Kentucky basketball mailbag: A ‘package deal’ in the NCAA transfer portal?
With the offseason in full swing and Kentucky basketball looking to move on from a strange 9-16 campaign, we asked for your questions related to the UK program, the Wildcats’ recruiting efforts, and anything else about the future of John Calipari’s team.
There were plenty of good ones to sort through, and this is the first installment of mailbag answers, concentrating on Kentucky’s focus on the NCAA transfer portal and possible player additions from that pool. (The mailbag call went out before Davidson star Kellan Grady committed to UK on Monday, and that will be a major addition for next season’s team).
There will be more mailbag features on Kentucky basketball later this week.
Are the North Carolina big (Walker Kessler) and the Auburn player (Justin Powell) a package deal? What’s their status?
I actually asked around about this very topic late last week. The short answer from the feedback that followed is that, no, Kessler and Powell probably won’t be a “package deal.”
The two members of the 2020 recruiting class are former AAU teammates with the Atlanta Celtics and remain good friends. There has been talk behind the scenes in recruiting circles that Kessler and Powell could be looking to end up at the same school, and it sounds like the players and their families still keep up with each other. I’m guessing that — being two friends in a similar situation — they’ll compare notes and experiences as they sort through this transfer process, but it seemed relatively clear that they will ultimately be making independent decisions when it comes to their next schools.
Like nearly all “package deal” talk in recruiting circles, this sounds like one of those instances where the two players would like to play with each other but will end up making their own choices. If they end up at the same school, great. If not, that’s OK, too.
As far updates on each player’s status, it’s probably good news for Kentucky if Kessler and Powell are not a package deal, because the buzz in basketball circles has been that UK is a long shot, at best, to land Kessler, a 7-foot-1 center who apparently would like a chance to show off more of his away-from-the-basket skills at his next stop.
Kessler was the No. 22 recruit in the 2020 class and was seen as a highly skilled prospect for his size coming out of high school. He showed flashes of that brilliance at UNC this past season, but his playing time was limited and he often got pushed into more of a traditional big role. Gonzaga has had success with similar players, and that team is being mentioned quite a bit as a potential favorite. Michigan and Auburn are also coming up in discussions. It’s just sounding like UK might be on the outside looking in with him.
After checking in on Powell recently, it seems like he’s in no great hurry to make a final decision on his transfer until he gets a good sense for the backcourt situation at some of the top schools on his list. While Powell — a 6-6 guard — did play the lead guard position at Auburn this past season, he projects as more of an off-the-ball player who could take over some point duties when needed moving forward. He’s going to go somewhere that will allow him to play major minutes next season. That should be just about anywhere in the country, but — since Powell holds all the cards at the moment — there’s really no need for him to make a decision until he’s 100 percent sure about the situation he’s stepping into.
Kentucky is still in the mix with him, though the feedback I received earlier this week made it sound like UK is a much less likely landing spot than it seemed a week or two ago. It wouldn’t be surprising if we see him whittle his extensive list of college options down to a few before announcing a final decision.
If Davion Mintz and Keion Brooks were to come back that’s already 10 roster spots filled. Who does Cal prioritize for those final couple of spots?
To recap, the return of Brooks and Mintz — if that actually happens — would place those two with expected returnees Dontaie Allen, Devin Askew, Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware, in addition to incoming recruits Daimion Collins, Nolan Hickman and Bryce Hopkins plus midseason transfer Oscar Tshiebwe. And then there’s Davidson star Kellan Grady, who announced Monday that he would be joining the Cats next season. (This question was asked before Grady committed).
That would give Kentucky a total of 11 scholarship players, leaving Calipari with just two additional scholarships (though he rarely uses all 13).
If Brooks and Mintz return — and that might be a big if — I’m not sure Calipari adds anyone else to that group.
As it stands, UK’s frontcourt should consist of Tshiebwe and Collins — two McDonald’s All-Americans, with Collins viewed as a possible lottery pick — along with Ware, Toppin and Hopkins (a long, tough 6-7 forward who can play in the paint or on the perimeter). That seems like a pretty loaded group, and it gets only better if the versatile Brooks is back.
If a frontcourt talent the caliber of Walker Kessler is out there and interested, the Cats would surely entertain adding another big, but — short of that — this group seems pretty set.
That would leave the perimeter as Grady, Hickman, Askew and Allen, plus Mintz if he returns.
