How could this week affect UK basketball’s NCAA Tournament outlook?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- UK basketball is currently projected as a 7 seed for the NCAA Tournament.
- The Wildcats are the 9 seed for this week’s SEC Tournament.
- Kentucky plays 16 seed LSU in a first-round SEC Tournament game on Wednesday afternoon.
Kentucky basketball is currently tracking toward its worst NCAA Tournament seed in more than a decade.
That’s the stark reality the Cats are faced with entering this week’s SEC Tournament, which begins for Kentucky on Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. EDT with a first-round matchup against LSU at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.
As of Monday night, UK is projected to be a 7 seed in the national postseason. That’s where the Cats are positioned in the aggregate projections at BracketMatrix.com. It’s also where ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UK in his most recent bracketology update.
A 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament would be Kentucky’s worst seed in the event since 2014, when the Cats were an 8 seed. That tournament trip ended with UK’s most recent appearance in an NCAA title game, a loss to 7 seed Connecticut. UK failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 2021 and 2013.
This Kentucky team is almost out of time to make its case for a better March Madness seed.
During a media conference call Monday afternoon, the Herald-Leader asked Lunardi about the Cats’ seeding outlook for the NCAA Tournament.
“They don’t have a point guard, and that tends to lead to erratic play in my experience,” Lunardi said, referencing the season-ending right shoulder injuries to junior guard Jaland Lowe. “They sure don’t look consistent enough to circle a lot of times if you’re one of those people who likes to fill out a bracket.”
UK’s body of work is largely in place. The Cats will enter the conference postseason with a 19-12 overall record and a 10-8 mark against SEC foes. As of Monday night, UK was No. 28 in the all-important Wins Above Bubble rankings.
Kentucky’s up-and-down performances and heavy defeats this season haven’t impressed Lunardi in his role as ESPN’s top tournament prognosticator.
“They look very much like a win-one, lose-one in the tournament kind of team,” Lunardi said. “If it wasn’t for the fact that the jersey says Kentucky, I think everybody would kind of think that way.”
Mark Pope’s team is the 9 seed in the SEC Tournament, and if it beats 16th-seeded LSU, it will play 8 seed Missouri on Thursday afternoon. That’s the same Missouri team that pulled a late-game stunner in early January to win at Rupp Arena and saddle Kentucky with an 0-2 start to SEC play.
If the Cats were to get past the Tigers, they’d earn a third meeting this season with 1 seed Florida on Friday afternoon. The Gators have already scored two wire-to-wire wins over UK this season, the most recent one coming last Saturday.
LSU is eons away from NCAA Tournament contention. Both the BracketMatrix and Lunardi have Missouri as a 10 seed in March Madness, although the Tigers shouldn’t feel too comfy in that spot. Lunardi has Dennis Gates’ team in the “On The Bubble” category. Missouri is one of Lunardi’s last four byes into the NCAA Tournament, which means the Tigers are one of the final teams that would avoid the First Four round.
What could a couple of Kentucky wins in the SEC Tournament — including one over a potential NCAA Tournament team — do for its March Madness outlook?
“Can they be a 5 or 6 (seed)? Sure... If they can win two or three games against NCAA-level competition while others are losing,” Lunardi said. “... So, (can) Kentucky do much to change their status? I think a seed line, maybe two at the outside.”
Even if UK were to make an unlikely run to the SEC semifinals or the final, Lunardi doesn’t think it would seismically change the Cats’ NCAA seeding.
Kentucky hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 2018.
“They could win the SEC tournament, I think, and not be seeded as one of the top 16 teams, in large part because their résumé is... erratic,” Lunardi said. “Also because that game is Sunday afternoon, and as much as the committee tells us that every game until the end matters, we’ve got a fair amount of evidence that it doesn’t always work out that way.”
Unless Kentucky can pull off some wins in the Music City, Pope could be stuck with his worst NCAA Tournament seed as a college coach. Pope guided two of his BYU teams to March Madness, and the Cougars were a 6 seed in both the 2021 and 2024 events. Last season, Pope’s first Kentucky squad was a 3 seed.
We’re now less than a week away from finding out UK’s NCAA Tournament situation. The selection show is set for 6 p.m. Sunday on CBS.
