Nick Richards has worked his way into the NBA Draft discussion. How high can he go?
For most of this college basketball season, two Kentucky Wildcats have remained fairly steady in ESPN’s projections for this year’s NBA Draft.
Freshman guard Tyrese Maxey has been floating around the back end of ESPN’s top 10. He was No. 6 overall in the new mock draft released by the website last week.
Sophomore guard Ashton Hagans has shuffled throughout the second round, coming in at No. 36 overall in ESPN’s latest update.
That new mock draft also included a new Wildcat.
Junior center Nick Richards, whose NBA stock was all but dismissed a year ago, is now the No. 50 overall player on ESPN’s board. And, despite his relatively advanced age, by draft standards, and a rocky start to his college career — punctuated by constant mistakes, early hooks from John Calipari, and dejected looks from Richards himself — there’s still room for the Wildcats’ beloved big man to climb up the charts.
“I think he’s having a great year. It’s been really fun to see his development and just the way that he’s blossomed into one of the best big men in college basketball,” ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony told the Herald-Leader. “As we know, there’s kind of a tendency to look past guys who are 21, 22 years old and they don’t reach their full potential right away, in their first two seasons. Especially since — it felt like — his sophomore year was almost worse than his freshman year. And he was so inconsistent with his approach, and you could see the look on his face sometimes — like he had almost given up himself. So it’s hard for us not to give up on him when it didn’t look like he really believed in himself, either.
“I think, beyond the improvements he’s made on the court, it seems like something has really clicked for him, mentally, as well. And just developing that self-confidence and to play through mistakes, and also that mental toughness that not everybody has to play at a place like Kentucky. It’s so much pressure. And Cal is really demanding. But that’s been part of it — why it’s been so cool to see him make that jump.”
UK fans are well aware of the transformation. As a freshman, Richards started every game, but his role diminished over time, scoring no more than two points in any of the Cats’ final nine games, playing more than nine minutes just once in that span.
The arrival of graduate transfer Reid Travis last season pushed Richards to a reserve role. His points, rebounds and playing time all decreased. He played a total of just five minutes over Kentucky’s final two games of the NCAA Tournament.
As a junior — and with Calipari lacking any alternatives at the “5” spot — he has been a revelation, arguably the Wildcats’ most important player, and a bona fide All-America candidate.
So, with Richards expected to head off to the pros this summer, how high can his NBA Draft stock go over the final few weeks of this college season?
Roadblocks for Richards
A couple of hurdles remain for Richards’ continued rise in the NBA prospect rankings.
First, according to Givony, he’ll likely need to show that he can be a dominant player against the type of opponents he’ll see in the NBA. And those opportunities might be hard to come by with just a few games left this season.
“I think the big thing is that his worst games this year have come against the best frontcourts that he’s played against,” Givony said. “Whether it’s Ohio State, Michigan State, Auburn. And there aren’t a lot of true big men in college basketball.”
Richards had a total of 16 points and 11 rebounds in those three games. The Ohio State loss (two points, no boards, and four fouls in 11 minutes) was especially dreadful. It’s worth nothing that his showing against Michigan State — a game that Kentucky won — came both on the first night of the season and with Richards coming off an injury.
Givony also noted that Richards dominated against Mississippi State’s Reggie Perry — the No. 57 player in ESPN’s mock draft — but qualified that by pointing out that Perry is a little smaller and likely more of a “4” at the NBA level.
“I do think, over the next four to six weeks, people are going to want to see him have that kind of production against similarly sized players,” Givony said. “If he gets another matchup with Kaleb Wesson or a Xavier Tillman or an Austin Wiley — showing that he can have that same kind of level of dominance against that type of guy, as well. Because that’s the size of guys that he’s going to match up with in the NBA.”
Wiley and Auburn are coming to Lexington this weekend. The SEC and NCAA tournaments could also yield further possibilities of frontcourt battles.
The second possible hindrance for Richards is two-fold: the NBA simply doesn’t value centers like it used to, and there are a lot of talented ones to choose from in this year’s draft, meaning competition for Richards on both levels.
