As UK baseball welcomes No. 2 Texas to town, Cats sit on NCAA Tournament bubble
If Kentucky baseball is to follow up the first College World Series appearance in program history with another NCAA Tournament run, there is work to do.
This weekend’s series against No. 2 Texas at Kentucky Proud Park represents the midway point of the SEC schedule. Nick Mingione’s Wildcats enter the weekend 18-12 overall and 5-7 in SEC play.
Kentucky is ranked 40th in the RPI and was included as one of the last four teams in the field in the most recent NCAA Tournament projections from Baseball America and D1Baseball.com.
Coming off back-to-back extra inning losses to No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 14 Louisville, Kentucky faces a daunting challenge against a Texas team with just four losses on the season. The series marks the midpoint of a three week stretch against three straight SEC opponents ranked in the top six of D1Baseball’s top 25. Next week, Kentucky travels to No. 5 Tennessee.
The schedule eases up slightly after Tennessee with SEC series against South Carolina and Mississippi State, who have a combined 5-19 record in SEC play, but UK’s postseason hopes would look much better with at least a couple wins in the next two weekends.
Here’s a closer look at where things stand with the Wildcats.
Pitching questions remain
In SEC games, Kentucky ranks 12th of 16 teams in ERA (6.63). There were at least a few signs of progress in last week’s series against Ole Miss, but only one reliever with at least 10 innings pitched on the season has an ERA below 4.13.
Sophomore Ben Cleaver has looked like an ace with a 3-1 record, 2.36 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 42 innings. South Dakota State transfer Nic McCay has been Kentucky’s second-most reliable starter with a 3-0 record and 3.44 ERA, but he has a 7.63 ERA in SEC play. McCay did post his best SEC start yet last week with one run in four innings against Ole Miss.
Freshman Nate Harris moved into the weekend rotation against Ole Miss, contributing 3 2/3 scoreless innings. His emergence could stabilize the rotation, but the bullpen remains in flux.
Robert Hogan, UK’s top reliever in the 2024 College World Series run, has struggled this season with a 13.50 ERA in eight appearances. Indiana State transfer Simon Gregersen, who was expected to compete for the closer role, has a 7.63 ERA in 10 appearances. No reliever has multiple saves.
Left-handed reliever Jackson Nove was dominant early in the season but has surrendered runs in five of six SEC appearances. Two-way player James McCoy appears to have worked his way into leverage relief innings with just one run allowed in 10 2/3 innings.
A familiar offensive style
By now, Kentucky fans know what kind of offense Nick Mingione wants to feature. Preseason hopes for a more-rounded attack have not played out yet, but Kentucky ranks second in the SEC in stolen bases and leads the league in hit-by-pitches and sacrifice bunts. UK ranks 15th in home runs.
Left fielder Cole Hage, a transfer from Columbia, leads the team in batting average (.346), home runs (nine), runs scored (35) and stolen bases (11). Freshman shortstop Tyler Bell, the highest-drafted player in 2024 to attend college this season, has more than lived up to the hype with a .322 average, five home runs and a team-best 31 RBI. After spending most of the 2024 College World Series run on the bench, infielder Patrick Herrera has taken a step forward with a .333 average and more walks (16) than strikeouts (15).
Kentucky will need those players to continue to lead the way for a second-half surge in SEC play, but it would not be a surprise to see the offensive stats dip due to the quality of pitching the Wildcats will face the next two weekends. This does not look like a team built to win pitching duels at the moment, so the offense will need to prove its early season success can be sustained against SEC powers.
Hage is hitting just .250 in SEC play but does have five home runs. The good news is catcher Devin Burkes appears to be rediscovering his 2023 form after struggling at the play for much of last year with a .326 batting average, three home runs and 14 RBIs in SEC play.
This weekend
No. 2 Texas at Kentucky
Friday: 6:30 p.m. (SEC Network+)
Saturday: Noon (SEC Network)
Sunday: Noon (SEC Network)