Projecting the Kentucky basketball depth chart. Who will play for the Cats this season?
Pro Day is in the past, Big Blue Madness will bring fans back to Rupp Arena on Friday night, and the countdown to another Kentucky basketball season is on.
But who exactly will be on the court when the real games begin a little more than three weeks from now? A whole lot of new faces, no matter how John Calipari decides to deploy his lineup.
The UK roster of 2023-24 features just one Wildcat who played major minutes last season and only three scholarship returnees, period. There are nine newcomers. Eight of those players are freshmen, and another No. 1 recruiting class for Calipari means Kentucky fans who haven’t been keeping a close eye on that roster turnover will have to study up on their Cats between now and the Nov. 6 opener against New Mexico State.
Even with all that change — as well as some lingering uncertainty across the roster — predicting who plays (and who doesn’t) for Kentucky this season is a manageable task.
Here’s a look at UK’s projected depth chart before Madness tips off the 2023-24 preseason.
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Kentucky’s backcourt
The options: D.J. Wagner, Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, Joey Hart.
It’s a pretty safe bet who will get the most minutes on the perimeter for Kentucky this season.
D.J. Wagner has consistently been the most-hyped prospect in his 2023 class going back to middle school, and the son of Dajuan Wagner — Calipari’s first major recruit at Memphis more than two decades ago — is all but certain to start the season as UK’s primary point guard. Wagner will need to make some refinements to his game — what freshman doesn’t? — and his decision-making (especially in halfcourt sets), ability to create for others, and outside shooting will all continue to be closely scrutinized by the pro scouts that have watched him for years. The 6-foot-3 freshman is often labeled as a “combo guard” — not a point guard — and proving his doubters wrong there will be key to both boosting his draft stock and carrying the playmaking load for the Cats this season.
Wagner will have the keys to Calipari’s offense, and he possesses a rare toughness and competitiveness that the UK coach is always looking for, especially at that position. The 18-year-old will play as many minutes as he can handle.
Antonio Reeves earned Sixth Man of the Year honors in the SEC last season, but he was as important to UK’s offense as anyone, the team’s leading scorer among backcourt players and its top 3-point shooter. Reeves played at least 29 minutes in 13 of Kentucky’s final 14 games, and he should be a 30ish-minutes-per-game player again this season. Assuming everyone stays healthy, there will be more talent around Reeves on the perimeter, but he’s the only player on the roster that is a proven, high-volume 3-point scorer, and Calipari will use his ability to stretch the floor with so many competent drivers on the team. (Reeves has shown he can create for himself, too.) His defense still needs work, but the same could be said for just about every one of his teammates. Reeves will see the court plenty in his final season of college.
Rob Dillingham was a disappointment at the GLOBL JAM in Canada over the summer — 22 points in 68 minutes, 31.0 percent from the floor and just 1-for-7 from 3-point range over four games — but don’t expect that to carry over into his freshman season. According to Calipari, the 6-2 combo guard was the best of Kentucky’s backcourt players in the practices leading up to that trip, and the buzz out of UK’s early fall workouts has had a similar tone. UK’s coaches clearly like what Dillingham brings to the court, and he’s long been regarded as one of the best (and shiftiest) scorers in his class. Dillingham will have to figure out a way to reconcile his explosive skill set with Calipari’s basketball worldview and his similarly talented teammates, but his attitude has also been praised behind the scenes over the past several weeks, so that doesn’t seem to be a problem. As long as he’s making shots and playing competent defense, Dillingham should play around or upwards of 20 minutes per game, and he could be a candidate to start and/or finish games, depending on matchups and what Kentucky needs at the end.
Reed Sheppard is already a fan favorite before playing his first game as a Wildcat, the state’s reigning Mr. Basketball and son of UK greats Jeff Sheppard and Stacey Reed Sheppard. He took a star turn in game two of the Cats’ trip to Canada, and his even-keeled and unselfish approach has quickly won over coaches and teammates. He’ll play in year one, that’s for sure. How much depends on a few different variables. He’ll need to take and hit open 3-pointers, a strength in the past. He’ll need to play solid defense, which hasn’t been a problem against previous competition, but this is a new level of basketball, and some recruiting analysts have questions, though UK’s coaches like what they’ve seen so far. “His defensive IQ is through the roof, and that’s something that we really like about him,” Orlando Antigua said at UK’s Pro Day. He’ll also need to continue to prove he can play that give-us-what-we-need role that Calipari lauded him for in Canada. He needs to be a player the UK coach can count on to do whatever is necessary at any given moment — and what exactly that is will change from game to game.
