Both political parties should be clear on what the results really mean | Opinion

One of the most dangerous mistakes you can make in politics is misreading the results of elections, and the Democratic Party’s drastic misinterpretation of Presidential elections since 2008 has resulted in the first Republican popular vote victory in two decades.

Now, it’s up to Republicans to not make the same mistake and up to Democrats to realize their error and correct course. That said, I believe there are two key takeaways: the economy eclipses everything, and the United States is a center-right nation.

Let’s start with the economy. The ragin’ Cajun James Carville remains correct — it’s the economy, stupid. The 2008, 2012, 2020, and now 2024 elections have primarily been reactions to the economy. Through the banking and auto industry collapses, times of economic boom, struggles to contain the economic damage from COVID, and now inflation, the economy has been the deciding factor in four of the last five Presidential elections. Despite the Biden and then Harris campaign’s efforts to convince Americans that inflation had ended and that the economy was back on track, it’s just not being reflected at the grocery store, on utility bills, or in home prices. Voters clearly punished Democrats for it.

For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about social issues, foreign relations, and scandals in this campaign, it’s the economy, stupid; and Harris never had a chance.

That said, when you look at the numbers from last night and the width and breadth of the Republican win, I don’t think you can say the economy was the sole factor. I believe there was another factor at play.

The United States is a center-right country filled with fiscal conservatives and social moderates. However, since Barack Obama’s triumph over John McCain in 2008, Democrats, along with allies in popular culture, an overwhelmingly left-leaning national media apparatus, and tenured ivory-tower educators have tried to will into existence what they believed to be a shift towards a center-left national identity.

As a result, the nation is at war with itself over, frankly, kind of ridiculous things.

Despite what we may be told by Democrats and their allies, government doesn’t create wealth, people and businesses do. Abortion is a legitimate medical procedure but should be limited and regulated. Decriminalizing vandalism, shoplifting, and other petty crimes isn’t social justice, it’s lawlessness. Our country should be welcoming to immigrants of all stripes, but there’s a legal way to do it and criminals are not welcome. There’s nothing wrong with being transgender, but if your hormone levels and physiology say your male, it’s unfair to compete in women’s sports. None of these should be controversial statements but not only have we been told they’re wrong, people have lost their livelihoods, homes, and families for publicly expressing them.

Exit polling shows historic gains by Republicans among Hispanics, African Americans, Asian Americans, and nearly every other demographic. These are groups who, historically, tend to be people of faith and generally center-right, if not conservative, on many social issues. The win may have been about the economy, but the margin was a message to Democrats.

We should have seen this coming. While 2008 and 2012 were certainly about the economy, 2016 was the canary in the coal mine for 2024. Trump ran then on rejecting the lurch left led by Democrats during the Obama years and won a narrow victory. Democrats blamed it on Russia and a poorly run Clinton campaign and, after 2020, picked right back up with their long march to the left.

2020 will always be an outlier for several reasons but, after 2024, there may have been a broader lesson from 2016 that Democrats chose to ignore; a decision that led to November 5, 2024.

The economy will wax and wane as it always has, but we are, and remain, a center-right nation. Democrats are learning that lesson the hard way. Now, it’s incumbent upon Republicans not to overreact and realize Americans want moderation, not extremism. Time will tell if that message will be received.

Tres Watson is a Republican consultant in Lexington and host of the Kentucky Politics Weekly podcast.