Why injuries to Kentucky’s big men will throw a major wrench into Calipari’s 2023-24 plans
Now nearly 15 years into his tenure as Kentucky’s basketball coach, John Calipari has made it pretty clear what kind of player he prefers to be patrolling the paint for the Wildcats.
If anyone still had foggy notions on the subject, Calipari spelled it out as directly as possible during his first press conference of the summer late last month.
“My best teams have blocked shots. My worst teams have not blocked shots,” the UK coach said, repeating the statement for effect. “My best teams have blocked shots. My worst teams haven’t blocked shots. My best teams have blocked shots. Block shots! …
“We’re a little different now that you got a couple 7-footers. Now you can block shots.”
We’ll see about that.
Those two 7-footers that Calipari referenced — Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso — are both on the shelf, and they probably will remain there for a good chunk of Kentucky’s offseason.
Bradshaw suffered a foot injury during the McDonald’s All-American Game in late March, and — after about three months of hoping it would heal on its own — Calipari confirmed the five-star freshman underwent an “operation” last month.
Onyenso — a 6-11 sophomore — was expected to showcase his growing game at the GLOBL JAM in Canada last week. Instead, he was hurt during Kentucky’s closed-door scrimmage the day before the official games began. Calipari initially termed it as an ankle injury and didn’t immediately rule Onyenso out of the competition, but the sight later that day of the UK big man in a protective boot, moving slowly and carefully with the aid of two crutches, made clear the injury was worse than originally believed. He ended up leaving Toronto early, and Calipari confirmed Tuesday that he had undergone a “minor procedure” for the injury.
Calipari didn’t offer a clear recovery timeline for Bradshaw, only that he didn’t expect him to miss any of the regular season, which begins in November. The UK coach said Onyenso would be out for “a couple of months,” a time frame that would also have him back for the Cats’ 2023-24 season.
Obviously, the best-case scenario for Kentucky is that both are able to return to the court in a timely manner and take part in the bulk of UK’s preseason preparation sessions.
The best-case scenario might not be the most likely one, however. Injuries in the preseason are never good, and foot injuries to big men are even worse. These are likely to be difficult setbacks to recover from quickly, especially for guys who will be counted on to do a lot of jumping — with other players playing a physical brand of basketball around them — in the post.
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And even if both Bradshaw and Onyenso hit their recovery timeline goals, the loss of months of on-court development will negatively affect their progress.
Onyenso was adamant before the Canada trip about how much he had improved since the end of last season, specifically citing his workouts with new UK assistant John Welch in helping him along. His teammates agreed that Onyenso was due for a breakout season in year two. Now, he’ll have to sit and watch for the rest of the summer.
Bradshaw has not yet met with reporters since his foot procedure, but he’s a player that has as much potential as any in the 2023 recruiting class. This would have been a key time for the 19-year-old to unlock more of that potential, and he won’t get the opportunity.
And having both of those guys out means the other Wildcats won’t have the luxury of practicing against them, learning to better rebound and finish at the rim against longer players.
Following UK’s victory over Canada in the GLOBL JAM gold medal game Sunday night, Calipari seemed to agree that having the two bigs sidelined gave him an opportunity to see what other players could do in different positions and scenarios. Those watching from home sure seemed to enjoy the more freewheeling, small-ball style that resulted from the absences, too, but Kentucky’s coach made it clear that it’s not exactly the way he prefers to go moving forward.
“You need some size. For rim protection,” Calipari said. “We didn’t have it last year, and that affected us. So you need another guy out there with size that … they know, ‘You’re not just driving in here for a free shot.’”
Blocked shots at Kentucky
Calipari is correct in his assertion that his best teams have been good at blocking shots.
His top three Kentucky squads — the 2009-10, 2011-12 and 2014-15 teams — were ranked fourth, first and second nationally, respectively, in blocked shots per game. His first Final Four team in 2010-11 was third in that category. His other Final Four team — the got-hot-late 2013-14 bunch — was ranked 13th in blocked shots per game.
While it’s not entirely true that his “worst teams have not blocked shots” — the 9-16 squad of the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season was third nationally, with Isaiah Jackson doing much of that work — it’s certainly accurate that Kentucky’s lack of recent postseason success has corresponded with a downturn in rim protection.
