Mark Story: By one measure, Derek Willis is the most important player to UK’s NCAA title hopes

The closer it gets to NCAA Tournament time, the more amateur bracketologists put their zeal into finding an “edge.”

If you are seeking to identify the most likely 2016 men’s basketball NCAA champion, one place to look is the ratings produced by hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy.

Since 2002, every single NCAA champion except for one has rated in the top 25 in both Pomeroy’s adjusted offense efficiency and adjusted defensive ratings. (The sole exception was 2014 national champ Connecticut, 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency but only 39th in adjusted offense).

Through Sunday’s games, there are only four teams that now rank in kenpom’s Top 25 in adjusted offense and defense — Villanova (18th offense, fourth defense), Virginia (12th, ninth), Kansas (10th, 25th) and Xavier (25th, 19th).

Coming off its road rout of South Carolina on Saturday, Kentucky stands ninth in adjusted offense but is 37th in adjusted defense.

The good news for those aspiring to see UK take advantage of this wide-open season by making an unexpected charge to the school’s ninth NCAA title is that, by one historical measure, Kentucky is presently “eligible” to claim the national championship.

Call it the “Kentucky Homeboy Index.”

It is a fact of history that UK has never won a men’s basketball NCAA championship without having a player from the state of Kentucky playing a major role.

From Ralph Beard (Louisville), Wah Wah Jones (Harlan) and Kenny Rollins (Wickliffe) on Adolph Rupp’s first title team (1947-48) through sixth man Darius Miller (Maysville) on UK’s 2011-12 champs, there has been at least one Kentuckian among the top six scorers on every one of the Wildcats’ eight NCAA championship squads.

Coincidence, you say?

Could be.

Then again, last season’s Kentucky Wildcats were so talented they reached the Final Four unbeaten. That team had six players drafted by the NBA off its roster.

Yet there was no Kentuckian anywhere close to that team’s top six scorers.

No 2015 national championship banner went up in Rupp Arena, either.

Which brings us to Derek Willis. Starting with his double-double (12 points, 12 rebounds) at Auburn, the Bullitt East product has scored in double figures five times in Kentucky’s past nine games. The 6-foot-9 junior from Mount Washington has averaged 10.6 points and 7.4 rebounds over that stretch.

Willis’ outside shooting — he has made 42.6 percent (20-for-47) of his three-point tries over the past nine games — has given UK a prototypical “stretch-four” power forward. That has helped open the lane for Kentucky’s dribble-driving backcourt, especially stars Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray.

For my two cents, the experience of UK basketball is more enjoyable when you have home-state players playing important roles.

That is not the same as saying Wildcats coaches should be obligated to sign in-state prospects. UK coaches should recruit only the players they think are good enough to play regularly and help the Cats win.

All that coaches at UK (and the other state universities, for that matter) owe in-state prospects is to give them a look in recruiting and a fair evaluation.

As much fun as it has been to see Willis develop into a significant contributor in his third year at UK, it has been equally frustrating watching Madison Central product Dominique Hawkins endure what has been a star-crossed season.

In the preseason, word out of the UK camp was that Hawkins, Kentucky’s 2013 Mr. Basketball, was playing at a high level. Rather than getting a chance to carve out a rotation spot early in his junior year, however, the guard broke his hand.

Once he recovered, Hawkins was a hero in Kentucky’s tense 75-73 win over archrival Louisville. On that very big stage, Hawkins drained three three-pointers, scored 13 points and had UK’s final five points of the contest.

Rather than a getting chance to build on that breakthrough, he then suffered a high ankle sprain in UK’s next game with Mississippi. Hawkins (2.6 ppg) has not been a big factor since returning.

Which means, if you subscribe to the Kentucky Homeboy Index as an indicator of UK’s NCAA title aspirations, your hopes ride with Willis.

Since his emergence at Auburn, the forward has been slowly climbing the Kentucky scoring column.

After Willis scored eight points at Tennessee, he raised his season average to 6.9 and passed Marcus Lee for the magic sixth spot on the UK team. When Willis dropped 12 points on Florida, his average rose to 7.1, and he edged ahead of Skal Labissiere for fifth.

With six regular season games to go, the scoring averages now stand at Willis 7.3, Labissiere 6.9 and Lee 6.7.

So in case there is something to the “must have a Kentuckian among the top six scorers for UK to win it all” axiom, Wildcats fans have ample reason to pull for Derek Willis to keep scoring down the stretch.

This story was originally published February 15, 2016 at 5:42 PM with the headline "Mark Story: By one measure, Derek Willis is the most important player to UK’s NCAA title hopes."