent test positive rate is far too high, twice that as found in WHO recommendations and more than the average national positivity rate seen during the August COVID-19 surge. And questionable safety is achieved by using a benchmark of 70 percent of facility residents being vaccinated, since this benchmark is based upon preventing community spread, not for spread indoors with individuals residing in close proximity. If there is just one non-immune individual and one asymptomatic carrier in a nursing home setting, the probability of spread is high. With loud talking this virus can aerosolize, allowing it to live for hours and float throughout a facility.

There are even recommendations for allowing indoor visitations during a COVID-19 outbreak within the facility. These recommendations largely rely on sequestering COVID-19 patients in a section of an indoor facility. However, without controlled air flow and sanitization, viral aerosolization can easily defeat this strategy.

But most perplexing is the reliance on testing to determine when it is safe to resume visitations. We all saw how well testing performed in preventing the White House’s Rose Garden superspreader event. The virus has too long of an incubation period to reliably clear individuals suspected of exposure. All at risk need to be quarantined for 14 days and if no new infections arise, then visitations could resume.

What needs to be done to assure safe visitations for nursing home residents is simple. Get vaccinated. A much safer and less concerning environment will be created, if residents, staff and visitors become vaccinated.

Since COVID-19 vaccines are being administered under an FDA Emergency Use Authorization, they have not been formally approved. Thus, vaccination mandates for the public are not in the near future. However, I do not believe there is a right for unvaccinated staff to work in a nursing home, and in the process place medically frail individuals in peril.

We are so close to stopping this virus from spreading, so let’s not play Russian roulette with our grandparents and with others who are at high risk for severe COVID-19 infections. We have already lost over 500,000 souls to COVID-19 and we are on the verge of stopping this pandemic. Let’s undertake strict public health strategies for just a few more weeks and allow our race with vaccinations win out over the spread of variants.

Kevin Kavanagh is the founder of Health Watch USA.