The 2020-21 team was the only UK squad in the past seven seasons to finish top 15 in shot-blocking. No Kentucky team in Calipari’s first seven seasons — when all four trips to the Final Four occurred — finished outside the top 15 nationally in blocks per game (and all but one of those ended up ranked in the top six).
So it doesn’t take a mathematician to understand that a key component of Calipari’s greatest success in Lexington has come via rim-protection, hence the hope for more of it this season.
It’s also clear that this 2023-24 roster is being constructed much differently than the past two.
Oscar Tshiebwe did a lot of things at a high level. Blocking shots was not one of those things. With Tshiebwe playing just about every available minute at the “5” spot the past two seasons, Calipari had his worst two shot-blocking teams, by far, in 14 years as head coach. The 2021-22 squad finished 63rd nationally in blocks per game. Last season’s team was 111th. None of Calipari’s previous 12 teams were worse than 31st.
Last season’s team was also Calipari’s worst at Kentucky in terms of opponent field-goal percentage (121st nationally) and had his second-worst KenPom defensive efficiency rating (68th), with only the 2013 NIT season — when Nerlens Noel was lost to injury — ending lower in that category.
That’s a lot of numbers to drive home the point that Calipari needs more defense, especially at the basket, this time around. And with a bunch of young players trying to guard older, savvy opposition on the perimeter, he needs stoppers like Onyenso and Bradshaw as that last line of defense at the rim.
Calipari plays small?
With those two players out in Canada, it left 6-9 power forward Tre Mitchell as UK’s starting “5,” joined by Adou Thiero — listed as a 6-6 guard — playing most of the minutes at the “4,” with 6-9 freshman guard Jordan Burks backing up Mitchell at center and 6-8 guard Justin Edwards filling in some as a power forward.
They all showed some good signs in their out-of-position roles, and Calipari said he particularly liked what Mitchell could bring as a small-ball “5” and the way Thiero — playing a more physical style than he did last season — operated in the paint.
The UK coach implied he might play Mitchell at the “5” some this season, but he also noted in the same breath that Bradshaw could be a “4” — likely taking over the center duties on defense.
Rebounding is also going to be an issue, even when Onyenso and/or Bradshaw return to the court. No one player is going to replace Tshiebwe’s dominance in that area. A team effort from the bigs, Mitchell, Thiero, Edwards and the smaller guards will be needed. And while Calipari said he liked Mitchell’s fight, he’s not the type to consistently get the tough rebounds this team will need.
“Tre’s not that guy,” Calipari conceded.
Kentucky was outrebounded 181-167 on the trip, against what was billed as the equivalent of high-level, mid-major college opposition.
Mitchell was UK’s leading shot-blocker with six. He averaged just 0.6 blocks per game over his past two seasons of high-major basketball (at West Virginia and Texas). Others chipped in. Reed Sheppard had five blocks, Calipari marveling at his ability to swat three-point attempts. Thiero also had five, gamely contesting shots near the rim. Burks added four blocks.
Those players can help once the season begins, likely to alter a shot here or there at the perimeter or as a result of help defense, but none project as the type of regular rim-protecting force that Calipari wants (and seemingly needs) on the court.
On this roster, only Onyenso and Bradshaw appear capable of filling that role. And few outside of Kentucky’s program have actually seen them play recently, leaving an important part of Calipari’s 2023-24 plans a major question mark as the season nears. It’s still possible that Kentucky looks to add another big before the start of the season. There were rumblings of such a move even before Onyenso’s injury in Toronto, and UK’s injury woes over the past few seasons surely have Calipari a little antsy heading into this one.
As if the UK coach needed something else to happen to drive home the point, Mitchell turned an ankle in the Cats’ third game Saturday afternoon, leaving his status somewhat in question for the gold medal contest the following night.
“Tre hurt his ankle last game. We didn’t think he was going to play today,” Calipari explained after the Cats won gold. “So I’m like, ‘OK. Adou, you’re gonna be our center.’”
Kentucky’s coach was grinning as he said it. But there was also a “you gotta be kidding me” look on his face.
Calipari knows the importance of getting his bigs back in the mix. UK’s entire season could hinge on how effective Onyenso and Bradshaw can be in the paint.
For now, Calipari and his coaching staff can only wait to see what happens next with those two players. It’s not an ideal spot to be in, even with about four months to go before the Cats take the court for their first real game.
