ESPN bracketology expert details what Kentucky basketball’s NCAA Tournament seed might be
Postseason play is just around the corner for Kentucky men’s basketball.
Mark Pope’s Wildcats are the 6 seed for this week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville, and UK will begin play in the event on Thursday night in the second round against 14 seed Oklahoma.
Pope has pledged to make SEC Tournament success a priority during his time at UK, a welcomed declaration for a UK fan base that has been starved for success in the conference tournament of late. But there’s another, obvious, reason why all associated with UK basketball should want a strong performance from the Wildcats this week in the league tourney.
NCAA Tournament seeding implications.
This was laid out by ESPN bracketology expert Joe Lunardi on Wednesday afternoon during a conference call with media members.
In his Thursday night bracketology update, Lunardi had Kentucky as a 3 seed playing its first- and second-round games in Milwaukee. This latest projection from Lunardi has UK lining up against 14 seed Montana in the round of 64. The winner of that contest would face the winner of 6 seed UCLA and 11 seed Drake in the round of 32.
This projection calls for Kentucky to be part of the West Region, which will have its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds played in San Francisco. The 1 seed in this projected region is Florida.
Lunardi said Wednesday that Kentucky’s tournament profile, to him at least, is that of a 3 seed, with a 2 seed likely not in the cards.
“I don’t see them as a 2, without probably playing on Sunday (in the SEC Tournament championship game). And that’s realistically as far ahead as we can project the committee reacting,” Lunardi said after being asked by the Herald-Leader about UK’s outlook.
“When (the SEC Tournament championship game) tips off at 1:30 on Sunday, Kentucky’s seed is done,” Lunardi added.
Of course, NCAA Tournament bracketology remains an incredibly fluid process with just days left until Selection Sunday. The full 68-team field for this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament will be revealed at 6 p.m. EDT Sunday during a made-for-TV announcement on CBS.
Part of this fluid process of projecting what the tournament field will look like — as well as what seeds teams will earn — involves evaluating how programs fare in conference tournaments.
Should Kentucky get past Oklahoma in Thursday’s second round of the SEC Tournament, then Pope’s team would play 3 seed Alabama in a Friday quarterfinal. The Crimson Tide have already topped the Wildcats twice this season.
That potential game would give Kentucky the chance to record a ninth win this season over an opponent ranked in the top 15 of the AP poll at the time of the game. Alabama is currently the No. 5 team in the AP poll. UK is No. 15.
But, Lunardi listed Alabama as one of three teams that he currently has slotted as a 2 seed for March Madness that he doesn’t think the Wildcats can catch. The other schools in this regard are Tennessee (a team UK has already defeated twice this season) and Michigan State.
Lunardi said that he could see Kentucky catching and passing Texas Tech for the final 2-seed spot in his projection.
It’s worth noting that Kentucky enters this week’s SEC Tournament with a significant measure of roster clarity. Fifth-year guards Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson are both done for the season due to injuries, but the 10 other scholarship Wildcats should be good to go.
UK’s injury report for the SEC Tournament includes only Kriisa and Robinson.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi explains UK basketball’s NCAA Tournament outlook
On Wednesday’s media call, Lunardi said Kentucky’s spot as a 6 seed in the SEC Tournament makes it more likely that they will end up as a 3 seed in the national postseason.
Kentucky didn’t secure a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. As such, Kentucky begins tournament play in the second round instead of in the quarterfinals.
“I think a 2 is really unlikely,” Lunardi reiterated about UK’s NCAA Tournament outlook. “They’re more likely to move down than up. But holding at 3 is significant.”
That’s because — should chalk hold in the NCAA Tournament bracket — a 3 seed would face a 2 seed in the Sweet 16, rather than a 1 seed.
Currently, Kentucky shares the 3 seed line in Lunardi’s projections with Iowa State, St. John’s and Texas A&M.
Right behind them are Lunardi’s 4 seeds: Clemson (which beat UK in December), Maryland, Purdue and Wisconsin.
Kentucky was a 3 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, the final edition of March Madness for UK in John Calipari’s 15-season run as head coach.
Should UK once again be a 3 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament, it would mark the third time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that the Wildcats are on the 3 line.
UK was a 3 seed in 1994, which was Rick Pitino’s fifth season as head coach. Kentucky won the SEC Tournament that year, but lost in the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament to 6-seed Marquette.
Kentucky was a 3 seed in 1999 — Tubby Smith’s second season as head coach — and also won the SEC Tournament that year. UK reached the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, with wins along the way over New Mexico State, Kansas (in overtime) and Miami (Ohio) before falling to a Michigan State team led by Morris Peterson and Mateen Cleaves.
Last season’s Kentucky squad was upset as a 3 seed by 14 seed Oakland in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Pittsburgh, which proved to be Calipari’s final game at UK.
Where is Kentucky basketball projected in bracketology?
Of course, Lunardi isn’t the only renowned bracketologist in the business. But, plenty of other experts at predicting and seeding the NCAA Tournament field in advance are in agreement with him on where the Wildcats will land come Sunday night.
As of Thursday night, the Bracket Matrix consensus is Kentucky as a 3 seed, although some projections are calling for UK to be as high as a 2 seed and as low as a 4 seed.
It’s also worth noting just how much this Kentucky team has, already, surpassed preseason expectations.
Last summer, Lunardi projected UK to be a 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
“It’s kind of the ludicrous nature of the sport at the moment — that you can go from no players and no coach to the Top 25. Or, at least, to the edge of the Top 25, I guess, in my case,” Lunardi told the Herald-Leader at the time of that projection. “It’s extraordinary. And the future would appear to be very bright.”
That bright future took only one season to materialize for UK, with the Cats out-pacing most preseason predictions. Now, Kentucky is expected to reach the second week of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
This comes as the SEC is set to potentially place more than a dozen teams in this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament.
Lunardi’s most recent projection from Thursday night has 14 of the 16 SEC teams making the NCAA Tournament field. Only LSU and South Carolina were omitted. Texas is currently projected to be the last team in the NCAA field.
2025 men’s NCAA Tournament information
The eight first-week sites for March Madness this year will be Cleveland, Denver, Lexington, Milwaukee, Providence, Raleigh, Seattle and Wichita.
But the Wildcats won’t be allowed to play at Rupp Arena, reducing Kentucky’s potential travel options for next week’s NCAA Tournament to one of the other seven options.
This year’s NCAA Tournament regionals will be played in Atlanta (South), Indianapolis (Midwest), Newark (East) and San Francisco (West).
The 2025 Final Four will be played April 5 and 7 at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
CBS Sports and Turner Sports will broadcast all 67 games of the tournament across TV channels CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV, as well as on digital platforms including March Madness Live.
This story was originally published March 12, 2025 at 2:12 PM.
