How will college basketball’s COVID-limited crowds affect what we see on the court?
John Calipari has been known to suggest the NCAA and/or referees and/or the Southeastern Conference (insistence on staging a postseason tournament) and/or the media seek to thwart him and/or Kentucky. Now he faces an undeniably real adversary: Mother Nature.
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, Kentucky capped home attendance at 15 percent of Rupp Arena’s capacity in the 2020-21 season. Calipari fretted aloud about a diminished home-court advantage.
“(Visiting teams that) come in this building are always playing in front of 20-some thousand,” the UK coach said of Rupp Arena this week. “Big advantage for us. Our fans and our fan base and that building play a big part in our success.
“I don’t know what our record is during our 11 years here . . .”
Going into Wednesday night’s season-opening game against Morehead State, Kentucky had a home record of 183-11 in Calipari’s time as coach. That’s a winning percentage of .943. Coincidentally or not, Kentucky has finished first (28 times) or second (15 times) nationally in average home attendance every season since Rupp Arena opened in the 1976-77 season.
At 15 percent of capacity, about 3,000 fans could attend a UK home game this season. Using figures from last season for perspective, that would be on par with such programs as Vermont (3,031), Wyoming (3,164) and the school Calipari first attended as a player, UNC Wilmington (3,135).
Given limits on attendance and UK fans’ unbounded enthusiasm, Calipari concluded, “It’s going to hurt us more than anybody else.”
In terms of big home crowds aiding Kentucky, Calipari has an ally in former Georgia coach Mark Fox.
When asked if fans could impact player performance, Fox responded with his own question.
“Let me ask you: we had a couple games in Rupp Arena that came down to the last possession or the last 30 seconds,” said Fox, now coaching at California. “Do you think those 24,000 people made a difference in those games?”
Yes, he was told.
“Me, too,” Fox said.
That’s not to say that a drastic reduction of fans — or even no fans — will damage the quality of play.
Ole Miss Coach Kermit Davis, who has contracted the coronavirus, recalled his team playing Texas in a closed scrimmage before last season.
“Nobody there,” he said. “And it was like our guys were playing for a championship. They went at each other. I just think those competitive juices come out.”
Similarly, Michigan State Coach Tom Izzo spoke of quality play when his Spartans played Gonzaga in closed scrimmages the previous two years.
“Neutral sites, nobody there,” he said. “I’ll tell you what: Once the ball was tossed, it’s basketball.”
ESPN analyst Jay Bilas used an example from Kentucky’s recent past to make the same point. He recalled Kentucky’s trip to the Bahamas in August 2014. He worked the telecasts of the six exhibition games. The site was a high school-like gym in Nassau. There were, maybe, a few hundred UK fans at the games, and almost literally no fans for the opponents.
“They did fine,” Bilas said of the Wildcats winning five of the six games. “So, I’m not concerned about (a steep decline in attendance). That’s sort of the way it is. And everybody’s in the same boat. If you go on the road, you’re not facing a hostile crowd. If you play at home, you don’t have a friendly crowd. So, it’s really all even. It is (like) bring your own energy.”
The NBA example
Still, attendance — or lack thereof — is an issue.
Alabama Coach Nate Oats said he had spoken to his players about the different game atmospheres this coming season. He acknowledged that the crowd can affect player performance.
“Some players kind of get amped up when the crowd gets behind them when they hit a big shot,” Oats said.
The Alabama coach said he told his players to play for the “right reasons,” which he defined as to compete.
“It shouldn’t matter how many people are in the stands,” he said. “Now, whether that remains to be seen or not, I don’t know. But the kids have to realize if you’re playing to be a pro, NBA scouts are watching the games. They don’t care how many people are in the stands. Whether it’s zero or 23,000, you should be playing as hard as you can play.”
The NBA “bubble” in Orlando provided solace for those hoping the dramatically reduced number of fans at games will not harm the quality of play.
“I would have concern if I hadn’t seen the NBA,” said Richmond Coach Chris Mooney, whose team plays Kentucky on Sunday. “I thought (the NBA players’) level of enthusiasm (and) celebrating . . . was really evident playing in front of no fans.
“So, yes, I feel it’ll certainly be far different. But I do think the enthusiasm and passion is still going to be felt in games by players. So I don’t think it’ll be quite as big a deal.”
Izzo got the same message, if not more so, watching the NBA games. He seemed to suggest no fans might have enhanced the quality of play.
“(The NBA players) play harder because there’s less distractions,” he said.
Loss of electricity
During the preseason, UK players downplayed how fans can impact games. Freshman Terrence Clarke said that fan cheering or booing had “never really been my thing.”
Added Dontaie Allen: “I think if you ask any player, we’d obviously prefer fans.”
Allen likened the new atmosphere to going to a park or the YMCA to play basketball. “At the end of the day, we’re playing the game that we love.”
Arkansas Coach Eric Musselman expects a noticeable decrease in electricity in game atmospheres.
“Right now, we know for a fact we’re not playing this year in front of an atmosphere like we had when Kentucky came here last year,” he said. “So you have to generate your own interest, your own enthusiasm, your own energy on a nightly basis.”
Musselman has coached in the G League and other settings where fan attendance was minimal. So he has an informed opinion about the impact a lack of fans can have on player performance.
“It has no effect on true competitors,” he said. “If you really love to compete, I don’t think it really matters.”
Still, on Tuesday, Calipari tweeted a call for a pseudo big crowd. He asked Kentucky fans to continue buying cutouts that will be placed in Rupp Arena seats. When they practiced Tuesday, the UK players saw cutouts already purchased and in place.
“Why don’t we really go crazy and sell out the building with cutouts?!” the UK coach tweeted.
The cutouts cost $50 and can hold a picture of a fan or pet. To order, go to ukathletics.com/fancutouts.
To give fans an incentive, Calipari tweeted, “Whatever is raised from these, Ellen and I will match it!”
Earlier this week Morehead State Coach Preston Spradlin was thinking about real fans in the seats for the Bluegrass Showcase, which at the time included Detroit Mercy. Morehead State was to play Richmond in the game following Kentucky-Detroit Mercy in Friday’s doubleheader. He appealed for support from Kentucky fans, even if in much smaller numbers.
“If we can get all those Kentucky fans to stick around and be Morehead State fans . . . ,” he said. “They’ve not seen a game for so long. Why wouldn’t they stay?”
