The finances of Malachi Moreno’s stay-or-go decision, and more NBA draft notes
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Malachi Moreno must decide by 11:59 p.m. ET Wednesday whether to stay in the 2026 draft.
- Mock drafts and analysts are split on Moreno’s first‑round status in 2026.
- Returning to Kentucky would net Moreno NIL exceeding a late first‑round rookie salary.
Going into the final weekend before the NBA draft withdrawal deadline, Malachi Moreno remains undecided on whether to return to Kentucky or embark on his professional basketball career after just one season with the Cats.
Moreno has until 11:59 p.m. ET Wednesday to make a decision on his future, and the speculation over his status as a potential first-round pick in the 2026 draft continues to be a national talking point.
Dating back to last week’s NBA Combine in Chicago, college and pro analysts have been split on the legitimacy of the buzz that Moreno had ascended to first-round status in this year’s talent pool, which is generally regarded as stronger than usual.
The various mock drafts posted by prominent outlets in the wake of the Combine have reflected that split.
The latest projections this week from CBS Sports and USA Today did not include Moreno as a first-rounder, and ESPN’s updated board had the 7-footer at No. 36 overall — the sixth pick of the second round — should he decide to stay in the draft.
Meanwhile, a post-Combine mock draft from Yahoo Sports projected Moreno as the No. 23 overall pick to the Atlanta Hawks, who hold two selections in the first round this year. And on Thursday night, Adam Finkelstein, who was in attendance at the Combine and is one of four analysts tasked with compiling mock drafts for CBS Sports, updated his board to include Moreno as the No. 30 overall pick to the Dallas Mavericks, who also have the No. 9 pick in next month’s draft.
“I think this is a stretch, but if you believe Moreno’s first-round buzz is real, then Dallas could be a likely suitor,” Finkelstein wrote of projecting Moreno to go with the final selection in the first round.
Finkelstein and 247Sports national analyst Travis Branham also discussed the topic on a CBS Sports Network podcast earlier in the week, acknowledging the mysterious nature of the Moreno narrative.
“Over the last couple of days, I’ve been talking to some of my NBA sources, and some are confident that if he does stay in this NBA draft that he actually will get taken somewhere in that first round,” Branham said. “However, there’s obviously upside to coming back in a weak draft class and improving your stock over the course of the next season. And there’s no doubt in my mind he’d make more money next year if he were to return to Kentucky.”
Meanwhile, Finkelstein noted the recent wave of potential draft picks who have opted to return to college basketball and how that has somewhat diluted the back end of this year’s first round.
“It’s getting harder and harder to find qualified names for the end of that first round, given the amount of players who have opted to go back to college,” he said.
That all sums up the noise surrounding the situation and the dilemma facing Moreno, who UK coach Mark Pope has said was the program’s top offseason priority when putting together the 2026-27 roster.
With so many competing motivations at play, the first-round buzz that has been pinned to Moreno since Combine week could simply be coming from NBA teams looking to pad that range of the draft with as many quality options as possible. The chatter could also be manufactured as a way to boost Moreno’s potential NIL package should he opt to return to Kentucky.
If the first round talk is legitimate, however, Moreno does have a difficult decision to make. But as Branham pointed out, it could behoove him to come back to the Cats — both from a financial and basketball perspective — even if he is a good bet to go in the first round this year.
As an example, the compensation scale for the No. 25 pick in last year’s draft maxed out at a rookie salary of $2.98 million, with $3.13 million set for the second season of that first contract. For first-round picks, only the first two seasons are guaranteed. Second-round picks are not automatically guaranteed NBA contracts, though teams can sign such players to those deals.
If Moreno were to return to Kentucky for his sophomore season, his total NIL package would amount to more than the $3ish million he’d receive as a late first-round pick in this year’s draft. In addition to that financial stability, the 19-year-old would be in a position to potentially raise his stock significantly ahead of the 2027 draft, which is generally viewed as weaker than this year’s class.
As another example, the No. 14 pick in last year’s draft — the final selection in the lottery — was slotted to receive $4.9 million in rookie salary, with $5.15 due in Year 2, figures that are likely to be a few hundred thousand dollars higher by next year’s draft.
Pulling out of this year’s draft could delay Moreno’s opportunity to sign a second (potentially much more lucrative) NBA contract by one year, and that will surely be part of his calculus as he weighs this decision, though a return to UK would bring a financial boon on the front end that would also lead to higher payouts to begin his pro career, if he lives up to his potential.