“There just aren’t as many minutes to go around among all 30 teams. And there’s almost like there’s an unlimited supply of backup centers now,” Givony said. “You see someone like Clint Capela, who is probably one of the 15 best centers in the NBA, get traded for very little. … You see Andre Drummond just given away — like nobody wants him. And these are starters. So, these backups, they’re just being tossed around like nothing. You can sign them for the minimum (salary), or close to the minimum. So I think a lot of teams are looking at this and say, ‘Does it make sense for us to invest for a first-round pick in a guy who probably doesn’t project as a starting center? Maybe we just go sign someone for the minimum and that’s it. We use our first-round pick to get a guard or a wing.’ Those are much harder players to acquire.”
If a team does want a big man in this year’s draft, there will be plenty of options.
ESPN’s current mock draft features six players designated as centers or forward/centers — all much younger than Richards — in the first round: former Memphis freshman James Wiseman, Southern Cal’s Onyeka Okongwu, Memphis’ Precious Achiuwa, Washington’s Isaiah Stewart, Arizona’s Zeke Nnaji, and Duke’s Vernon Carey.
“And then you look at our second round, and you start to talk about some of the best bigs in college basketball: Jalen Smith and Daniel Oturu and Udoka Azubuike. So, where do all those guys go? I don’t know. It’s just a supply and demand issue more than anything.”
Richards in the first round?
All that said, there’s still room for Richards to make a first-round impression, especially if he performs well against similarly sized NBA prospects over the final few weeks of the season. Those aforementioned names ahead of him on ESPN’s draft board aren’t set in stone.
“This is a very flat draft,” Givony said. “I don’t think there’s a lot of agreement outside of the top 15 players or so. And even there not everybody’s on the same page. I do think that a lot of GMs are going to be turning their attention fully to the NBA Draft; now that the trade deadline is over, people really lock in on college basketball. And, so, I do think there’s a lot for him to gain over the last four to six weeks. And if Kentucky can go deep in the NCAA Tournament and he can have some dominant showings, I don’t think there is a ceiling on how high he can be drafted.”
Under normal circumstances, one major knock on Richards would be his age. NBA teams simply don’t typically draft players as old as Richards — again, he turns 23 in November — opting instead to go with the upside of much younger prospects.
For instance, the first eight players in ESPN’s current mock draft are still teenagers. Only one player in ESPN’s top 15 — Dayton superstar Obi Toppin — has reached his 20s. Youth remains the trend in the first round of the NBA Draft.
The circumstances surrounding Richards’ basketball journey so far are not normal, however. Givony said NBA teams will look at Richards’ advanced age, but they’ll also look at his rate of development and the path that he has taken to get to where he is now.
Born in Jamaica, the Wildcats’ big man didn’t really start playing basketball until he came to the United States as a teenager. He quickly emerged as a top high school prospect, a McDonald’s All-American, and — now — one of the best players in all of college basketball.
Perhaps, there’s more room to grow for a player who’s really just now finding himself.
“I think you have to look at his background and realize that he only started playing basketball when he was 14 years old. So, in basketball years, he’s young,” Givony said. “And I think people are going to want to look at the trajectory, too. Some guys, they’re the same player as a (college) senior as they were as a freshman, and that shows you that maybe they’ve peaked already, in terms of who they are. I think Nick still has room to improve. You look at the free-throw shooting, for example, that has gotten a lot better. You look at the all-around offensive package — he’s making mid-range jumpers now. That’s gotten better.
“So I do think we’re always going to look at a James Wiseman and say, ‘He’s just got unlimited room to improve.’ Which might not be fair. Maybe he is what he is, too. We’re not sure. He’s only played three (college) games. I think we kind of tend to sometimes give those guys the benefit of the doubt, which has led to a lot of mistakes over the years. I think age is something that people are going to look at, but I don’t think it’s the end-all for a guy like Nick.”
This story was originally published February 24, 2020 at 7:09 AM.