Sheppard will get his opportunities, and the degree of which will vary depending on the matchup, but averaging double-digit minutes over the course of the season seems a pretty safe floor, and his ceiling is considerably higher, especially if Calipari sticks with the small ball.
Joey Hart — a 6-5 guard from Indiana — was a late addition to UK’s 2023 recruiting class and is viewed as a long-term building block for the Wildcats’ roster, but he’s not expected to play considerable minutes this season, even with the injuries elsewhere on the roster.
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UK’s wings/forwards
The options: Justin Edwards, Tre Mitchell, Adou Thiero, Jordan Burks.
This is a pretty intriguing position group.
Justin Edwards — a 6-8, 190-pound wing — could be the most important player on Kentucky’s team and is already projected by USA Today and The Athletic to go with the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NBA Draft. While his ceiling is high, he also has plenty of instant-impact expectations and a versatile game that should translate quickly to the college level. Edwards can attack the basket well for a player of his size and has shown an ability to make 3-pointers at the high school and grassroots level. Like everyone else here, his defense will need work, but he has the length, athleticism and drive to be a solid perimeter defender. Calipari will also look to him to hit the boards at a high level, especially if he goes with some smaller lineups, and Edwards was the team’s second-leading rebounder on the Canada trip. If this UK team is going to be great — like, hang-banner-number-nine great — then Edwards will need to be a big part of it. Calipari sees the immense potential for the 2023-24 season, and the UK coach is going to stay on Edwards to develop as much as he possibly can over the next few months. He’ll be a UK starter and, like Wagner, play as many minutes as he possibly can.
Tre Mitchell was a late transfer to Kentucky. Of the nine newcomers to the program, he’s the only non-freshman. And while guys like Edwards and Wagner will get a large share of the spotlight, Mitchell could be the most likely player to lead the Wildcats in minutes this season. The 6-9 forward is best suited as a face-up “4” — and he’ll play that role a ton — but he looked great while playing the “5” in a pinch on the Canada trip, providing a veteran presence with an unselfish style and leading UK in rebounding in the process. He led the Cats in minutes at the GLOBL JAM, too, despite joining the program mere days before the team left Lexington for Toronto. His versatility, team-first approach and college experience — this is his fifth year in the NCAA after previous stops at UMass, Texas and West Virginia — will make him an invaluable piece to the UK puzzle, and Calipari will have him on the court as much as possible, especially with most of his frontcourt sidelined to start the season.
Adou Thiero might be the biggest wild card on the roster (excluding the trio of players who fill up the next position group on this list). An under-the-radar recruit a year ago, Thiero jumped into the mix as a result of injuries elsewhere and flashed enough promise to expect big things in the future, despite playing several different positions and never really settling into a specific role. Listed at 6-6 and 200 pounds, Thiero was a point guard in some games, a post player in some practices. He bulked up considerably over the course of his first season in Lexington but retained those point guard skills and instincts, making him a potentially dangerous — if unpredictable — part of this Kentucky team.
Thiero brought a physical style to the Canada trip and has talked up his eagerness to compete, knowing full well that Kentucky will need all hands on deck in that department to fill the void left by Oscar Tshiebwe’s departure. Best case scenario? Thiero muscles his way into major minutes — possibly even a starting spot, depending on whether Calipari wants to go small, especially early on — by doing a little bit of everything on the court and maintaining a high motor. Worst case scenario? He gets shuffled around again and never really finds a set role as others on the roster secure their own spots. Best bet? Thiero emerges as one of Kentucky’s key reserves and finds himself on the floor in crunch time on some nights.
Jordan Burks, like Joey Hart, was a three-star high school recruit and late addition to the UK class. Also like Hart, he was not expected to have a major impact on the 2023-24 season at the time of his signing, though — at 6-9 and possessing an intriguing scoring ability — there’s definitely plenty of potential here. And there now could be plenty of opportunity, too. With uncertainty hanging over the three remaining players on this list, Calipari will need all the help he can find in the post, especially in the season’s first few weeks. If Burks can buy into being a “5” in a pinch — as he did on the Canada trip — playing time should be available in the short term. And with his length, athleticism and raw ability, Burks could use that opportunity to carve out more of a long-term role.
Wildcats in the post
The options: Aaron Bradshaw, Ugonna Onyenso, Zvonimir Ivisic.
