Bracketologist’s ranking of Kentucky ‘a dubious distinction,’ but there’s still hope
Even with a 1-5 record, Kentucky gets mentioned on ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s current forecast for the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
“At this very moment, I have them 81st,” Lunardi said Wednesday. That’s 13 spots away from the last bid in the 68-team field.
Lunardi playfully spun 81st as a positive.
“That’s probably the best standing for a 1-5 team in the history of bracketology,” he said before adding, “a dubious distinction, to be sure.”
When the coronavirus began enveloping life this past summer, Lunardi wrote that teams with losing records could receive a 2021 NCAA Tournament bid. In part, that’s because the pandemic eliminated many of what he called “cupcake” opponents that top-level programs use to produce shiny win-loss records.
UK takes its avert-your-eyes record into Saturday’s game at Louisville, then begins Southeastern Conference play.
“I think if they have a winning record in the SEC, they’re going to make the tournament,” he said. That’s because the remaining schedule is almost exclusively Quad 1 or Quad 2 games that are most impactful on a team’s resume.
This led Lunardi to suggest that the low and high tides in Kentucky’s regular-season record are 6-20 or 18-8.
“If you were betting the mortgage payment, and you have to bet on one of these extremes, which extreme would be it?” Lunardi asked.
The ESPN bracketologist saw 18-8 more likely.
“If they’re anything close to that, let’s say 16-10 with like a 12-6 SEC record (or) if they’re 10-8 or 11-7 in the league, I can’t imagine they won’t have the wins they need to get in even if they are under .500 overall.”
The reasons for Kentucky’s struggles are well-documented. Or as ESPN analyst Dick Vitale put it, “You don’t have to be a genius or go to Harvard to figure it out.”
Turnovers and poor three-point shooting have handicapped the Cats. Going into Wednesday’s play, only seven of 328 Division I teams averaged fewer three-point baskets than UK’s 4.2 and only eight had shot a lower percentage (24.3 percent).
Kentucky ranked No. 299 in turnover margin (minus 4.3) and 302nd in assist-to-turnover ratio.
“That’s a formula for failure,” Vitale said.
SEC Network analyst Jimmy Dykes said that the freshman class did not include a transcendent player like Anthony Davis or John Wall. He named five freshmen on league teams off to better starts than any first-year Kentucky player: Moses Moody (Arkansas), Justin Powell (Auburn), Cameron Thomas (LSU), Keon Johnson (Tennessee) and Jaden Springer (Tennessee).
Doug Barnes, a former UK assistant coach and later radio network analyst, said such a start to a season should be expected on occasion from a program reliant on freshmen. That’s especially true when a pandemic removes confidence-building exhibitions and so-called “cupcake” early-season opponents from the calendar.
This anything-but-great conjunction “kind of magnified issues you have bringing in a whole new team,” Barnes said.
Vitale saw Olivier Sarr as a key to a Kentucky turnaround. The ESPN analyst was among the many who saw the senior transfer from Wake Forest as an ideal complement to this freshman-dependent UK team.
“I figured the (completed) puzzle was there for greatness,” Vitale said. “They’re going to win their share of games. Top to bottom, there are potential wins this year in the SEC.
“I think the big thing is they’ve got to get Sarr to be a major factor.”
Lunardi suggested that winning the remaining home games will be key because the 1-5 start means Kentucky cannot afford too many more holes in its postseason resume.
“I’m betting on a losing overall record and an at-large bid,” the ESPN bracketologist said before adding, “and me screaming about how terrible that is.”
Game postponed
Kentucky’s scheduled home opener on the SEC schedule has been postponed. UK was to play South Carolina next Tuesday.
The game was postponed because of a positive COVID-19 test, contact tracing and subsequent quarantining of individuals within the South Carolina program, the league said.
Earlier this year, South Carolina Coach Frank Martin contracted the coronavirus.
The SEC has set aside March 5-7 for makeup games in the league schedule.
Earlier this season, UK’s game against Detroit Mercy was postponed because of COVID.
Ticket holders will receive communication via email if any more schedule changes are made, UK said.
Next game
Kentucky at Louisville
When: 1 p.m. Saturday
Where: KFC Yum Center in Louisville
TV: ESPN
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Records: Kentucky 1-5, Louisville 4-1
Series: Kentucky leads 37-16.
Last meeting: Kentucky won 78-70 on Dec. 28, 2019, in Lexington.
