Kentucky basketball mailbag: What’s the deal with the SEC and Olivier Sarr?
Earlier this week, we asked for your questions related to the upcoming Kentucky basketball season and the Wildcats’ ongoing recruiting efforts for the 2021 class and beyond.
Our first mailbag Wednesday focused on the UK recruiting questions. This batch will take a look at some topics related to the 2020-21 team and the season of uncertainty that’s now just a few weeks away.
Have you heard anything at all about when the SEC is going to rule on Olivier Sarr’s eligibility?
The league isn’t saying much about this, and multiple requests for comment and clarification about the specific rule keeping Sarr from getting his eligibility have gone unanswered, with a blanket “the SEC does not comment” on pending transfer decisions seemingly the only response we’re going to get for now.
Quick recap: the Herald-Leader confirmed a couple of weeks ago that the NCAA has granted Sarr a waiver to play immediately at UK after transferring from Wake Forest in the offseason. But, there’s an SEC-specific rule that prohibits non-graduate transfers from playing right away — no matter what the NCAA says — if they come into the league with fewer than two seasons of eligibility. So, Sarr remains in limbo. He can still practice with the team, but his playing status for this season is undetermined. He has said in the past he would explore professional options rather than sit out a season at UK.
The wording of the SEC rule is pretty airtight, and the league would have to bypass it altogether to allow Sarr to play this season.
So, UK remains in the dark and there’s no sign the league is close to making a ruling.
There could be some good news coming Sarr’s way, however.
The NCAA men’s basketball oversight committee met this week, and one topic of conversation was whether or not to recommend that athletes in winter sports get an additional season of eligibility — whether they play this year or not — due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Spring and fall athletes have already been extended that extra season, and it’s very possible that the same could be coming for winter athletes.
National college basketball analyst Jeff Goodman reported this week that the committee is “likely” to recommend to the Division I Council that those student-athletes playing winter sports should get an extra year of eligibility. If that’s the recommendation, it should pass, and the vote could happen as soon as next week.
What does any of that have to do with Sarr?
Well, if winter athletes are given an extra year of eligibility, that would mean Sarr would technically be starting his UK career with two seasons of remaining eligibility. If Sarr has two seasons of eligibility, UK would have an argument that the SEC’s transfer rule should not apply to him. And since the NCAA, we’ve confirmed, has already said he can play this season, there should logically be no additional roadblocks to keep Sarr off the court.
As of now, this seems to be UK’s best hope for a quick end to this saga.
If the winter athlete provision doesn’t get approved — or the SEC says such a provision wouldn’t apply to Sarr retroactively, since he enrolled at UK before it was approved — then this thing could drag on.
What do you think the starting lineups will be, both with and without Olivier Sarr? Also, what do you think the bench will look like? Who is also most likely to stay this year? I know there are always surprises (Tyler Herro, for example).
A three-and-a-half-part question:
Starting lineup with Sarr: The one that seems to make the most sense is Devin Askew, Brandon Boston Jr., Terrence Clarke, Keion Brooks and Sarr. Askew is the purest point guard on the team. You have to have Boston and Clarke — two possible lottery picks — out there. And Brooks is a versatile forward and the only scholarship Wildcat with any experience playing for Calipari. If Sarr is eligible, Sarr will start.
Starting lineup without Sarr: Think you still start Askew, Boston and Clarke — a dynamic and versatile backcourt with plenty of great scoring and passing ability, defensive upside, and a very unselfish player at the point. No Sarr would make Brooks’ experience even more valuable. The Cats will be in a bind at the “5” spot if Sarr isn’t eligible. I think Isaiah Jackson and Lance Ware will both turn into really good college players, but asking either to be a starting “5” at Kentucky as a freshman is tough. Both fit more into the “4” role, and both will benefit greatly if they don’t have the oversized expectations that would come if Sarr can’t play.
Most would pencil in Jackson at the “5” in this scenario. He’s a super-athletic, 6-foot-10 forward who excels at blocking shots and should be a good rebounder. He’s also listed at 205 pounds, however. Perhaps Ware, a strong, athletic forward who stands 6-9 and is listed at 223 pounds, will get a chance instead? He, too, is a solid rim-protector and rebounder and brings the reputation of a player who sacrifices individual stats for the betterment of the team. He’ll also offer more bulk, and, possibly, more offensive production at the start.
No matter who starts in Sarr’s place, both of these freshmen will be leaned upon heavily if the Wildcats’ 7-foot, 243-pound senior center doesn’t get his eligibility.
The bench: Assuming Sarr plays, Jackson and Ware will still get plenty of opportunities in the paint. The Cats didn’t bring in graduate transfer Davion Mintz to ride the pine, and his experience and ability to defend the perimeter should lead to considerable minutes. That leaves 6-6 wings Dontaie Allen and Cam’Ron Fletcher, and both have a path to playing time this season. If Allen is healthy, he could be a potent scorer off the bench. He can shoot. He can get to the basket. He’s a smart offensive player, and if he rebounds his position and plays good enough defense, he should be out there. Fletcher has a ton of upside, but any major court time this season will probably depend on his ability to defend, rebound and use his ample athleticism to play a gritty style of ball (that John Calipari loves). Those areas often make for a tough transition from high school to college, but Fletcher has the physical tools to make an impact.
