‘Anything is possible.’ Even analytics master Pomeroy missed on Evansville.
Include statistics savant Ken Pomeroy among those stunned by Kentucky’s loss to Evansville on Tuesday night. College basketball’s preeminent cruncher of numbers gave Evansville a 1 percent chance of beating UK. There was about the same possibility that he’d be interested in watching the game.
“It takes a lot to suck me into that kind of game,” he said Thursday. “You rarely see the upset in that situation. So, it took me a while to tune in the second half.”
When asked why he had not taken the final step and made a Kentucky victory a 100 percent certainty, Pomeroy chuckled and said, “I think you saw it. You know, almost anything is possible in college basketball.”
One of Pomeroy’s 99 percent favorites had not lost since Feb. 25, 2017. That’s when undefeated and No. 1-ranked Gonzaga lost at home to Brigham Young 79-71.
Pomeroy, a weather forecaster before diving deep into basketball numerology, has gone to 100 percent certainty. He gave himself no wiggle room in assuring an Evansville victory over an NAIA school, Indiana University Kokomo, Thursday night. (Evansville won 89-71.)
But a 100 percent certainty is rare for games between two Division I teams, Pomeroy said. He surely strained his slide rule in judging a Purdue victory over Chicago State on Saturday a 99.98 percent certitude.
When asked how he could be so precise, Pomeroy said, “I probably can’t. I just want to distinguish between 100 percent and everything else. Just in case something crazy happens. I want people to understand something crazy is possible.
That 99.98 percent certainty of Chicago State not beating Purdue translates to a 1-in-10,000 chance. Or as Pomeroy rounded it off, “pretty unlikely.”
Despite the loss to Evansville, Pomeroy’s calculations have Kentucky going on a winning streak. But he has given himself slightly more wiggle room in some games.
Victories over Utah Valley on Monday, Mount St. Mary’s next Friday and Fairleigh Dickinson on Dec. 7 remained 99 percent likely. Pomeroy moved the UK victory over Lamar on Nov. 24 from 99 percent likely to 99.6.
But the victory over UAB on Nov. 29 changed from 97 to 96 percent likely. And the chances of a victory over Georgia Tech on Dec. 14 changed from 92 to 89 percent.
When asked if the slight changes were due to Kentucky’s loss to Evansville, Pomeroy said, “Absolutely. There’s a direct relationship there. Yeah, just a slight reassessment.”
Dip ahead
How far will Kentucky fall in The Associated Press top 25 poll to be announced Monday?
No team has dropped farther from No. 1 than Florida did in December of 2003. The Gators fell to No. 15 after losing to Maryland at home and at Louisville in a four-day period.
UNLV in 1982-83 and North Carolina in 2016-17 are tied for the second-biggest drop from No. 1. Both fell to No. 9.
UNLV got to No. 1 by winning the first 24 games of 1982-83. Then the Rebels lost at Cal State Fullerton and at West Virginia in a four-day period and fell to No. 9.
North Carolina fell to No. 9 after a loss at Indiana.
New No. 1
Michigan State was No. 1 in the preseason poll. Then Kentucky beat the Spartans and became the new No. 1.
There figures to be a new No. 1 for a third straight poll.
The record for a change at No. 1 in consecutive polls is seven. From Jan. 3 to Feb. 14, 1994, teams ranked first were Arkansas, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, North Carolina and Arkansas.
In the preseason, ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said he expected to see multiple teams ranked No. 1 in 2019-20. The record for the most different No. 1 teams in a season is seven. Houston, Indiana, Memphis, UNLV, North Carolina, UCLA and Virginia were ranked No. 1 during the 1982-83 season.
It happens
Evansville’s Sam Cunliffe called the victory over Kentucky “amazing.” And “unbelievable.” And “surreal.”
But it wasn’t unprecedented.
No. 1-ranked teams have lost to unranked opponents 63 times since The Associated Press began ranking the top 25 teams in the 1948-49 season. Of those 63 games, 32 were played on the No. 1 team’s homecourt.
Kentucky is no stranger to the combination of homecourt advantage and loftiest of ranking not resulting in victory.
The 67-64 loss to Evansville was the third time a No. 1-ranked Kentucky team lost to an unranked opponent in Lexington.
No. 1 UK lost in Memorial Coliseum to unranked Georgia Tech 59-58 on Jan. 8, 1955. Despite the loss, Kentucky remained No. 1 for another month.
Unranked Auburn beat No. 1 Kentucky 53-52 in Rupp Arena on Jan. 9, 1988. Sophomore John Caylor made the winning three-point shot for Auburn with 10 seconds left. UK would not be ranked first again until January of 1993.
… and happens
Other times an unranked opponent has shocked the college basketball world by beating the No. 1-ranked team include:
Chaminade, an NAIA school, beating No. 1 Virginia 77-72 in Honolulu on Dec. 24, 1982. That’s arguably the biggest shocker.
Villanova beating defending national champion Georgetown 66-64 in the 1985 NCAA Tournament finals, which was played in Rupp Arena.
Speaking of the NCAA Tournament, unranked UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) upset No. 1 Virginia in a first-round game in 2018. It was the first time a 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed.
Ken Pomeroy said he had set the chances of Virginia beating UMBC at 97 percent.
Peers stumble, too
Kentucky’s peers at the pinnacle of college basketball are not immune to losing at home to unranked opponents while ranked first.
North Carolina has lost six home games to unranked opponents while ranked No. 1: to Wake Forest in 1982, to Maryland in 1986 and 2008, to Georgia Tech in 1994, to N.C. State in 1998 and to Boston College in 2009.
No. 1 Duke lost to unranked Syracuse at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Jan. 14 of last season.
And No. 1 Kansas lost to unranked Long Beach State in Allen Fieldhouse in 1993.
‘Real losers’
Reader and regular email correspondent Ernie Henninger offered his take on Kentucky’s loss to Evansville.
“The real losers last night are the wizards who had the chutzpah to rank the top 25 teams, in order, even before college basketball gets past its version of Spring Training,” he wrote.
Cat vs. Cat
One former UK player will be coaching against another former UK player Tuesday when Manhattan plays at Samford.
Steve Masiello, who was on UK’s team from 1996-97 through 1999-2000, is Manhattan’s coach. Scott Padgett (1994-95 through 1998-99) is Samford’s coach.
“It’s a lot of mixed emotions,” Masiello said. “But at the end of the day, it’s what I call good problems. I was in Scott’s wedding. He’s a dear friend.”
There’s another Kentucky connection. Former UK assistant Shawn Finney is on Padgett’s staff at Samford. Masiello started his coaching career as an assistant for Finney at Tulane. Later, Finney and Padgett were assistants on Masiello’s staff at Manhattan.
Another Cat-versus-Cat coaching matchup comes Wednesday when Travis Ford-led Saint Louis plays High Point, which is led by former UK Coach Tubby Smith.
Happy birthday
To Twany Beckham. He turned 31 on Thursday. … To Jared Prickett. He turned 46 on Thursday. … To Karl-Anthony Towns. He turned 24 on Friday. … To Charles Matthews. He turned 23 on Friday. … To Clarence Tillman. He turned 59 on Friday. … To former Auburn coach Sonny Smith. He turned 83 on Friday. … To Alex Legion. He turned 31 on Saturday. … To Syracuse Coach Jim Boeheim. He turns 75 on Sunday (today). … To Tom Payne. He turns 69 on Tuesday. … To Arkansas Coach Eric Musselman. He turns 55 on Tuesday. … To Louie Dampier. He turns 75 on Wednesday.
This story was originally published November 15, 2019 at 1:12 PM.
