As another variant emerges in Europe, it’s too soon to let down guard against COVID.

It seems most of the nation has declared the pandemic all but over. In Kentucky, as of March 22, New York Times data showed the 14 day case average was down by 25%. However, Eastern Kentucky is telling a different story. In Casey County, the 14 day case average was up 232%, Wayne County Up 57%, Laurel County was up 54% and Russell County up 37%. Over a 7-day period, all of these counties had new infections between 82 to 129 per 100,000.

Even as measured using the CDC’s relaxed guidelines, many counties in Eastern Kentucky are still in the CDC’s “RED” Zone. These new guidelines are primarily based on hospital utilization and largely ignore the risks that high viral levels pose to the development of long COVID with even mild infections, and of severe disease in the many Kentuckians who have an immunological disorder.

Despite falling rates, ominous signs are starting to emerge. A new variant, BA.2, has invaded the United States and is causing worrisome surges in Europe. This variant is called Stealth Omicron, a name which makes it sound as if it has little difference from Omicron, the variant which caused our most recent surge. But nothing could be further from the truth. BA.2 is a highly mutated virus. Having 31 mutations, it is as much different from Omicron, as the Alpha Variant is different from the wild-type original virus. Not much is known for sure about the BA.2 variant, but what is agreed upon is that it is highly infectious, possibly 80% more infectious than Omicron. In other words, as infectious as measles. Predicting severity of illness is difficult, since the vast majority of individuals have varying immunity to the virus.

In the two weeks ending on March 19, the national total infection rate had fallen by 37%, but the percentage of BA.2 in newly infected individuals more than doubled with a 177% increase.

In Europe, several countries are having a resurgence of COVID-19 due to the BA.2 variant. These countries include the United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, Finland and Switzerland. In the United Kingdom, this resurgence started approximately two weeks after COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.

In the United States, only 65% of the population has received a 2-dose vaccine, lower than European countries. In Kentucky, this figure is even lower at 57%.(9) Only 25% of Kentuckians have received a booster. As discussed in a recent Herald Leader OpEd, the immunity produced by boosters to prevent infections is waning in just a few months. In response, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna has applied for an FDA emergency use authorization to give a second booster.

We must prevent as many COVID-19 infections as possible. 10% to 30% of patients can develop long COVID. Up to 60% can experience a loss of smell. New research published in Nature found the loss of smell in many patients is from the viruses’ propensity to infect the brain. The researchers also observed a loss of grey matter and decreased cognition. This observation may explain the frequent complaints of “brain fog”. Complaints regarding cognitive function occur in approximately 70% of patients with long COVID-19.

We are now over two years from the start of the pandemic and immunity from vaccines and natural infections is waning. The virus is becoming endemic. We must determine the level of the virus we can tolerate and change the way we live with the virus to achieve this level. Kentucky has lost over 14,000 lives, and as calculated by insurance allowables, we have provided over 1 billion dollars in COVID-19 hospital care alone, not counting outpatient or care for those with COVID disabilities.

The BA.2 Variant may well cause another surge. At this point, we should not let down our guard and relax mitigation strategies. We must respect others, some of whom we wear a mask to protect, but above all, get vaccinated along with obtaining boosters when indicated.

Kevin Kavanagh is the founder of HealthWatch USA.