Kentucky women’s basketball is back in NCAA Tournament picture. Here’s where things stand.
The NCAA Tournament was an unlikely destination for the Kentucky women’s basketball team as little as two weeks ago, when UK lost at home to No. 1 South Carolina.
That defeat was UK’s eighth loss in nine games, and it dropped the Wildcats to two games below .500 overall and six games below .500 in Southeastern Conference play.
But with the Cats seemingly dead and buried when it came to fulfilling the basic preseason expectation of reaching the NCAA Tournament, things began to change.
Five games and five wins later, Kentucky has returned to the NCAA Tournament picture.
Wins against Alabama, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and most recently Missouri on Thursday night — thanks to a career-best scoring night from forward Dre’una Edwards — have potentially changed the fortunes of what looked like a lost campaign in star guard Rhyne Howard’s final college season.
According to ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme, UK is currently in the 68-team NCAA Tournament field in his latest projection that was released Friday morning.
Creme has UK as the final team to receive a bye in the NCAA Tournament, which means the Cats are both in the field and projected to avoid being in the First Four.
Kentucky is projected by Creme as a No. 12 seed that would play No. 5 seed BYU in the first round in South Bend, Indiana.
Here’s where things stand for UK with Sunday’s regular-season finale at home against Auburn and next week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville still to come before Selection Sunday on March 13.
The numbers
Kentucky is 14-11 overall and 7-8 in SEC play.
As of Friday, the Wildcats are 40th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool), a metric that ranks college basketball teams and is used significantly by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
The NET is used to organize each team’s wins and losses into four different quadrants based on where each game is played and the opponent’s NET ranking.
Quad 1 games are the most difficult to win, followed by Quad 2, Quad 3 and then Quad 4, which are the easiest to win. This means a good Quad 1 record is impressive, while a bad Quad 4 record is disastrous.
UK’s wins and losses this season, as of Friday, fall into the current categories.
Quad 1: 4-7
Quad 2: 3-4
Quad 3: 2-0
Quad 4: 5-0
Using Creme’s latest projection from Friday, Kentucky has a 3-8 record this season against teams projected to be in the NCAA Tournament.
The optics
Kentucky’s lack of bad losses, and its current winning streak, are two of its biggest selling points for making the NCAA Tournament.
UK does have plenty of losses to quality opposition, but some of that comes with the territory of playing in the SEC, a conference which Creme projects to get nine teams into the NCAA Tournament, the most of any league in the country.
It’s also best to leave a favorable last impression, and Kentucky is doing that right now with its winning streak.
The context for several of UK’s defeats are also important, as the Cats had a 1-4 record this season in games that Edwards missed due to suspension.
While not having a player available doesn’t take the loss off the résumé, it could add another wrinkle to the thought process of those who make up the selection committee.
For UK fans of a more cynical persuasion, it’s also fair to bring up the benefit of having Howard on the roster.
The selection committee is supposed to evaluate teams based on their entire body of work in a specific season, but one has to wonder if Kentucky’s name-brand recognition, along with boasting one of the biggest stars in women’s college basketball, would have any effect toward sliding the Wildcats into the tournament field.
The outlook
Assuming Kentucky takes care of business on Sunday afternoon against Auburn, a team it has already beaten on the road this season, UK would finish the regular season with a 15-11 overall record and an 8-8 mark in SEC games.
The game against the Tigers currently projects to be a Quad 3 game.
Kentucky’s late-season surge has successfully earned UK a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament, meaning the Cats will open postseason play on Thursday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
If the tournament started today, UK would be the No. 7 seed playing a second-round game against No. 10 seed Mississippi State.
That would present UK with another opportunity for a win against a fellow NCAA Tournament bubble team, as Mississippi State is currently projected by Creme as the fifth team out.
That’s really what it should come down to for UK to safely make the NCAA Tournament: A win over Auburn and one win in the SEC Tournament.
If UK does those two things it has a strong case to go dancing.
Rhyne Howard Day
Sunday’s regular-season finale at home against Auburn is being billed by Kentucky as “Rhyne Howard Day.”
The game will be the final time Howard plays in Lexington for UK unless the Cats fail to reach the NCAA Tournament, opt to play in the WNIT and elect to host games in that postseason tournament.
As such, UK is making it known that Sunday is likely the final chance Wildcats fans will have to see the program’s second all-time leading scorer in action.
Howard’s Senior Day ceremony is scheduled to begin around 3:40 p.m., approximately 20 minutes before the game is scheduled to start.
“They’ve stuck with us and myself through everything we’ve been through. Win, lose or draw they’re always going to be there to support us,” Howard said of UK fans on Friday. “They show that day in and day out, every single time.”
Howard will be the only UK player going through Senior Day ceremonies prior to Sunday’s game against Auburn.
Three other UK players on the team’s roster are listed as seniors: guard Robyn Benton, guard Blair Green (who hasn’t played this season due to injury) and guard Jazmine Massengill.
This story was originally published February 26, 2022 at 6:30 AM.
