Kentucky basketball mailbag: Will Immanuel Quickley return? What about EJ Montgomery?
Earlier this week, we asked for your questions regarding the future of the Kentucky basketball program following the abrupt end to the 2019-20 season. By the volume of responses, it’s clear that the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic has not done anything to affect your interest in the Wildcats.
There were so many good questions on UK’s stay-or-go decisions, the Cats’ recruiting outlook for 2020 and beyond, and several other topics that we’ll break up the responses in multiple posts over the next few days.
Part one will concentrate primarily on the current UK players and what they might be thinking about returning to Lexington for another season. Here we go …
Quickley and Montgomery
@StoogeI4KY on Twitter asked: What are the chances of Immanuel Quickley and EJ Montgomery returning?
This is clearly the hottest topic among UK basketball fans at the moment, as several of you asked some variation of this question.
The short answer: After some asking around, I’d expect at least one of those players to be back at UK next season.
The long answer …
I was told immediately after the NCAA Tournament was canceled that there was a legitimate chance that Quickley would return for a junior season, even after emerging as a star player this year and earning SEC player of the year honors.
That star turn coincided with movement on the NBA Draft boards. Earlier in the season, Quickley, who turns 21 years old in June, wasn’t even in the conversation for the 2020 draft. Now, he’s widely projected in the range of a second-round pick. John Calipari said on his final radio show of the season Monday night that Quickley has “gotta put his name in and thoroughly look at this, because he just had a wonderful year and deserves an opportunity if that’s out there for him. But we don’t know any of that. So I can’t tell you.”
There’s definitely uncertainty with the NBA draft calendar. There’s also uncertainty with Quickley’s fit at the next level. He turned into a Kentucky star by playing largely off the ball offensively, but — at 6-foot-3 and 188 pounds — his projected position in the NBA is point guard. ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony told the Herald-Leader recently that pro scouts would likely be more comfortable with Quickley if he can prove himself at that position before jumping to the league. Givony also pointed out Quickley’s relatively low two-point conversion rate as a sign that he needs to improve his ability to finish near the basket, something that will only get more difficult in the NBA.
If Quickley were to return, he’d definitely get opportunities to run the point. The only other player at the position projected to be on UK’s roster next season is Devin Askew, a talented prospect who doesn’t turn 18 years old until late July and could use someone like Quickley to help him along in the early going of his UK career.
Checking back in on Quickley’s status earlier this week, this was the word: “Quick is 50/50.”
Kentucky is expecting Montgomery to return for a junior season, though it’s no sure thing. He didn’t have the type of breakout sophomore campaign that some who covered his recruitment expected, but he certainly showed flashes of that potential, especially later in the season, when he seemed to be getting more comfortable on the court.
“You know, he was on a good path by the end of this year,” Calipari said Monday night. “He had a different look. He had a different approach. And some kids, it’s like — Willie Cauley-Stein came up to me after two years and said, ‘I am not mentally ready.’ And he wasn’t afraid to say it, and he comes back and ends up being the (sixth) pick of the draft.”
It’s important to keep in mind that there is virtually no NBA Draft buzz around Montgomery right now, and ESPN’s Givony and Adrian Wojnarowski reported Tuesday that college players might have to make their draft decisions with the reality that there could be no opportunities at all to audition for NBA teams this spring.
“NBA executives widely agree that the pre-draft process will be severely limited, if not lost altogether, as the prospect of having athletes or scouts board commercial flights in the near future for individual workouts, pro days or a league combine appears extremely unlikely,” the ESPN report said. “That will make it challenging to gather feedback and assess a player’s standing in the eyes of NBA teams.”
It’s difficult to impress a team in an individual workout if there are no individual workouts.
There’s been some talk that Montgomery might’ve seen the type of breakthrough junior season Nick Richards had — going from not on anyone’s draft radar to probable draft pick — and decide a third year in college might be best for him, too.
If Montgomery does return, he might be in an even better spot to make that jump. Think about this: Richards played just 12.1 minutes per game as a sophomore and saw his playing time decrease dramatically at the end of that campaign. Montgomery played 24.1 minutes per game as a sophomore and was seemingly only getting better and more comfortable as this past season wore on. He could be a major, major factor for the 2020-21 Wildcats and put himself on NBA Draft boards if that potential is realized.
Kentucky basketball transfers?
@dstamp44 on Twitter asked: Immanuel Quickley odds of staying? If yes, then odds of Johnny Juzang staying with the presence of three new perimeter guys plus IQ still on the roster?
The question of Quickley was answered previously: it’s a 50/50 scenario at this point.
If he does return to play alongside the aforementioned three new perimeter guys — Devin Askew, Brandon Boston and Terrence Clarke — where does that leave Juzang?