Most likely to return: Sarr will be gone. Boston and Clarke will almost certainly be gone. Brooks could play himself into the NBA Draft (and it’s just incredibly rare for any out-of-state scholarship player to stay at UK beyond two seasons). Askew and Jackson would probably fit best into the “surprise departure” category. There will likely be NBA buzz at various points for both players. I’d lean toward Askew returning, though. Transfers have become common in recent seasons, but those are tough to predict at this stage. I think Allen, Fletcher and Ware will all be back in college next season. And don’t forget uber-athletic forward Jacob Toppin, who gets to practice with the Cats this season and will have three years of eligibility starting in 2021. (UK revealed this week that the program has sent in a transfer waiver request for Toppin to play right away this season, but there’s been no word on the result of that case).
How good will Devin Askew, Davion Mintz, and maybe Terrence Clarke need to be at the “1” for UK to win the championship?
In short, very good.
Point guards are crucial come NCAA Tournament time, and we’ve seen how much that position means to John Calipari’s teams. This squad won’t have a dynamic playmaker like John Wall or Brandon Knight or De’Aaron Fox running the show, and I don’t think the roster is constructed in a way for Askew to have a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-like breakout this season. That doesn’t mean he won’t be good. Very good, even.
Askew’s best traits — outside shooting, passing, his size, and, most of all, his unselfishness — seem to be a perfect fit for the players he’ll be sharing the court with. He wants to be the guy to run the team, and he knows that starts with getting others in the right positions and getting them the ball. He can shoot and score — and that’ll come in handy — but he’ll sacrifice personal offense for team wins. And, even as the youngest player on this team, he won’t be afraid to speak up in huddles, tell others what to do, and be a leader on the court. Whether or not he’s a one-and-done draft pick or future NBA star, Askew seems to be uniquely built to run this team right off the bat.
And Mintz is exactly what this young team needs. He’s not on any preseason NBA Draft boards, but — with possibly three freshmen in the starting backcourt — he’s a versatile guard who can play on or off the ball and provide a veteran’s touch on both ends of the floor. UK coaches have likened his potential impact to this team to the effect Nate Sestina and Reid Travis had in previous seasons, speaking more of the experienced leadership and accountability they brought to the program. It’ll be beneficial for the coaching staff to have a guy like Mintz around these young players. And he’s already proved himself at Creighton, playing in a league with a high quality of basketball.
Clarke and Boston will also see opportunities to create from the perimeter. Both are known for their scoring abilities but are also gifted passers, and whatever combination of these four guards is out there should be a fun watch this season.
The players who will be running the point have the tools to lead this team to the national title. Keep in mind that UK’s only title team under Calipari had Marquis Teague at the position and shooting guard Doron Lamb the closest thing to a backup. Teague wasn’t as lauded as Wall, Knight, Fox and others, but he was a solid — underappreciated, I’d say — freshman point guard who grew as the season progressed and learned how to play off an incredibly talented roster of teammates.
There will be growing pains this season, too, but expecting the same progression of Askew and this playmaking bunch isn’t asking too much.
Does the NCAA still plan to format the tournament in the same way or will there be fewer sites and more bubbles?
The NCAA and the conferences within college basketball are serious about this “bubble” — if you want to call it that — approach to the 2020-21 season. Planning for how to play both non-conference and conference games in a safe manner has been going on for months. There’s been talk of bubble or pod-like spurts within the season where several teams meet up in one location and play a round-robin format of sorts, getting in a few games over a period of time with limited travel. Such arrangements are already progressing for the non-conference season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some form of it in league play.
As far as the format for the NCAA Tournament goes …
1.) The NCAA is going to do whatever it takes to make this tournament happen. The 2020 tournament was canceled, and those who run college athletics don’t want to see that happen for a second year in a row. It would be a major blow to the NCAA and its member schools, and they’re full-steam ahead on making it work.
.) To make it work, I just don’t see any way that the normal format can stay the same. You’re talking about sending 64 teams from all around the country (with dozens of individuals connected to each program) to eight different locations all around the country, then sending 16 of those teams to four additional locations, then sending the final four teams to Indianapolis. (And that’s not even counting the “play-in” games). Unless there are some major advancements to how we’re dealing with COVID-19 between now and March, that just seems unlikely. All it would take is an outbreak within one or two teams to jumble up the bracket for everybody.
The NCAA has recently said that’s still the plan, but they also have plenty of time to monitor the situation. There’s no need to publicly back off that plan yet. They have venues ready to go for March. They have several months to make a decision on how to proceed with the tournament. And how travel goes during the regular season will obviously factor into that. The college basketball decision-makers have been working on plans and contingencies since the spring, and they’ll continue to game-plan it in the coming months. And I think they’ll find a way for the NCAA Tournament to be played in 2021.
But will that tournament look exactly the way it was planned? With 68 teams and games at all 14 previously scheduled sites? At this point, I wouldn’t bet on it.
This story was originally published October 8, 2020 at 7:34 AM.
