What to expect from Kentucky basketball this season? Ten big questions for these Cats.
The college basketball season starts Monday night, and Kentucky will begin this 2022-23 campaign ranked as the No. 4 team in the country.
Yet, what looked a few weeks ago like one of John Calipari’s most formidable teams in years — a squad marked by roster continuity and led by the reigning national player of the year — is now a group that will enter the season as the subject of much uncertainty.
The pep in Calipari’s step has been replaced by words of caution. He said last week that the first couple of months of the season could be “a little shaky,” though with Michigan State and Gonzaga among the first few games on the schedule, his Cats won’t have much time to work things out.
Here are 10 big questions facing this Kentucky team.
Is Oscar healthy?
Reigning national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe is back for his second act at UK, but it seems unlikely he’ll play in the Cats’ opener Monday night against Howard as he continues to recover from an Oct. 13 knee procedure. All indications are that Tshiebwe will be just fine — and it sounds like he’d be OK to play Monday if the Cats needed him — but a preseason knee injury to the 260-pound best player in basketball is not easily dismissed. As hard as Tshiebwe plays — and as much as the Cats will lean on him — that knee will be watched closely throughout the season. The current expectation is that he will be able to play full minutes in UK’s game against Michigan State next week, though this is a cloud that will likely hang over the Cats’ entire season, no matter how the rebounding king looks when he returns to the court.
Can Wheeler rein it in?
UK point guard Sahvir Wheeler is dealing with his own injury issues — he has apparently tweaked the same knee twice in the past couple of weeks, another worrying sign — but John Calipari seems to expect him back relatively soon. When he does return, his game will be closely scrutinized. At his best, Wheeler can be a wizard with the basketball and an absolute pest on defense. Sometimes his offensive approach can be frenetic, however, and the end of the Saint Peter’s loss — one marred by multiple miscues — is a prime example. Wheeler has been preaching “efficiency” as an area of focus going into this season. Part of that is becoming a better shooter. But a bigger part should be making the right decisions with the ball, especially in crunch time. When healthy, this UK team should have plenty of potent offensive weapons around the 5-9 point guard, so there shouldn’t be a need to force low-percentage shots or passes. It’ll be an adjustment for the veteran point guard, but it’s one he’ll need to make for the Cats to live up to their full potential.
Is there enough shooting?
Some of Calipari’s best teams have been undone by poor outside shooting. It looks like this team should be fine — perhaps even great — from long range, but there’s not a ton of demonstrated success at the college level. CJ Fredrick is a 46.6-percent shooter over two college seasons, though his career has also been marred by injuries. Antonio Reeves shot 39.0 percent as a junior last season, but he shot just 30.9 percent his first two seasons. Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston bring the reputation as capable threats from three, but they’re both freshmen, and it’s a skill that doesn’t always translate immediately. Jacob Toppin has been hyped as a deep threat, but he attempted only 10 threes last season. And point guard Sahvir Wheeler shot just 30.8 percent last season and 22.5 percent the year before that. The Cats have a lot of potential here, but judgment will need to be reserved until they show it in real games.
Can Fredrick stay on the court?
CJ Fredrick is a ridiculously good three-point shooter, but he’s a lot more than that. And Kentucky will need his steady hand on the court as much as possible this season. A college career stalled by injuries seems ready to reignite. Fredrick has said he’s going into this season at 100 percent for the first time in two years. But this will be his fifth year on a college campus, and he’s yet to have an injury-free campaign. There was a collective gasp in Rupp Arena when Fredrick buckled to the ground and held his leg during the final exhibition game last week. He was fine, but Kentucky fans — and players, and coaches — are likely to hold their breath whenever that happens moving forward. For good reason. Fredrick can impact the game in a variety of ways — scoring, passing, dependable defense — but he’ll obviously need to stay healthy to do it.
Will Toppin take the next step?
To go from potential national championship team to actual national championship team, Kentucky probably needs Jacob Toppin to emerge as an all-conference-type player. And that seems to be the expectation around the program. The fun-loving forward has developed a much more serious approach to the game over the past few months, and he has shown what he’s capable of in the Cats’ preseason games. Now the real season begins, and Kentucky will need Toppin to be a consistent force. He’s shown plenty of flashes in the past. He’ll need to take it to the next level and put together full games, and he has the offensive arsenal and defensive prowess to do it. He’ll also be given every opportunity to emerge as one of UK’s key players.