He could still be in a good spot for playing time, especially with a year of playing for John Calipari already under his belt.
You might have noticed that Calipari was continuously touting Juzang’s play throughout this past season, even though the California native averaged just 12.3 minutes per game and didn’t get much run in some of the Cats’ biggest matchups. Still, the UK coach often singled out rebounds and other hustle plays that Juzang made as turning points or major moments in specific games. (He hit some big shots, too). It’s clear Calipari wants Juzang back and sees great potential in his game.
Playing time on the perimeter will be an interesting dilemma for Calipari if Quickley and Juzang return to join a team with Askew — a talented point guard — and Boston and Clarke, who are both 6-foot-6ish shooting guards and the two highest-rated players in Kentucky’s No. 1-ranked class.
Calipari would surely often play three of those five players at the same time. And with the length and athleticism in that group, he could very well play four at a time — as long as some of them are actively rebounding — meaning he could have 120-plus minutes of playing time to spread among the five players.
There’d also be bigger wing players like Keion Brooks, Dontaie Allen and Cam’Ron Fletcher to consider — along with the frontcourt trio of (possibly) EJ Montgomery, Isaiah Jackson and Lance Ware — but this 2020-21 UK roster has the makings of a group built for small ball.
If Juzang can knock down shots — something he apparently excels at in practice and showed flashes of during the season — improve his defense, and play with energy, especially as a rebounder, there could be a prominent spot for him on next season’s team. He’d certainly get an opportunity to earn one.
And don’t forget: in his final game of this past season — that thrilling 71-70 win at Florida — Juzang played 33 minutes (second only to Tyrese Maxey) and delivered one of his best performances as a Wildcat. That’s a positive building block for a second run.
NCAA transfer rule
UK fan Scott asked this one via Twitter: With the possibility of transfer with immediate eligibility, how do you think this could negatively affect UK? Especially with Johnny Juzang and Keion Brooks, who both seemed to be unhappy with how their seasons played out, though both finished on an uptick. Also, I’d have concerns if EJ were given the chance for a fresh start that he might entertain that.
Scott’s asking about the NCAA’s proposed “free transfer” rule here, something that would give basketball players the ability to transfer to a new school and become immediately eligible without sitting out a season. (Athletes would be able to transfer without penalty only once, and they’d still have to hit certain academic benchmarks to gain immediate eligibility).
As with pretty much everything going on in the world right now, it’s unclear how the NCAA will proceed in approving this measure. Before the coronavirus pandemic effectively shut down sports, it was pretty clear that the proposal was on track to be approved this summer and go into effect immediately for next season. So, let’s assume that still happens …
Regarding the individual cases mentioned here — Brooks, Juzang and Montgomery — it’s probably unfair for me to speculate on those. None of those three players have said anything at all publicly that would indicate they’re thinking of leaving UK for another college, and none of them are in the transfer portal (which is already “exploding” — as Calipari put it this week — with more than 300 names as of Tuesday).
Montgomery, in particular, would definitely have a major role on next season’s Kentucky team.
Those close to the program pointed out in recent days that Brooks and Juzang were getting better toward the end of their freshman seasons and could also play major roles as UK sophomores. And here’s a personal observation from this past season: I often arrive at Rupp Arena for home games two hours before tip-off (occasionally even earlier than that). You know who was usually on the Rupp floor putting up shots at those times? Keion Brooks and Johnny Juzang. They were almost always the first two players on the court, and they were often the only two players on the court with that much time remaining until tip-off.
They’re both competitive players, and they both want to get better. Sure, there were rumblings throughout the season of people in some UK players’ camps who are unhappy with roles or playing time — and, in some cases, those complaints were made public on social media or elsewhere — but Brooks and Juzang always said the right things off the court. Transfers are always possible, but the way Brooks and Juzang finished out the season should be a positive sign for their futures at Kentucky.
That doesn’t mean that the “free transfer” rule itself won’t eventually bite the Wildcats.
Compared to other major programs, John Calipari has had a pretty good track record with avoiding transfers, but it’s still happened at a rate of almost one per season, and they’ve been a little more common in recent years.
Nearly all of Calipari’s recruits have been top 50 prospects coming out of college. Many have been in the top 25. Pretty much everyone who falls into that tier has been the star player on his teams growing up and expects that success to continue in college (even if they’re joining teams stacked with talent). Some of those players have struggled as freshmen. Some have been approached indirectly by other schools about transferring. In the past, the eligibility unknowns might have prevented some transfers from happening.
It stands to reason that if a struggling freshman knows he can go elsewhere and be eligible to play a guaranteed larger role immediately, he might take it. So, yes, it seems likely that the new transfer rule will probably have a negative effect on the Cats at some point, even if it doesn’t happen this offseason.
