This is UK basketball’s bracketology outlook after SEC Tournament loss

Kentucky basketball’s NCAA Tournament résumé is now set.

The Cats stand at 21-13 overall following Friday afternoon’s loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Mark Pope’s UK program made some noise in Nashville, Tennessee, winning two games in the conference postseason for the first time since 2018.

Still, Pope’s team fell well short of winning the program’s first SEC Tournament since that 2018 run. Now, Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament fate is in the hands of the selection committee.

Plenty of dominoes will fall between now and the 68-team bracket reveal. The NCAA Tournament selection show is set for 6 p.m. EDT Sunday.

But entering this weekend’s games, we have a good understanding of what UK’s general seeding outlook is. As of Saturday morning, bracketology boards have been updated ahead of the final days of conference tournament season.

Here’s a quick look at where some national bracketology projections have the Cats with less than 48 hours to go until the selection show.

UK basketball’s bracketology outlook

• Top ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has UK as the 7 seed in the Washington, D.C. regional, with Kentucky matched up against 10-seeded Santa Clara in the first round. That game would see UK face off against former Kentucky assistant coach Herb Sendek, who is in his 10th season leading the Santa Clara program. This would set up a likely round of 32 game for Kentucky against 2-seeded Iowa State. Lunardi’s latest bracketology has Kentucky playing its first and potential second-round games in St. Louis to begin the national postseason.

• CBS Sports projects UK as the 7 seed in the San Jose regional, with a first-round game on tap against 10-seeded Central Florida. This matchup would see UK play against ex-Cat Jordan Burks, who was a freshman contributor on UK’s 2023-24 squad. This projection calls for the Cats to have a round of 32 game against 2-seeded Michigan State, if UK can advance past its first round game. CBS Sports doesn’t project what the first-week sites would be.

• Kentucky is the 7 seed in the Chicago regional according to Sports Illustrated. That designation comes with a first-round game against 10-seeded NC State. According to SI, UK’s most likely round of 32 matchup would be against 2-seeded Houston. Like CBS Sports, the SI projections don’t include first-week sites.

• Longtime bracketologist Dave Ommen, founder of the Bracketville website, has UK as the No. 23 overall seed on his latest list. Ommen’s latest update calls for Kentucky to be the 6 seed in the Washington, D.C. regional, with a first-round game in St. Louis against the winner of a First Four contest between 11 seeds VCU and Miami (Ohio). As far as a potential second-round opponent goes, Ommen’s most likely foe for the Cats would be 3-seeded Illinois. The Cats and the Fighting Illini met in the second round of last year’s NCAA Tournament.

• USA Today’s most recent update also has Kentucky as the 7 seed in the San Jose regional, with the Cats pitted against 10-seeded Central Florida in the first round in St. Louis. A potential round of 32 matchup for UK, according to USA Today, is 2-seeded Illinois.

• The Torvik tournament seeding projections call for Kentucky to be a 7 seed and the No. 25 overall team in the NCAA Tournament field. This puts UK on the same seed line as UCLA and just below a group of 6 seeds that would include St. John’s, Louisville, North Carolina and BYU. Of note, the Torvik board doesn’t include an actual bracket or predicted NCAA Tournament pairings, only a projection of where teams will land on the overall seed list.

• Lastly, longtime bracketologist Jerry Palm is calling for UK to be the 8 seed in the Washington, D.C. regional, with a first-round opener against 9-seeded TCU in Greenville, South Carolina. Palm’s latest bracket features a potential second-round game for the Cats against 1-seeded Duke. The Blue Devils are in the mix to be the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

This story was originally published March 14, 2026 at 6:30 AM.

Cameron Drummond

Lexington Herald-Leader

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Cameron Drummond works as a sports reporter for the Lexington Herald-Leader with a focus on Kentucky men’s basketball recruiting and the UK men’s basketball team, horse racing, soccer and other sports in Central Kentucky. Drummond is a second-generation American who was born and raised in Texas, before graduating from Indiana University. He is a fluent Spanish speaker who previously worked as a community news reporter in Austin, Texas. Support my work with a digital subscription