Even in the most unpredictable of Kentucky men’s basketball seasons, several patterns have emerged to watch for in the postseason.
Over the last four months, trends have developed to signify success for head coach John Calipari’s team, which is now safely into the projected NCAA Tournament field.
With the Wildcats beginning SEC Tournament play on Friday night in Nashville, here are three key statistics to watch for that would likely spell victory for UK in the month of March.
Kentucky took a 21-10 record into the start of SEC Tournament play on Friday night. Silas Walker swalker@herald-leader.com
Kentucky was 18-0 this season when leading or tied at halftime
If it feels like Kentucky hasn’t let a halftime lead slip this season, it’s because the Wildcats haven’t: UK was a perfect 18-0 when either tied or leading at halftime.
Conversely, this means UK was 3-10 this season when trailing at halftime.
“Sometimes in the first half we might start a little bit slow, but the second half we know it’s now time to go win the game,” senior Oscar Tshiebwe said Wednesday morning before the Cats departed for Nashville.
“We always came back in the second half on fire, just be ready to play. Because what coaches say in the locker room, it motivates us and gives us hope. ... We cannot give these people the chance to think they can beat us.”
Antonio Reeves (12) is connecting on 40.8 percent of his three-pointers. Kentucky is second in the SEC in percentage from beyond the arc. Silas Walker swalker@herald-leader.com
UK was 13-0 this season when making at least 36% of three-pointers
During non-conference play, Kentucky’s success shooting three-pointers appeared to not be a true reflection of the Wildcats’ shooting ability: UK loaded up with good distance shooting games against bad teams, while struggling to make three-pointers against quality opponents.
But despite this dubious start, Kentucky’s three-point shooting was a strength during SEC play: UK makes 35.9% of its three-point shots, which ranks second in the SEC only behind Missouri (36.2%).
Unsurprisingly, there’s a direct correlation between Kentucky’s three-point shooting and its wins: The Cats were 13-0 this season when making at least 36% of their three-pointers.
Three players — Adou Thiero (42.9%), Antonio Reeves (40.8%) and Sahvir Wheeler (36.6%) — were shooting 36% or better from deep.
Reeves (169 three-point attempts) and Wallace (118) were UK’s leaders in three-pointers attempted.
Oscar Tshiebwe entered the SEC Tournament as the nation’s leading rebounder at 13.1 per game. Silas Walker swalker@herald-leader.com
The Wildcats were 21-5 this season when winning the rebounding battle
This may be an obvious statistic given the generational rebounding presence Kentucky possesses in Tshiebwe, but when UK capitalizes on its advantage on the glass, the Cats usually win.
Kentucky was 21-5 this season when gathering more rebounds than its opponent. This also means UK has out-rebounded its opponent in 26 of 31 games (83.9%) this season.
As of Thursday morning, Tshiebwe was the nation’s leading rebounder with an average of 13.1 rebounds game. He’s the only player in the country to average at least 13 rebounds per contest.
But it hasn’t just been Tshiebwe who has contributed to Kentucky’s per-game average of 38.84 team rebounds, which ranks 19th in the country.
Over the last six games (during which UK went 5-1), Tshiebwe averaged 12 rebounds per game, while freshman Chris Livingston averaged eight and senior Jacob Toppin averaged 7.5.
This span included four double-digit rebounding performances from Tshiebwe, three from Toppin and two from Livingston.
“They’ve had to,” Tshiebwe said of the big rebounding performances this season by Livingston and Toppin. “I told them, if (the opponent) is going to put three people on me, then they’re not getting rebounds. So Chris, Jacob, go get the ball. ... We need everybody. That’s going to help us a lot.”
“That’s going to take a lot of pressure off me because some teams will say, ‘Now it’s Jacob, now it’s Chris, now (only) put two people on Oscar.’ If you put two people on me, I’m going to get the ball anyway.”
Cameron Drummond works as a sports reporter for the Lexington Herald-Leader with a focus on Kentucky men’s basketball recruiting and the UK men’s basketball team, horse racing, soccer and other sports in Central Kentucky. Drummond is a second-generation American who was born and raised in Texas, before graduating from Indiana University. He is a fluent Spanish speaker who previously worked as a community news reporter in Austin, Texas.Support my work with a digital subscription
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