I still wouldn’t expect any kind of mass exodus from any Kentucky teams.
1) Calipari recruits the players he does — and they ultimately pick Kentucky — for a reason. That reason is often because they want to play against the best of the best everyday in practice to better prepare themselves for the next level, and they see UK as the place to do that.
2) The NCAA has seemingly grown more and more lax with its transfers anyway. “Hardship” waivers have become more common in recent years, and UK, specifically, has the reputation of helping their former players gain eligibility as quickly as possible with their new schools. Arizona’s program publicly thanked Kentucky for its assistance in getting Jemarl Baker eligible to play immediately this past season. Also this season, Quade Green was approved to play at Washington a semester earlier than the normal transfer rules would have allowed.
3) UK could, of course, also benefit from the “free transfer” rule by bringing in players from other programs. Calipari’s past stance on transfers in general would lead me to believe he wouldn’t immediately go this route to add to his own roster, but it’s possible. And it’s probable that, over time, as this becomes a more common and accepted process, Kentucky would look to such transfers in their own recruiting.
Farewell to Nick Richards?
Self-described “diehard Cats fan” Glynn Rodgers asked this one via email: Do you think we’ve seen the last of big Nick wearing the Wildcat uniform? If he’s virtually certain to turn professional, would it not make sense to go on and make it public?
“Big Nick” is obviously Nick Richards, who after two seasons of struggle became an SEC player of the year candidate and all-around fan favorite with his unlikely star turn this season.
Yes, I think we’ve seen the last of Richards in a UK jersey (unless he dons one as the “Y” during a timeout at a future game in Rupp Arena). Richards went from having a place on no one’s NBA Draft board to being a possible first-round pick — and, at least, you’d think, a second-round pick — in a matter of weeks with his stellar play this season. He turns 23 years old in November, and it would be a major surprise to see him back in Lexington for his senior year.
As for why he hasn’t just gone on and announced his departure, well, these are such strange times. The mood around UK’s program late last week was, understandably, pure shock. Coaches, players, everyone were left in a state of shock at how the season ended. Just like all of us, even those who agreed with the decision had a difficult time grasping the reality of no NCAA Tournament, and it’s safe to say that few players at UK or anywhere else were ready to make an immediate, concrete decision on their own futures.
That has to be doubly true with a player like Richards, who came to UK as a McDonald’s All-American with sky-high expectations. He told me a few months before he got to Lexington that his goal was to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft, and he saw that as something that could realistically happen. Instead, he lost playing time throughout his freshman season and played even less as a sophomore. He could have given up or checked out at any point in those two years. Instead, he just kept working.
Off the court, he went from a shy, gentle giant of a kid who often seemed uncomfortable talking to reporters to one of the team’s more genuine, insightful and interesting quotes.
Whenever the Calipari era ends at Kentucky, the emergence of Richards this season will surely go down as one of its greatest feel-good stories. It’s been clear for as long as he’s been here that he has always had the support of his coaches and teammates, who have repeatedly spoken — both on and off the record — about how hard he’s worked and how much he “deserved” to see that hard work pay off on the court. Even parents of other players have talked about him in that sense, genuinely hoping he’d turn the corner.
This year, he finally did it, and he surely was anticipating an NCAA Tournament run that could have added an exclamation point to his Kentucky career.
The many stay-or-go decisions of the recent past have taught us that it’s often difficult — in the best of situations — for players to turn the page on their UK careers and fully direct their attention to what comes after college. In Richards’ case, with no NCAA Tournament closure to his well-deserved season, that has to be even more true.
I’d expect an announcement sometime in the next few days or weeks that Richards is entering his name in the NBA Draft, and I don’t expect to see him play for Kentucky again. That seems inevitable. But given how much he’s grown as a player and a person over the past three years in Lexington, that inevitable decision likely won’t be an easy one to fully accept.
Note: That last question was from Glynn Rodgers, a Kentucky native and UK fan of more than 50 years who praised this Wildcats’ team for its “will to win and overcome adversity.” He added this at the end of his email: “Certainly, our attention is rightfully focused on getting through the coronavirus crisis, and basketball recruiting is way down the list of priorities. Thanks in advance for taking my questions, and I look forward to reading your responses should you choose to publish. Me and my family are living abroad in Spain, and the country is in quarantine, but my heart is still in the Bluegrass!”
It’s a good reminder that we should all be taking every precaution to keep each other safe during this difficult time. Be sure you’re keeping up on the latest news related to the coronavirus pandemic — Kentucky.com is, of course, a great place to do that for those of you living here in the commonwealth — and we’ll do our best to provide you with some interesting sports content to lighten things up along the way as we wait for the games to start back up again. We’ll answer more questions from Glynn and other UK fans over the next days. Thanks for reading.