Who’s the starting five?
When the team is at full health, Sahvir Wheeler, Jacob Toppin and Oscar Tshiebwe are locks for the starting lineup. John Calipari is fond of saying that who starts doesn’t matter much, but Cason Wallace would also seem to be a no-brainer in the first five. After that, it’s tough to call. As of now, the final spot probably goes to CJ Fredrick or Antonio Reeves to give the Cats a major shooting threat off the bat. Calipari said last week that he likes the idea of Reeves as a heater off the bench. But he said right after that Fredrick could also play that role. As always with Calipari, it’s who finishes the games that will matter the most. That could be based on matchups, but it’ll be interesting to see who’s playing and who’s sitting in crunch time.
Who gets left out?
Kentucky has 11 scholarship players. John Calipari likes to play eight or so guys by the end of the season. So, something has to give. Over the summer, it seemed like freshmen Adou Thiero (a three-star recruit) and Ugonna Onyenso (a raw reclass and late enrollee) would be pushed to the side relatively quickly, their games full of promise but their playing time reserved for future teams. Both have been impressive in the preseason, however. Junior forward Lance Ware, who has seen limited playing time over his first two seasons, has also done well with his opportunities while Oscar Tshiebwe has been sidelined. There are high hopes for Daimion Collins’ second college season, but the tragic passing of his father last week has obviously pushed basketball to the side for the moment. And Calipari has stressed that Collins will be on his own timetable moving forward. Expectations for him on the court should be tempered for the time being. Getting everyone healthy will be UK’s top priority in the short term. Calipari will likely have some tough decisions to make a few months from now.
Who’s the go-to guy?
The Wildcats won’t be lacking for talent, but who gets the ball at the end of close games? This is another one that likely depends on matchups, as well as who has the hot hand in the moment. Obviously, the offense should flow through Oscar Tshiebwe most of the time, but he might not be the best option on the final possession. Sahvir Wheeler can discombobulate a defense, but will John Calipari trust him with the ball in the final seconds? Jacob Toppin has the potential. Cason Wallace does, too. Perhaps it’s CJ Fredrick running around screens to get himself open, or a play designed for Antonio Reeves to get some space? There’s plenty of intrigue here. And no clear answers yet.
Can UK get the Louisville region?
Looking further into the future: the NCAA Tournament South Regional will be held in Louisville, and UK would like nothing more than to be placed in that bracket on Selection Sunday. Playing for a trip to its first Final Four in eight years in front of what would undoubtedly be a majority-blue crowd just a little more than an hour from home? John Calipari would take that. To clinch that right, the Cats will need to win a whole lot of games. The clearest path would be to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, obviously a tall task. Otherwise, they’d need to be a relatively high seed and ranked higher on their seed line than any geographically similar teams. It could get a little — OK, a lot — more complicated than that, but the gist is this: the more regular-season games the Cats win, the better shot they likely have to play the second week of the NCAA Tournament in Louisville, a remarkable home-court advantage for a possible trip to the Final Four.
Who comes back?
With Kentucky basketball, it’s never too early to speculate on what happens next, especially with a possible No. 1-ranked recruiting class in the works for next season. Who will be left to play with the new recruits? That’ll largely depend on how this season goes, but the vibe around the program seems to be preparation for a mass exodus a few months from now. Every player on this roster has at least one more season of college eligibility beyond this one, but the likely scenario is that several players head for the exits. There will be hope for a second Oscar Tshiebwe return, but that’s too much for Kentucky fans to realistically wish for, no matter what his NIL earnings look like. Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston are projected NBA Draft picks. Daimion Collins is also on ESPN’s latest list of the top 60 draft prospects. Jacob Toppin, Sahvir Wheeler and Antonio Reeves have all tested the NBA waters before. That leaves CJ Fredrick, Lance Ware, Adou Thiero and Ugonna Onyenso, but — as UK fans know as well as anyone — no return is guaranteed in college basketball these days. This question won’t be answered until next spring. Until then, it’s best to just enjoy the ride.
Monday
Howard at No. 4 Kentucky
What: 2022-23 regular-season opener
When: 6:30 p.m.
TV: SEC Network
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: First meeting
