New college basketball rankings are out. Kentucky is moving toward a No. 1 seed.
The victories continue to stack up on the basketball court, and Kentucky’s status keeps on rising in the national conversation. A No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament could be around the corner.
The Wildcats stayed put at No. 5 in the Associated Press college basketball rankings Monday afternoon following a clear victory at Alabama on Saturday and a win over Vanderbilt earlier in the week. The Cats passed UCLA, which lost two games last week, but they were passed by Arizona, which moved from No. 7 to No. 4 after beating UCLA and Southern Cal to improve to 19-2 on the season. (And Zona defeated Arizona State on Monday night to move to 20-2).
Still, Kentucky’s national profile is very much on the rise.
The only other teams ranked ahead of UK are Auburn at No. 1, Gonzaga at No. 2, and Purdue at No. 3, and the Cats are now firmly entrenched in the national conversation for one of the four No. 1 seeds for the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Those NCAA Tournament projections haven’t quite caught up to UK’s recent play yet, but the computer models and other human rankings are liking the Wildcats an awful lot.
ESPN updated its power rankings Monday morning. The Wildcats are No. 3 on that list — behind only Auburn and Gonzaga — and ESPN’s Jeff Borzello included in the update that “Kentucky is perhaps playing the best basketball of anyone.”
CBS Sports’ Gary Parrish also had UK at No. 3 in his Monday morning update, while national college basketball analyst Jeff Goodman put the Cats at No. 4 after the weekend.
The computers also like Kentucky, with KenPom placing the Wildcats at No. 2 — behind only Gonzaga — while UK is No. 4 in the NET rankings, the relatively new model introduced by the NCAA as a helping tool in the NCAA Tournament selection process.
While Kentucky is clearly establishing itself as a top-four team in the country — and, by extension, a legitimate No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament — the actual NCAA selection process is a little trickier. The human rankings mean nothing there, and even the computer models lack significant punch in the bracketing process, which involves a number of measurables that are weighted to varying degrees.
As a result, Kentucky is not yet on the No. 1 seed line in most “bracketology” predictions. But the Cats are getting close.
Kentucky and bracketology
Heading into what was supposed to be the 2020 NCAA Tournament — the one ultimately canceled due to COVID-19 — the top-ranked bracketologist in the country, according to the BracketMatrix.com website, was Dave Ommen of the Bracketville blog.
Ommen was one of the first bracketologists to update his 2022 board Monday morning to reflect the weekend’s results, and he had Kentucky as the No. 6 overall team on his seed list, meaning the Cats would be the second-best No. 2 seed in the tournament.
Auburn and Gonzaga are 1-2 in the Bracketville rankings, and those two teams — barring the unforeseen over the next few weeks — are viewed as near-locks for No. 1 seeds.
Next on Ommen’s seed list were Kansas, Purdue and Duke.
The Jayhawks’ placement at No. 3 might be a head-scratcher to Kentucky fans, who just nine days ago watched their Wildcats dismantle KU at Allen Fieldhouse, arguably as impressive a victory as there has been in college basketball all season.
Kansas’ tournament resume is stout, however. The Jayhawks came into the week leading the nation with eight Quad 1 victories and an 8-2 overall record in such games, which are deemed to be the toughest to win under the NCAA’s current formula. (Kentucky is 5-4 in Quad 1 games). Kansas also came into the week 5-1 in road games and 3-1 in neutral-site games, marks likely to impress the selection committee. (UK is 4-3 on the road and 1-1 on neutral ground so far).
The Jayhawks lost at No. 20 Texas on Monday night, however, and that defeat — along with the daily fluctuation of the NET rankings — dropped Kansas to 5-2 in road games and 7-3 in Quad 1 games.
Purdue is 6-2 in Quad 1 games, 4-2 on the road, and 4-0 at neutral sites. Duke, which defeated Kentucky in the season opener, is 5-1 in Quad 1 games, 4-2 on the road, and 2-0 in neutral games.
he Blue Devils lost at home to Virginia later Monday night, a defeat that will count as a Quad 3 loss for a Duke team that has no more Quad 1 games remaining. That result will surely further help UK’s chances of earning a No. 1 seed.
Ommen pointed out in his Monday update that Kentucky’s schedule is favorable for a lengthy run, and the Wildcats are certainly trending toward a spot on the No. 1 seed line if they keep winning.
The bracketologist also noted that Kansas and Purdue have some especially tough matchups ahead of them — opportunities for higher-end victories but also games that are more likely to end in defeats.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology board Tuesday morning, giving Auburn, Gonzaga, Arizona and Purdue the No. 1 seeds, while Kentucky, Baylor, Duke and Kansas grabbed the No. 2 seeds.
CBS Sports analyst Jerry Palm moved Kentucky from a No. 3 seed to a No. 2 seed in his updated projections Monday afternoon. Auburn, Gonzaga, Kansas and Arizona are his No. 1 seeds.
USA Today also updated its tournament board Monday morning, placing Kentucky as a No. 2 seed, with Auburn, Gonzaga, Kansas and Purdue as the four No. 1s.
Selection Sunday is set for March 13, and the NCAA selection committee will offer fans a sneak-peek update at the bracket in a couple of weeks. The NCAA confirmed to the Herald-Leader on Monday that the annual bracket reveal television show will air on CBS at 12:30 p.m. on Feb. 19, just ahead of the Kentucky-Alabama game.
That show will reveal the nation’s top 16 teams, according to the actual tournament selection committee, and it’s a good snapshot of where each top contender stands in the eyes of the committee to that point in the season.
Kentucky has three games before those rankings will be revealed: at South Carolina on Tuesday night, at home against Florida on Saturday, and at Tennessee on Feb. 15.
This story was originally published February 7, 2022 at 12:08 PM.