Where to even begin? If all three were healthy and ready to play, this had the potential to be an embarrassment of riches for Calipari and the UK coaching staff. But that won’t be the case, and there’s no guarantee that anyone from this trio will be truly prepared to play on Nov. 6.
Aaron Bradshaw has the highest upside here. That’s no slight to the other two. Bradshaw has arguably the highest upside of any player in the country. The 7-foot freshman has offensive skills that extend beyond the perimeter and the potential to blossom into a formidable shot-blocker (with some ability to defend away from the basket, as well). He suffered a foot injury in late March and underwent a medical procedure in June that has limited his ability to participate in UK’s preseason practices. Calipari said Wednesday night that he was still 5-6 weeks away from a full return to the court, a timetable that obviously stretches beyond the start of the regular season. That delay — plus the loss of developmental time over the summer — should temper expectations for Bradshaw’s immediate impact. That said, his overall skill set is so enticing that no scenario should be discounted. His best basketball is still probably years away, but if Bradshaw can make a major jump in the coming months, he’s probably best suited to be UK’s starting “5” as the season progresses. If he really hits, Bradshaw could be a lottery pick in next year’s NBA Draft.
Ugonna Onyenso was primed for a major opportunity as UK’s only healthy big man on the GLOBL JAM trip, only to go down with a foot injury during a closed-door scrimmage the day before the tournament officially tipped off. He had a medical procedure about a week later, and Calipari initially put a timestamp of a “couple of months” on his recovery, but that period has since passed and Onyenso still isn’t on the court. Calipari also put the “5-6 weeks” timetable on his return Wednesday night. If this injury lingers — and Onyenso does sound to be a bit behind Bradshaw with that process — it could put a major damper on his ability to play considerable minutes this season. Onyenso was already viewed as a somewhat raw, though definitely promising, college player, and he’s missed out on some crucial developmental time over the past few months. Expectations should be tempered, for now, but there’s no doubting his potential — especially as a rim-protector — once the 6-11 center gets back to full health.
Zvonimir Ivisic — aka “Big Z” — has been the talk of Big Blue Nation since his Aug. 1 commitment and subsequent drama surrounding his admissions status. For all the attention, you’d think he was a surefire NBA lottery pick, but that’s probably not the case. Ivisic has been mentioned in NBA prospect circles over the past couple of years, but if the 7-2 center had been selected, it almost certainly would have been a draft-and-stash situation, where the team that picked him continued to monitor his progress from afar before bringing him to America full time. You can’t teach 7-2, and he moves unbelievably well for that size, but there’s just no predicting what kind of impact he’d have at the college level this season.
He can shoot threes, but can he make them? There’s a difference. Is he strong enough to rebound against the bulkier players he’ll face this season? He can swat shots, but can he do it without fouling on a consistent basis? And can he defend away from the basket or work within team defense principles? These are all valid questions. And who knows if or when they’ll be answered.
Ivisic has been admitted to UK as a student but technically hasn’t been cleared by the NCAA to play yet, as there are “amateurism” hoops to jump through due to his time spent as a pro player in Europe. And he didn’t even arrive in Lexington until Thursday, shortening the window to get properly enrolled in fall classes. The clock is ticking on all fronts, and — even if all those boxes get checked — Ivisic will join Kentucky’s team incredibly close to the start of the season. Unless he shows up in game shape and sets the court on fire, it’ll probably be awhile before he makes a meaningful impact.
All three of the players in this group are on the NBA Draft radar for 2024, but each of their immediate outlooks for the college season is cloudy. And there might not be many minutes to go around. With the talent and depth elsewhere on the roster, don’t expect Calipari to play more than one of these guys at the same time. (He might talk it up in the preseason, but we’ll believe it when we see it.) And with Tre Mitchell possibly sliding into some minutes at the “5” spot to accommodate a smaller, faster-paced lineup, the math gets tricky, even if/when all three are good to go.
The most likely scenario seems to be 30-35 minutes available, total, for all three of these players to chase. Barring a situation like Bradshaw playing major minutes at the “4” — again, hard to bank on until Calipari actually does it — at least one of these players is bound to be largely left out of the mix.
Note: Only the 12 confirmed scholarship players were included in this roster breakdown. Returning walk-ons Brennan Canada, Kareem Watkins, Grant Darbyshire and Walker Horn will also be on the team this season.
Big Blue Madness
What: UK’s annual celebration of the start of the men’s and women’s basketball seasons
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Where: Rupp Arena
Tickets: Sold out
TV: SEC Network
