One of UK’s greatest shooters says current Cats can get better at three-pointers
To those hoping Kentucky’s three-point shooting shows dramatic — and exquisitely timed — improvement Saturday against archrival Louisville, here are some sobering numbers:
Louisville ranks 15th nationally in three-point defense. Opponents have made only 26.7 percent of their three-point shots. Of course, Kentucky is the resistible force going against this immovable object. UK ranks 345th in average number of three-point shots made (4.5 per game) and 326th in shooting accuracy from beyond the arc (27.8 percent).
Whatever happens in Rupp Arena, two long-term college basketball observers said that the three months remaining in the season give Kentucky plenty of time to improve its three-point shooting.
ESPN analyst Jay Bilas cited Nate Sestina’s breakout shooting game against Ohio State to make this point.
“What was Sestina shooting before he went into the Ohio State game?” Bilas asked. Answer: Sestina had made three of 13 three-point shots (23.1-percent accuracy). Then his improvement was a supernova against the Buckeyes as he made five of eight.
Former UK All-American Kevin Grevey, who made 51.7 percent of his shots as a college player in the era before the three-pointer, agreed that there’s time for Kentucky to improve.
“It’s a challenge,” he said, “and it’s a test. But they can definitely get better. There’s too much talent there. You’re not going to jump any higher. You’re not going to be any quicker.
“But, man, you can certainly be a better shooter (by March). Good shooters can become great shooters. Bad shooters can become average shooters. C’mon.”
Except for Sestina’s 5-for-8 shooting against Ohio State, Kentucky was a collection of bad three-point shooters in Las Vegas. Other than Sestina, UK players made four of 32 three-point shots. That’s 12.5-percent accuracy.
“They’re a lot better than that,” Grevey said. “When they make 12 of 20 (in a future game), they’re probably not as good as that. It’ll even out. It’ll come.”
Former UK player Mike Pratt, who does color commentary on radio broadcasts of Kentucky games, said much the same thing when subbing for Calipari on the first half of the coach’s radio show this week.
How good a three-point shooting team is Kentucky?
“Great? I doubt that,” Pratt told the radio audience. “But they can be very solid (to the extent) where you have to guard them.”
‘A little’ doubt
Assessing a three-point shooter goes beyond simply shooting ability, Bilas said. Is the shooter unguarded? Is the shot contested? Which player is taking the shot? From what spot on the court?
Calipari all but threw up his hands after UK made two of 17 three-point shots in the loss to Utah. “I don’t know the answer,” he said. Since then, he’s returned to the practice-makes-perfect (or at least more competent) adage by repeatedly advising players to spend more off time in a gym shooting. To which Grevey said, “If I want those shots to go down, I’m going to shoot for hours and hours and hours.”
There’s another factor to consider: confidence. After the Utah game, Calipari used the word “timid” to describe what he saw on some shot attempts.
Grevey, who said he saw “a little bit” of doubt in some shots Kentucky took in Las Vegas, likened timidity to a kid playing right field in a Little League game.
“‘Don’t hit the ball to me. Oh, God. Please don’t hit it. I might miss it,’” Grevey said the kid in his analogy might be thinking. “You’ll never make a shot that way.”
Back to UK basketball shooting, Grevey said, “I see guys catch it and they’re not ready to let it rip.”
After the Ohio State game, Calipari said he was trying to persuade players to adopt what sounded like a shooting mantra. Say the word “straight” while in the shooting motion or the name of a high school you had a good game against.
“Because (in) the mentality of shooting, you cannot be afraid if you miss one or two, then pass on the next three,” Calipari said. “Because you kill your team.”
Then there’s the tightrope coaches must walk. Shooting must be addressed, but if too much is made of this needed improvement, do you create a mental block?
Bilas, who said timidity can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, seemed to have no patience for the idea of a coach being cautious about creating a so-called white elephant in the room.
“It’s not like they’re juggling hand grenades out there,” Bilas said of the three-point shots. “Take the shot. And take it to make it.”
As for the greater distance on the three-point shot this season (from 20 feet, 9 inches to 22 feet, 1 3/4 inches), Division I teams had made 33.5 percent of three-point shots as of Tuesday. That’s down only 1 percentage point from last season. UK’s 26.7-percent accuracy this season is more dramatically down from last season’s 35.4 percent. The worst three-point shooting in Calipari’s previous 10 seasons as coach came in 2009-10: 33.1 percent.
Calipari has said repeatedly that UK’s goal is to shoot, say, 19 to 22 three-point shots in a game and make six to eight. So far, UK is averaging 16 three-point shots and 4.5 three-point baskets.
“Big game (is making) 10,” he said on the radio show Monday. “Bad game five. And then we’ll be fine.”
Next game
No. 3 Louisville at No. 19 Kentucky
When: 3:45 p.m. Saturday
TV: CBS-27
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Records: Louisville 11-1, Kentucky 8-3
Series: Kentucky leads 36-16.
Last meeting: Kentucky won 71-58 on Dec. 29, 2018, at Louisville.
