When will Kentucky play its first SEC Tournament game? Here are the most likely scenarios.
Only one game remains in the SEC men’s basketball regular season, and then it’ll be on to Nashville for next week’s league tournament.
When will Kentucky begin its postseason run? It’s still not clear.
With the No. 15-ranked Wildcats heading to Knoxville to play No. 4 Tennessee in the regular-season finale Saturday afternoon, several different scenarios remain for Kentucky’s seed in the SEC Tournament bracket.
Tennessee’s win at South Carolina on Wednesday night locked up the outright league title for the Volunteers, who will be the 1 seed in the SEC Tournament. After that, it’s a logjam in the standings, with Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn and South Carolina all holding 12-5 records in league play (and Florida right behind that bunch with an 11-6 mark).
The seeding process will be important, because only the top four teams in the league standings receive the coveted “double-bye” — a pass to the SEC Tournament quarterfinals next Friday. The teams seeded 5-8 will have to play their first tournament game on Thursday, which obviously makes for a longer march to the league championship game next Sunday.
If other SEC games this weekend play out as expected, the result of Kentucky’s trip to Knoxville will dictate whether the Wildcats will start their postseason on Thursday or Friday of next week. Here are the scenarios.
If Kentucky beats Tennessee …
To keep things simple, we’re going to assume the following results for Saturday’s games: Alabama beats Arkansas at home, Auburn beats Georgia at home, and Florida wins at Vanderbilt. All three of those teams should be double-digit favorites in those games.
South Carolina must travel to Mississippi State for its finale, a tough road trip, as evidenced by the current KenPom projection, which has the Gamecocks losing that one by five points.
If Kentucky beats Tennessee on Saturday — Alabama and Auburn win, as expected, and South Carolina loses — the Wildcats would get the 2 seed in the SEC Tournament by virtue of their wins over the Crimson Tide and Tigers in the three-team tiebreaker process.
If Kentucky beats Tennessee — and Alabama, Auburn and South Carolina win Saturday — that would set up a four-team tiebreaker for second place. In that scenario, UK would still get the 2 seed in the SEC Tournament, due to its 2-1 overall record against those teams. (Alabama and Auburn are both 2-2 against this group, and South Carolina is 1-2.)
So if the Cats win in Knoxville, and Bama and Auburn take care of business, Kentucky will be the 2 seed and play at 7 p.m. next Friday against the winner of the 7-10 game.
If UK wins Saturday and either Alabama or Auburn loses, a few different seeding scenarios would be in play — dependent on South Carolina’s result in Starkville — but the Cats would still be assured a double-bye in the SEC Tournament with a victory over the Volunteers.
Simple enough: win in Knoxville, and Kentucky won’t play its first tournament game until Friday.
If Kentucky loses to Tennessee …
This is where things get a little dicey.
If UK loses to Tennessee — the Vols beat the Cats 103-92 in Rupp Arena last month — and Alabama and Auburn win, all three of those teams will have better league records than Kentucky.
The Wildcats could still finish tied for fourth, but they wouldn’t get the 4 seed in the SEC Tournament.
If South Carolina beats Mississippi State on Saturday, the Gamecocks would finish a game better than Kentucky, bumping the Cats to fifth place and a spot on Thursday’s tournament slate.
If Kentucky and South Carolina both lose Saturday, they’ll both end up with 12-6 league records. If Florida wins at Vanderbilt, the Gators would also be 12-6, setting up a three-way tie.
South Carolina would win that three-way tiebreaker due to its victories over UK and Florida. The Gamecocks would also win a straight tiebreaker over Kentucky — if Florida were to lose to Vandy — due to their victory over the Cats in Columbia, the only head-to-head meeting between the teams.
If Kentucky loses and Florida wins Saturday, the Wildcats should still have the edge over the Gators. Those teams split their two-game series this season, and the next step of the tiebreaker process would be each team’s record against the teams at the top of the standings.
The SEC office confirmed to the Herald-Leader that if Kentucky loses Saturday and finishes 0-2 against Tennessee, that would count the same as Florida’s 0-1 mark against the Vols, for the purposes of the head-to-head tiebreaker. UK and Florida both lost to South Carolina and beat Auburn in their only matchups this season, but Kentucky finished 1-0 against Alabama, and the Gators were 1-1 against the Tide, so Kentucky would get the tiebreaker because of that.
That would give UK the 5 seed in the SEC Tournament, which would mean a tipoff around 3:30 p.m Thursday against the winner of the 12-13 game, then a meeting with the 4 seed around 3:30 p.m. Friday.
The only way Kentucky could get a double-bye if it loses Saturday would be if Alabama and/or Auburn loses, as well, but either of those results would be a major upset. The Wildcats control their own fate for the double-bye, but they’ll almost certainly have to knock off the No. 4 Volunteers on the road to get there.
This story was originally published March 7, 2024 at 6:30 AM.
