Kentucky baseball looks like a lock for the NCAA Tournament entering regular-season finale
By at least one metric, Kentucky baseball’s 2023 season can already be considered a success.
Just more than a year ago in the wake of the Wildcats missing the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive season (there was no tournament in 2020), UK Athletics Director Mitch Barnhart laid out a clear vision for what he needed to see from Nick Mingione’s program.
“We’ve talked about we were a couple wins short these last three or four years of getting in the tournament,” Barnhart said. “Well, let’s not talk about two wins. Let’s talk about let’s go get six wins and leave no doubt. That’s what I told (Mingione).”
Entering the final weekend of the regular season, Mingione’s squad appears to have done just that.
Ranked No. 1 in the RPI and having already clinched at least a .500 record in SEC play, Kentucky looks like a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Instead of heading to the SEC Tournament in Hoover, Alabama, next week looking to secure an at-large bid, Kentucky’s aim for the next two weeks is to secure a hosting spot for the opening weekend of the tournament and possibly even a top-eight national seed.
Two weeks after sweeping No. 10 South Carolina at Kentucky Proud Park, the Wildcats have a chance at another résumé-boosting series win starting Thursday against No. 3 Florida in Lexington. The No. 20 Wildcats are coming off a series loss at No. 19 Tennessee but did salvage something from the weekend with a 10-0 win on Sunday.
Here is a closer look at what is at stake for Kentucky in the final regular-season weekend.
SEC Tournament seeding
As outlined by Wildcats Today, Kentucky can finish anywhere from the second to fifth seed in the SEC Tournament based on this weekend’s results. The scenarios that are at play are still too numerous to outline, but the only thing Kentucky can control is winning as many games as possible against Florida, which is still in the hunt for the regular-season title. Earning a top-four seed is important as those teams avoid the single-elimination round for teams seeded sixth through 12th.
“Obviously, if you don’t have to play on Tuesday, that’s just one less arm that you have to use,” Mingione said Wednesday. “You’re guaranteed to play a couple games. To be in that top-four seed is what every team in our league would want. It’s extremely important, especially from the pitching side.”
Hosting an NCAA Tournament regional
Entering the Tennessee series, D1Baseball.com projected Kentucky as the No. 8 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky needs to be one of the top-16 seeds to host in the first weekend. A top-eight seed would mean Kentucky also is guaranteed to host a super regional if it advances out of the first weekend. At this point a regional hosting spot seems likely, barring a complete collapse over the last two weeks. The first postseason series at Kentucky Proud Park would surely bring the type of environment needed to help spur the Wildcats to the second super regional in program history.
“When you look at just about every team in our league, this weekend we’re all trying to get to the next level,” Mingione said. “Whether that’s make the tournament, whether that’s be a regional host, whether that’s be a national seed or the one seed. There’s always another level, but obviously thankful.
“We talked about that at media day. We wanted to get to a spot where we’re five games ahead, trying to be talking about maybe bringing something to Kentucky Proud Park. It’s definitely better this way.”
Stabilizing the rotation
Reaching the program’s 10th NCAA Tournament has to be considered a success, but if Kentucky wants to advance to its second super regional, better starting pitching will likely be needed. Kentucky’s three starters against Tennessee — Travis Smith, Tyler Bosma and Zack Lee — have a combined 5.50 ERA in SEC play.
Smith, a redshirt freshman, might be the best hope for improvement. After moving into the weekend rotation prior to the South Carolina series, Smith surrendered just one run in six innings in a win over the Gamecocks. He was unable to carry that success to Tennessee, where he surrendered six runs in two innings, but a strong showing against Florida would be a nice confidence boost for Smith heading into postseason play.
The staff will also receive a boost this weekend from the return of reliever Seth Chavez and former weekend starter Logan Martin from injuries.
“Logan is not going to be able to throw four or five innings like he did earlier in the year, but he’ll be available this weekend,” Mingione said. “Now I feel like we finally have all of our pieces back — and they’re healthy. It’s been awhile since we’ve had that, so I feel really good.”
Next series
Florida at Kentucky
When: 6:30 p.m. Thursday and Friday; 2 p.m. Saturday
Where: Kentucky Proud Park
TV: SEC Plus (online only)
Radio: WLAP-AM 630
Records: Florida 40-12 (18-9 SEC) Kentucky 35-15 (15-12)