Kentucky’s energy transition needs honest strategy, not familiar promises | Opinion

I write this from Pikeville, in the heart of Eastern Kentucky. Coal built this region. It powered the commonwealth, paid the bills, and sustained generations of families. No one here needs reminding of that history. But we also know — firsthand — that repeating yesterday’s promises has not delivered tomorrow’s prosperity.

That is why the Kentucky Energy Transition report deserves serious consideration. It is not anti-coal, nor is it ideological. It focuses on reliability, affordability, and risk—the fundamentals that matter most to households, employers, and utilities alike. Winter Storm Elliott offers a clear lesson: the failure was not a simple shortage of capacity on paper. Fuel deliverability problems, especially natural-gas pipeline pressure loss, combined with unit outages and derates to create a cascading reliability event. Elliott demonstrated that reliability is a systems problem, not a political one.

Those lessons should guide Kentucky’s energy future.

They are largely absent from Congressman Andy Barr’s newly announced “coal-first” energy agenda. While Barr is right to emphasize Kentucky’s workforce, industrial sites, and energy heritage, his proposal rests too heavily on the assumption that coal-fired power alone can once again anchor the commonwealth’s economy.

From Eastern Kentucky, that sounds familiar.

Coal-fired electricity in the United States is in structural decline. Kentucky still relies on coal for roughly two-thirds of its net generation — among the highest shares in the nation — but that reliance is shrinking. Since 2014, approximately 5,800 megawatts of coal-fired capacity have been retired in Kentucky, even as about 8,600 megawatts remain in operation. These closures are driven primarily by economics: aging units are increasingly costly to maintain, and face sustained competitive pressure from alternative resources.

Advanced industries and AI-driven data centers — the growth sectors often cited as coal’s next opportunity — operate on different timelines. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates data centers consumed roughly 4.4% of U.S. electricity in 2023 and could reach between 6.7% and 12% by 2028. That growth is fueling a national “speed-to-power” race that prioritizes firm reliability and predictable pricing. These industries are unlikely to wait years for legacy coal plants to be rebuilt or accept exposure to congested grids and volatile retail rates.

This is where energy policy must be honest.

Large industrial loads place enormous strain on electric systems. Without dedicated or off-grid generation, those costs are often shifted onto existing customers. Regulators are increasingly warning that, without strong cost-causation rules, grid and generation upgrades for large data-center loads can drive up residential electric bills.

Rejecting nostalgia, however, does not mean rejecting coal.

A realistic strategy recognizes that coal’s future increasingly lies in innovation rather than combustion alone. Research supported by the Department of Energy and U.S. Geological Survey has identified significant quantities of rare earth elements and critical minerals in coal, fly ash and other coal waste streams—materials essential to defense systems, batteries, and advanced manufacturing. Coal-derived carbon products are already used in steelmaking and advanced materials. These pathways allow coal regions to remain energy regions while aligning with modern markets.

Today’s energy policy is not merely economic — it is strategic. America’s competitors are expanding energy capacity across multiple sources to guarantee uninterrupted power for manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies. Energy, in this context, is sovereignty.

Kentucky should approach its energy future with that same seriousness. The Energy Transition report offers a credible foundation. Congressman Barr’s proposal raises important questions but relies too heavily on familiar rhetoric. What coal country deserves is straight talk paired with vision — policies grounded in reality that protect ratepayers, invest in innovation, and position Eastern Kentucky for what comes next.

That is not anti-coal. It is pro-Kentucky — and long overdue.

A lifelong conservative Republican and ardent supporter of President Trump, Roger Ford is a national thought leader in energy development as national security. He holds a Master’s in National Security and leads Eureka Energy Corporation from his home in Pikeville.