‘I’ve never, ever seen that.’ How UK improbably made the (virtual) Final Four.
With four minutes to play Sunday in its Elite Eight game against Marquette, Kentucky trailed 57-46. Then the Wildcats managed another one of the best rallies in school history mere weeks after erasing an 18-point second-half deficit at Florida to close the regular season.
Immanuel Quickley hit back-to-back three-pointers, Tyrese Maxey converted a wide-open layup off an EJ Montgomery assist and then came back down the floor for an off-balance trey from the top of the key to tie things up with 2:35 to play. That 11-0 spurt prompted a timeout by the Golden Eagles, out of which they made a bunny to re-take the lead. Ashton Hagans went 1-for-2 at the line after getting fouled before Nick Richards forced a steal on the other end.
A putback by Richards gave UK its first lead of the second half — 60-59 — before Marquette briefly reclaimed it. Another bucket by Richards with 1:20 left put the Wildcats in front for good; Hagans extended their advantage with a drive before Quickley and Richards combined to go 6-for-6 at the stripe over the final 17 seconds to finalize a 70-63 victory.
Quickley scored a team-high 22 points, Richards was named game MVP after a 17-point, seven-rebound performance and the Wildcats from their hotel room watched as No. 1-seed Dayton handled Penn State, 72-59, to complete a Final Four field consisting of them, the Flyers, No. 1 seed Baylor and No. 3 seed Seton Hall.
That’s how it all played out, anyway, in a video game simulation streamed live by Shane DiDonato, a Detroit-area native who — like thousands of people across the country — misses college basketball. So he did what any 23-year-old college student with newfound time on his hands would do: he’s broadcasting his own edition of March Madness from his living room.
“I was really bored and was like, ‘I think this would be awesome,’” DiDonato said in a phone interview with the Herald-Leader.
Simulations
Online simulations have become commonplace in the absence of an actual NCAA Tournament. Data-centric website Five Thirty Eight is simulating the tournament using dice rolls (Kentucky was a No. 2 seed in its bracket, foiled by Kansas in the Elite Eight). NCAA Game Simulator is a website that allows visitors to simulate basketball and football games; the bracket it’s using has UK as a No. 4 against North Texas, and winning 78.9 percent of those simulations.
DiDonato isn’t the only fan simulating the tournament via video game, but he might be the undisputed champ when it comes to attention to detail. He first selected a bracket, opting for the final one released by Joe Lunardi (it’s the same one used by Five Thirty Eight, so Kentucky is a 2-seed). He then spent three days fine-tuning rosters for all 64 teams in the first round — heights, weights, shooting percentages, etc. — and attempted to replicate appearances for about “95 percent” of players in his copy of “NCAA Basketball 10” for the Playstation 3, which came out on Nov. 18, 2009; to this day it is the most recent NCAA basketball game released.
“I tried to make it as realistic as possible but it’s kind of hard,” DiDonato said. “It’s a little outdated, but what’s cool about the 2010 game is it has a CBS broadcast. It’s kind of got that real feel to it.”
Recordings of Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery provide the commentary while DiDonato, who’d never streamed before, broadcasts the action through his cell phone camera using a mobile stand and the Twitch app. Because he was still learning how Twitch worked, DiDonato wasn’t able to save every broadcast — Kentucky’s first-round win over North Dakota State is no longer available, for example — but 52 of the 60 games played so far remain on DiDonato’s Twitch page. The tournament’s remaining games — those in the Final Four and the championship round — will be played on the same days they were scheduled to be played in real life: this coming Saturday and Monday.
The games to this point have been played using variable minutes for each half, depending on the round: 10-minute halves for the first and second rounds, 12 minutes for the Sweet 16 and 15 minutes for the Elite Eight. The last three games will be played using full 20-minute halves, DiDonato said.
Kentucky’s game against Marquette was accidentally played with 12-minute halves instead of 15, but it ended up being so entertaining that DiDonato felt like replaying it would be a shame.
“That Elite Eight game was the wildest one I’ve ever watched in a simulation,” DiDonato said. “I’ve never, ever seen that and I’ve played that game for 10-plus years. I was like, ‘What the hell?’”
Final Four
Before the Sweet 16 most of DiDonato’s broadcasts were getting about 5-10 views. They’ve jumped since he started sharing them to Reddit sub-reddits dedicated to each school’s fan base, which has elevated his average to about 40-50 views. Kentucky’s game against Iowa in the Sweet 16 was the most-watched game so far with 123 total views; its improbable comeback in the Elite Eight game is the second-most watched with 87 views.
“Kentucky by far has been the loudest one in the room,” said DiDonato, who said he’s a neutral college basketball fan but does own De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk jerseys because UK’s 2016-17 team was his favorite in the sport that season. He also likes John Calipari’s style of play.
The play of Maxey and Quickley has been the biggest difference-maker for Kentucky in its virtual run to the Final Four, he noted.
“They’re making their threes, which in that computer simulation is pretty important,” DiDonato said.
He’s excited for the Wildcats’ matchup against Dayton and star sophomore Obi Toppin, the highest-rated player in the tournament and whom DiDonato believed to be the best player in college basketball this season. They’ll tip off at about 8 p.m. Saturday on Twitch.
DiDonato and a group of about 15 friends have made small wagers among themselves on the digital games. People during the Twitch broadcasts have started making their own live lines, too. Some viewers filled out brackets.
Before Michigan put a stay-at-home order in place, DiDonato and some friends stayed up until about 4 a.m. drinking beers and watching the first- and second-round simulations, just like they would have done for the real games.
“It’d be a lot better if real sports were on, but this is pretty fun though,” DiDonato said. “We all love it.”
UPDATE: Kentucky advanced to the championship game after overcoming a 16-point deficit against Dayton to prevail, 101-92. It plays Baylor on Monday.
Other notes
▪ Iowa upset Duke, a No. 3 seed, in the round of 16 in DiDonato’s simulation. It wasn’t close, either; the Hawkeyes prevailed in a low-scoring affair, 46-31.
▪ Louisville, a No. 4 seed, led Baylor by five points with a little under four minutes to play but eventually lost to the Bears, who finished on a 17-8 run, in the Sweet 16.
▪ There have not been any buzzer-beaters, but No. 4 Oregon defeated No. 13 New Mexico State, 56-53, on a three-pointer with 1.6 seconds left to advance to the second round. The Ducks reached the Sweet 16, where they were upset by No. 9 Oklahoma.
▪ Kentucky has already won a virtual NCAA Tournament this week. A Twitter account, Virtual March Madness, hosted its championship game simulation Monday. Kentucky defeated Oregon, 101-96, in a battle of No. 4 seeds. (UK avenged its 2015 loss to Wisconsin in that tournament, too, defeating the No. 4-seeded Badgers in the Final Four). East Tennessee State, for whom former Henry Clay star Isaiah Tisdale plays, was a 12-seed that lost to Oregon in that Final Four simulation.
This story was originally published April 1, 2020 at 7:32 AM.