If Mintz is back, that might be enough, especially with guys like Brooks, Hopkins and Toppin capable of stepping out and playing the “3” spot
Now, if a point guard that looks to be the right fit for Calipari, Kentucky and this particular group comes along, they’d pounce on that. But I don’t think adding another point guard is necessarily a sure thing.
It was interesting that UK basically passed on making a serious run at Creighton decommitment TyTy Washington, a talented point guard who could end up in five-star range after the 2021 rankings are finalized later this spring. The reason: they really like what they have coming in with Hickman, and they still have high hopes for Askew, who was young for his class and — in an optimal situation — would’ve been playing backup point guard minutes this past season. Throw in Mintz, who had 46 points, 23 assists and just three turnovers over UK’s last three games, and you have a group that should be able to take care of 40 minutes at the point.
What if Mintz does move on from Kentucky? It’s a scenario that could very well happen.
Then it gets interesting, and it seems more likely than not that Kentucky would look for another guard, preferably one who could play some minutes at the point.
If this happens, one player to keep an eye on will be Minnesota transfer Marcus Carr, an elite point guard who averaged 19.4 points and 4.9 assists per game for the Golden Gophers this past season.
Carr — a 6-2 playmaker from Toronto with three seasons of experience starting at the highest level — was ranked by 247Sports analyst Eric Bossi as the No. 2 overall player (and top point guard) in the NCAA transfer portal last week. Carr is also planning to go through the NBA Draft evaluation process, and it doesn’t sound like he will be making any decision on a specific college until he first decides whether or not to stay in the draft. That would give Kentucky more time to see what Mintz does before figuring out whether or not they need to add another guard. And it sounds like UK would have a pretty good chance if Carr does indeed return to college.
(ESPN currently ranks Carr as the No. 89 overall prospect in the 60-player NBA Draft).
Other than that, former Texas signee Tamar Bates, a 6-4 shooting guard who UK’s Jai Lucas recruited, has asked for his release for the Longhorns and Kentucky has already inquired. Syracuse freshman forward-turned-point guard Kadary Richmond is entering the transfer portal and wants to hear from UK. Justin Powell is still available.
It’s also worth noting that other talented guards are expected to hit the transfer portal in the coming days and weeks, though UK got out ahead of things with the early addition of Grady, the No. 3 overall transfer on the 247Sports list and a proven perimeter scorer at the college level.
How many transfers do you see UK picking up and at what positions?
The “position” part of this one was basically answered in the previous question. Look for Kentucky to target one more impact guard for next season, especially if Davion Mintz leaves.
How many total transfers will the Cats bring in? That likely depends on what Keion Brooks and Mintz ultimately decide. Any UK fan hoping/expecting both of those players to return for next season is likely setting themselves up for disappointment. Both have been quiet on the stay-or-go issue so far, and there have been plenty of rumblings out there that one or both could be gone this offseason. They’re both still looking at all of their options, and — until there’s official word from UK or a clear sense of direction from the players themselves — it’s best not to assume what they will do.
If both return, Kentucky could very well stand pat with a roster of 11 scholarship players, now that Kellan Grady has come aboard for next season. If Mintz leaves, look for the Cats to add another guard. If Brooks leaves, the Kentucky frontcourt would still have plenty of depth, talent and upside. In that situation, UK could afford to be particularly choosy with any other additions, and the Cats wouldn’t have to add any other frontcourt players if the right fit wasn’t there.
If both Brooks and Mintz aren’t back next season, that would leave the Wildcats with just nine scholarship players. Calipari likely isn’t going to get to 13 in any scenario, but he’s said in the recent past that he doesn’t want to be in a position where he’s so short on players that he can’t have competitive five-on-five practices. Even with capable walk-ons, a roster with just nine or 10 scholarship players would leave Kentucky in a tough spot for scrimmages during times of inevitable injury and illness.
The departure of both Brooks and Mintz would look like this for Kentucky: a backcourt consisting of Hickman and Askew at the point with Grady and Allen at the “2,” and a frontcourt with Hopkins as a bigger wing capable of defending bigs, along with Toppin, Ware, Collins and Tshiebwe.
That’s a lot of talent and upside, but not enough bodies.
So, if Brooks and Mintz both decide to leave, it seems more likely than not that UK would be looking to add at least two additional players this offseason, with a particular focus on the backcourt. I wouldn’t expect Calipari to go into next season with fewer than 11 scholarship guys.
