What a win over Texas A&M could do for Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament outlook
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Kentucky can move to a 6 seed with a Texas A&M win and rise in WAB.
- A win over A&M plus victory at Florida could lift Kentucky into 5-seed range.
- Losses this week risk dropping Kentucky to a 7 or even 8 seed by Selection Sunday.
Entering the final week of the college basketball regular season, Kentucky is on the upswing.
This hasn’t been the season many UK fans were expecting — the Cats already have 10 losses, and an SEC title is now unattainable — but there’s still a postseason to play, and what Mark Pope’s team does over the next couple of weeks could improve its chances at a better path through the NCAA Tournament.
On that front, the final road game of the season — at Texas A&M, set for 7 p.m. ET Tuesday on ESPN2 — could be a boon for Kentucky’s bracketology fortunes.
The win over Vanderbilt on Saturday was meaningful enough. That one led to a jump of two spots in UK’s “Wins Above Bubble” — better known as WAB — ranking, moving the Cats to No. 24 nationally in what has become an important metric for those on the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
The No. 24 position on the overall list would have Kentucky as the final 6 seed, and that’s exactly where the Cats are situated on the BracketMatrix.com board heading into the game Tuesday night in College Station.
Before the Vandy win, UK was No. 26 in the WAB and a 7 seed in most bracketology projections. After that showing in Rupp Arena on Saturday, the majority of bracketology boards BracketMatrix.com uses to create its consensus rankings had the Cats as a 6 seed.
The WAB assigns a numeric value between 0.0 and 1.0 to each game. More difficult games bring more of a WAB reward for a victory — and less of a WAB hit for a loss — and UK’s game at Texas A&M offers a lucrative opportunity.
According to the Torvik projections, the Cats would earn a 0.7-point bump in the WAB rankings with a win over the Aggies, an increase that would move them up to No. 21 in the overall rankings, independent of other results that occur during the midweek games.
With the only other regular-season game remaining on the schedule a high-reward, low-risk WAB matchup at home against red-hot Florida on Saturday, the Cats have a lot more to gain for their Selection Sunday résumé with a win Tuesday than they would with a defeat Saturday.
Basically, a win over A&M and a loss to Florida would be a net positive for UK’s March Madness profile, almost certainly keeping Kentucky as a 6 seed heading into next week’s SEC Tournament, where just one victory should be enough to lock up at least a 6 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
What if the Cats win both games this week? In that case, the Torvik projections would have Kentucky gaining 1.48 points in the WAB rankings. UK’s current number is 3.38, and a 2-0 week would move the team to No. 18 nationally on the current WAB board. That’s 5-seed territory.
But a victory over Florida — the only power-conference team that didn’t lose a game in February — will be an uphill battle, even in Rupp. First things first: a good showing Tuesday night in College Station, where the Cats are underdogs, according to the most prominent computer models.
Losing to Texas A&M would likely mean a drop of two spots in the WAB, based on the current board, and that could put the Cats back in the 7-seed zone. Losing both games this week might have them in danger of dropping into 8-seed territory by Selection Sunday, depending on how things go in the SEC Tournament next week, but falling that far would likely necessitate a one-and-done showing in Nashville plus some positive movement by others in UK’s current tier.
So while UK’s NCAA Tournament outlook still has a range of possibilities, it definitely narrowed with the wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt last week.
Of course, there’s one way to guarantee a smoother path to a better seed. Just win.
UK star Otega Oweh said Monday he doesn’t seek out bracketology information this time of year, but he acknowledged that he’ll take a look if a projection comes across his phone.
“I’ve seen it,” he said of the Cats being in the 6-7 range. “If we just go win out, I feel like it’ll go better for us. So I don’t really try and pay attention. We just gotta be where our feet are and just try to win as many games and see where that lands us.”
Kentucky basketball bracketology updates
Once a team falls outside the top four seed lines, trying to predict where it’ll go in March Madness is a fool’s errand. So take the location projections tied to Kentucky over the next couple of weeks with a grain of salt.
That said, the first-week NCAA Tournament sites this year will be St. Louis; Greenville, South Carolina; Buffalo; Tampa; Philadelphia; Oklahoma City; Portland, Oregon; and San Diego.
The four regions will be played in Chicago (Midwest), Washington, D.C. (East), Houston (South) and San Jose (West). The closest tournament site to Lexington will be Indianapolis, the home of the 2026 Final Four, and those games are scheduled for April 4 and 6.
Here’s where some prominent bracketology boards had UK to start the week:
- ESPN’s Bracketology board was updated Tuesday morning, and Joe Lunardi moved Kentucky up from a 7 seed — its spot before the win over Vanderbilt — to a 6 seed in the latest refresh. Those projections now have the Cats playing 11-seeded Miami (Ohio), which is the nation’s only undefeated team, in Philadelphia. ESPN’s board has UK in the West regional, with 3-seeded Kansas as a potential opponent in the second round.
- CBS Sports has Kentucky as the 6 seed in the East, with the winner of the First Four game between TCU and New Mexico as its first-round opponent and 3-seeded Iowa State as its most likely second-round opponent.
- On3 still has UK as a 7 seed (also in the East), playing 10-seeded UCF in the first round in St. Louis before a likely date with 2-seeded Illinois (in what would be a rematch of last season’s round of 32 game).
- The Torvik website’s bracket projections have the Cats as the third 6 seed in the field, making them the No. 23 overall team on the list. Those projections do not include a traditional bracket prediction with matchups.
- Dave Ommen, longtime bracketologist and founder of the Bracketville website, had Kentucky at No. 22 on his seed list Tuesday morning, which would leave the Cats just two spots away from the 5-seed line. As it is, UK is a 6 seed going to Greenville for a first-round matchup with TCU in the Midwest regional, then a potential game against 3-seeded Purdue in the round of 32.
- BustingBrackets.com projects Kentucky as a 6 seed in the East, playing the winner of a First Four matchup between TCU and Santa Clara in game one, then a potential meeting with 3-seeded Texas Tech in the round of 32. That site has UK going to Oklahoma City.
Duke (East), Michigan (Midwest) and Arizona (West) are unanimous picks to land the top three 1 seeds heading into the final week of the regular season, with UConn the consensus pick as the final 1 seed, though Florida could challenge the Huskies for that position by winning out.
As of now, Florida, Houston, Iowa State and Illinois are the consensus 2 seeds. Those are the teams a 7 seed could face in the round of 32.
Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State and Kansas are currently projected as the consensus 3 seeds. A 6 seed in the bracket would be matched up with a 3 seed for the round of 32.
And the consensus 4 seeds right now are Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Alabama and Virginia. A 5 seed would be matched up across from the 4 seed in the bracket.
Selection Sunday is set for March 15 at 6 p.m. ET on CBS.
This story was originally published March 3, 2026 at 6:30 AM.
