Hoping Kentucky can make the NCAA Tournament? Here’s who you need to root against.
For all the doom and gloom surrounding Kentucky basketball following losses to Arkansas and Georgia last week, the reality of the situation is that the Wildcats still have a very real shot at making the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
In fact, UK started the week still in the field of 68, according to the Monday morning projections from Bracketville, a website run by longtime bracketologist Dave Ommen, who places the Cats at No. 43 on the seed list — ahead of three other teams on the right side of the bubble. In its “Bubble Watch” feature following Kentucky’s loss to Georgia on Saturday afternoon, CBS Sports also had the Cats among the last four teams in the tournament.
The post-Georgia-loss bracketology updates on ESPN and BracketWAG.com, however, had the Wildcats among the first four teams out of the March Madness field.
UK’s ability to avoid a free fall in the bracket projections following that defeat in Athens is due partly to several other bubble teams also losing over the weekend.
The five teams sitting just on the wrong side of the bubble on Bracketville’s seed list Monday morning — Wisconsin, Oregon, Southern Cal, Clemson and Seton Hall — were all weekend losers. North Carolina, another team near UK in all of the bracketology updates, lost again Monday night.
With three weeks remaining in college basketball’s regular season, two things are true of Kentucky’s situation …
1. The Wildcats need to win some games.
2. It sure would help UK’s cause if other bubble teams kept losing.
That means Kentucky fans holding out hope that the Cats (16-9, 7-5 SEC, 1-7 in Quad 1 games and 45th in the NET ratings) can make the tournament and then make a run should probably be doing a little scoreboard-watching over the next three weeks.
Here’s a look at 10 teams in UK’s vicinity on the latest Bracketville seed list. Their loss(es) will be the Wildcats’ gain as Selection Sunday nears. (All records and ratings are through Monday night’s games).
Mississippi State
Record: 17-8, 5-7 SEC
NET rating: 40
Quad 1 record: 3-5
What’s left? Here’s a chance for Kentucky to kill two bubble birds with one stone: the Cats travel to Starkville on Wednesday, and a victory over the Bulldogs would give UK just its second Quad 1 win while also dealing a defeat to a team occupying similar territory in the NCAA Tournament picture. Mississippi State’s only remaining Quad 1 game comes next week at Missouri, with Quad 2 games left against UK and Texas A&M (both home) and Mississippi and Vanderbilt (both away), plus a Quad 4 home game against South Carolina. The Bulldogs have won five straight heading into Wednesday night’s game.
North Carolina
Record: 16-10, 8-7 ACC
NET rating: 46
Quad 1 record: 0-9
What’s left? If you think UK’s 1-7 Quad 1 record is bad … you’re correct. But UNC is 0-9 in such games. Yikes. The Tar Heels have two Quad 1 opportunities left: at North Carolina State on Sunday and at Virginia on Feb. 25. UNC also has a Quad 2 home game against Duke, plus Quad 3 road games against Florida State and Notre Dame. The major-conference team with the lowest number of Quad 1 wins to land an at-large bid in 2022 was Notre Dame, which had a 2-8 record in such games. (UNC was 3-8 in Quad 1s last season before advancing to the national title game as an 8 seed).
Memphis
Record: 19-6, 9-3 AAC
NET rating: 41
Quad 1 record: 2-2
What’s left? Penny Hardaway is looking for his second consecutive NCAA Tournament berth, and the Tigers are just barely on the right side of the cut line after winning seven of their last eight. They have two big ones left against Houston — the No. 1 team in the NET ratings — with a road game against the Cougars on Sunday and a home game on the final day of the regular season. Next up is a Thursday home game against UCF, one of three remaining Quad 2 opponents (Cincinnati and Wichita State are the others). There’s also a Quad 3 game at SMU.
Texas A&M
Record: 18-7, 10-2 SEC
NET rating: 34
Quad 1 record: 2-4
What’s left? The second-place team in the SEC standings is still firmly on the bubble, according to the bracketology world. And five of the Aggies’ six remaining games are against Quad 1 competition: Arkansas on Wednesday, at Missouri on Saturday, home against Tennessee and at Mississippi State next week, then a trip to Arkansas on the last day of the regular season. A&M also has a Quad 2 game at Ole Miss in two weeks. That No. 34 NET rating is a plus. Last year, Oklahoma — at No. 39 in the NET — was the best-rated team to miss out on an at-large bid. Two years ago, every team in the top 40 of the NET ratings landed in the tournament field. It’s worth adding that if A&M keeps winning and can get to top 30 in the NET, it would give Kentucky another Quad 1 victory.