Moreno took part in his agency’s “pro day” in Los Angeles earlier this week and is expected to continue meeting with NBA teams in the coming days, so it’s possible that his situation won’t be resolved until shortly before Wednesday’s deadline.
Milan Momcilovic’s NBA draft stock
The stay-or-go decision of Iowa State forward Milan Momcilovic remains a major focus in Kentucky basketball circles, as well, and not much has changed there in the past few days.
Momcilovic was pretty transparent during his media session at the Combine in Chicago last week about what it would take for him to stay in this year’s NBA draft pool.
“If I can get … late first round, I’m going to stay,” he said. “And then if I can get, like, a good second-round team that can guarantee me a good contract, I’d probably stay.”
As of Friday morning, there was no indication that those parameters have been met.
None of the most prominent mock drafts have the 6-8 forward projected in the first round. The latest ESPN board has him going No. 38 to the Chicago Bulls, while Yahoo Sports’ new mock draft has the Wisconsin native at No. 43 to the Brooklyn Nets.
It’s expected that if Momcilovic does return to college basketball, he will be one of the highest-paid players in the sport next season, with an estimated NIL package that could be roughly double what he’d receive as a late first-round pick, based on the rookie salary scale.
Kentucky and Louisville remain the two teams with the most buzz should the 21-year-old pull out of this year’s draft and come back to college for his senior season. Each program apparently has the necessary resources to lock up his commitment.
Momcilovic led the NCAA in both 3-point percentage and total makes from the perimeter last season, shooting 48.7% on 279 attempts from long range.
2026-27 college basketball rankings
Kentucky remains outside the Top 25 in the preseason rankings from the most prominent national outlets, despite Mark Pope putting together an intriguing roster of newcomers, a group that includes the likely starting backcourt of Zoom Diallo and Alex Wilkins as well as Senegalese forward Ousmane N’Diaye, veteran center Franck Kepnang and the return of high-upside wings Kam Williams and Braydon Hawthorne.
College basketball analysts clearly want to see more.
Even the return of Malachi Moreno likely wouldn’t lead to the Cats breaking into those Top 25 lists, which have been made under the assumption that he’d be coming back to Lexington.
The Herald-Leader spoke with several national analysts at the NBA Combine in Chicago last week, including some responsible for those preseason rankings, and the consensus was that if Pope can retain Moreno and add Milan Momcilovic out of the transfer portal, UK would vault into the top 15 range of the 2026-27 rankings.
That’s an indication of just how much is riding on these upcoming stay-or-go decisions, from a national perception standpoint, at least.
CBS Sports updated its rankings this week, with Florida retaining the No. 1 spot and five other SEC teams on the list: No. 7 Texas, No. 8 Arkansas, No. 15 Tennessee, No. 18 Alabama and No. 24 Vanderbilt.
Louisville is No. 14 in the latest CBS rankings, and the Cards could vault into the top 10 if they can beat out Kentucky for Momcilovic, assuming he pulls out of the NBA draft by Wednesday night.
Pat Kelsey’s 2026-27 roster will feature, among other intriguing names, returning guard Adrian Wooley, Kansas transfer Flory Bidunga, Oregon transfer Jackson Shelstad, Arkansas transfer Karter Knox, Iowa transfer Alvaro Folgueiras and five-star recruit Obinna Ekezie.
Quaintance, Oweh in mock drafts
The knee issues that kept Jayden Quaintance from suiting up for Kentucky in the final two months of the 2025-26 season have spilled over into the pre-draft process, but it hasn’t done much to hurt his stock, apparently.
Quaintance did not participate in the strength and agility drills or scrimmage at the Combine last week, telling the Herald-Leader there that he was still not fully cleared for all on-court activities.
He remains a potential lottery pick anyway.
A few prominent mock drafts have him in that range, including The Ringer (No. 12) and CBS Sports analysts Cameron Salerno (No. 13) and Isaac Trotter (No. 14). ESPN’s Jeremy Woo projected Quaintance at No. 20 in his post-Combine mock draft, acknowledging that he remains “one of the biggest wild-card picks” as teams are still trying to figure out his injury situation.
If healthy, he’d be a surefire lottery pick — likely a top 10 selection, even in this loaded class — and all it will take is one team to take a chance on him in next month’s draft to achieve that.
Meanwhile, former UK guard Otega Oweh appears to be in a solid spot to hear his name called on June 24, the second night of the NBA draft.
CBS Sports (No. 48), Yahoo Sports (No. 53) and The Athletic (No. 56) all have him projected in the second round on their latest boards, with others in attendance at the Combine talking up his potential fit as a role player at the next level.