New Mexico
Record: 19-6, 6-6 Mountain West
NET rating: 48
Quad 1 record: 3-2
What’s left? The last team in the tournament field, according to the Bracketville projections to start the week, New Mexico has lost four of five games after starting the season with a 14-0 record. Richard Pitino’s Lobos have two big Quad 1 opportunities next week: at Boise State and San Diego State at home. Up next is a Quad 2 game at San Jose State on Friday, with another Quad 2 game at Colorado State to close the regular season. Their other two games are Quad 4s. Kentucky fans should hope that this team’s struggles continue over the next couple of weeks.
Wisconsin
Record: 14-10, 6-8 Big Ten
NET rating: 80
Quad 1 record: 5-6
What’s left? The first team out, according to the Bracketville projections, the Badgers have lost eight of their last 11 games. Wisconsin has three Quad 1 games left, starting with Rutgers at home on Saturday. (A trip to Michigan next week and a home date against Purdue on March 2 are the others.) Also on the schedule: Quad 2 home games against Michigan and Iowa and a Quad 4 trip to Minnesota. The Badgers’ standing at No. 80 in the NET ratings is a major minus but maybe not a disqualifier. Over the three NCAA Tournaments that have featured the NET ratings, the lowest-ranked team to land an at-large bid has been rated 72nd (Wichita State in 2021), 73rd (St. John’s in 2019) and 77th (Rutgers last year).
Oregon
Record: 15-11, 9-6 Pac-12
NET rating: 50
Quad 1 record: 3-7
What’s left? None of Oregon’s five remaining games will be against Quad 1 opponents, and only two will feature Quad 2 competition (at Washington on Wednesday; at Washington State on Friday). So the Ducks — currently projected to miss the tournament — probably need to do well in those games, finish out the season strong, and hope others around them stumble. The rest of their schedule includes two Quad 3 games, one Quad 4 contest, and a Pac-12 Tournament that probably won’t have many opportunities for quality wins. Kentucky should be rooting against the Ducks this week.
Southern Cal
Record: 17-8, 9-5 Pac-12
NET rating: 64
Quad 1 record: 2-4
What’s left? The Trojans have a paltry Quad 1 mark but three more opportunities, starting with road games at Colorado and Utah next week (plus a home game against Arizona on March 2.) Up next will be a Quad 4 home game against California (3-22, 2-12 Pac-12) on Thursday night. Rooting against the Trojans, who have little margin for error, in next week’s games should be of particular interest for UK scoreboard-watchers.
Clemson
Record: 18-7, 10-4
NET rating: 77
Quad 1 record: 2-4
What’s left? Losers of three straight and owners of a bad NET mark, Clemson gets two Quad 4 gimmes this week — home against Florida State and at Louisville — but neither game would move the needle in a positive direction. The Tigers still need some statement wins, and they have two big chances coming up: Feb. 25 at N.C. State and Feb. 28 at Virginia — two games guaranteed to stay in Quad 1 territory.
Seton Hall
Record: 15-11, 8-7 Big East
NET rating: 62
Quad 1 record: 3-6
What’s left? Seton Hall has three games remaining against Quad 1 opposition: at UConn on Saturday, a home date with Xavier next week, and Providence on the road to end the regular season. The Pirates’ other regular-season games are in the Quad 3/4 categories, but knocking off some of those higher-ranked teams could make a statement for a team that needs to do more to make the tournament field. Bracketville has Seton Hall as its fifth team out to start this week, eight spots behind Kentucky on the seed list. The Pirates are coached by Shaheen Holloway, who led Saint Peter’s to that upset over UK in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.
Wednesday
Kentucky at Mississippi State
When: 8:30 p.m. EST
TV: SEC Network
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Records: Kentucky 16-9 (7-5 SEC), Mississippi State 17-8 (5-7)
Series: Kentucky leads 100-21
Last meeting: Kentucky won 82-74 in overtime on Jan. 25, 2022, in Lexington
This story was originally published February 14, 2023 at 6:30 AM.
