Where UK women’s basketball stands in bracketology and rankings ahead of Selection Sunday
According to national media, Kenny Brooks and Kentucky women’s basketball (22-7, 11-5 SEC) have achieved enough to secure a top-16 overall seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
In the latest edition of ESPN’s Bracketology, Charlie Creme projects the Wildcats as a No. 3 seed.
Kentucky was a No. 4 seed in each of the February previews released by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, but, according to Creme, Alabama (23-8), Kansas State (26-7) and Tennessee (22-9) — all at one point in the hosting conversation — played themselves out of contention due to early losses in their respective conference tournaments.
Tennessee, which earned the No. 9 seed in the SEC Tournament, fell in the second round to in-state rival Vanderbilt (22-10), while No. 6 seed Alabama was upset by No. 11 Florida (16-17) hours later. Kansas State, still without star center Ayoka Lee as she recovers from a foot injury, lost in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals as the 5 seed to fourth-seeded West Virginia (24-7).
Getting a top-16 seed comes with the privilege of hosting first- and second-round NCAA Tournament games, would mark the third season in which Brooks has been able to host the first weekend — joining his 2023 and 2024 Virginia Tech squads. The longtime coach currently holds an NCAA Tournament record of 7-10 over the course of 10 appearances between James Madison and Virginia Tech, and he will look to advance past the round of 64 for the fifth time. Brooks’ best March Madness showing came in 2023, when the No. 1 Hokies made the program’s first Final Four before falling to eventual national champion LSU.
The Wildcats, who finished fourth in the Southeastern Conference and therefore secured a double-bye in the SEC Tournament, suffered a four-point loss in the SEC quarterfinals to Oklahoma (25-7); both the Wildcats and the Sooners are projected to receive top-16 overall seeds.
Should Creme’s latest bracketology stand, the top four seeding lines would be as follows — No. 1 seeds South Carolina (30-3), UCLA (30-2), Southern California (28-3) and Texas (31-3); No. 2 seeds TCU (31-3), Notre Dame (26-5), Connecticut (30-3) and North Carolina State (26-6); No. 3 seeds Duke (26-7), LSU (28-5), Oklahoma and Kentucky; No. 4 seeds Ohio State (25-6), Baylor (27-7), Ole Miss (20-10) and North Carolina (27-7).
The Wildcats would be in the same region as No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Connecticut, and No. 4 North Carolina. Kentucky suffered its first home loss when the Longhorns came to town on Feb. 13, and its first loss of the season back in early December at the hand of North Carolina.
Familiar foes Illinois (21-9), a projected No. 8 seed, and Louisville (21-10), a predicted No. 7 seed, were also designated to Region 4 by Creme. UK defeated rival Louisville at Memorial Coliseum on Nov. 16, and the Illini later that month as part of the Music City Classic. Both opponents were ranked at the time of their respective Kentucky matchups, and they lost to the Wildcats by double digits.
ESPN Bracketology — Region 4 Birmingham
Host site: Austin, Texas
1 Texas vs. 16 North Carolina-Greensboro / High Point
8 Illinois vs. 9 Richmond
Host site: Chapel Hill, N.C.
5 Maryland vs. 12 Florida Gulf Coast
4 North Carolina vs. 13 Ball State
Host site: Lexington, Ky.
6 West Virginia vs. 11 Columbia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Liberty
Host site: Storrs, Conn.
7 Louisville vs. 10 Oregon
2 Connecticut vs. 15 Albany
Her Hoop Stats also currently predicts the Wildcats to be a No. 3 seed in its latest forecast, as did analyst Autumn Johnson in her most recent March Madness projections ahead of the conference tournaments last week.
AP Top 25
Following Kentucky’s SEC Tournament loss to the Sooners, Kentucky dropped one spot to No. 13 in the March 10 edition of the Associated Press Women’s College Basketball Top 25.
In the wake of the Power Four conference tournament championships, each of the four programs to hoist a trophy — UCLA, South Carolina, TCU and Duke — were rewarded by AP voters. Once again, and for the fifth time this season, there is a shift at the top of the rankings; UCLA reclaimed the No. 1 spot after its redemption win against Southern California on Sunday in the Big Ten Tournament Championship. The Bruins held first place for 13 weeks, before the first of their two regular-season losses to the Trojans knocked them off the pedestal.
South Carolina improved three spots to No. 2 after defeating then-No. 1 Texas to win its third consecutive SEC Tournament title. TCU moved up two spots to No. 6 after tackling then-No. 17 Baylor to claim the program’s first Big 12 Tournament championship. Duke jumped four spots to No. 7 after edging then-No. 7 North Carolina State for its first ACC title since 2013.
After their championship game losses, Southern California dropped two spots to No. 4, Texas fell four spots to No. 5 and North Carolina State stumbled two spots to No. 9, while Baylor improved three places to No. 14.
The Week 19 top 10 is as follows — No. 1 UCLA, No. 2 South Carolina, No. 3 Connecticut, No. 4 Southern California, No. 5 Texas, No. 6 TCU, No. 7 Duke, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 9 North Carolina State and No. 10 LSU.
The Gamecocks, Longhorns, Tigers and Wildcats are joined in the Top 25 by four fellow SEC teams. No. 11 Oklahoma fell one spot to No. 11, Tennessee fell two spots to No. 20, Alabama dropped two places to No. 21 and Ole Miss remained at No. 25. Vanderbilt received 41 Top 25 votes, leaving the Commodores just outside the rankings.
NET rankings update
The NCAA NET rankings, an official tool utilized by the Selection Committee as a factor in deciding NCAA Tournament teams and their individual seeding, also deem the Wildcats a top team in the sport.
On Monday morning, Kentucky checked in at No. 18 overall. The rankings, updated daily, listed the Wildcats at No. 19 one week ago. Though it likely won’t be a direct one-to-one when it comes to NET rank vs. NCAA Tournament seeding, the tool is useful when trying to account for quality of wins, as described by assigning a win (or a loss) to one of four quadrants coinciding with a program’s particular NET ranking.
This season’s NCAA women’s college basketball guidelines dictate that the NET rank quadrant ranges are “Quad 1 (home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45); Quad 2 (home 26-55, neutral 36-65 and away 46-80); Quad 3 (home 56-90, neutral 66-105 and away 81-130) and Quad 4 (home 91-plus, neutral 106-plus and away 131-plus).”
That said, teams such as No. 2 South Carolina (16-3 vs. Quad 1 opponents), No. 3 Texas (14-3), No. 4 UCLA (14-2) and No. 6 Southern California (13-3) — the only programs with more than 10 Quad 1 victories — wouldn’t be a shock to see on the top line come Selection Sunday, but, as previously stated, more factors are considered when assigning seeds.
The NET top 10 is as follows — No. 1 Connecticut, No. 2 South Carolina, No. 3 Texas, No. 4 UCLA, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 6 Southern California, No. 7 Duke, No. 8 TCU, No. 9 Kansas State and No. 10 LSU.
Kentucky has a 5-6 record against Quad 1 teams. It boasts wins over No. 32 Illinois, No. 22 Vanderbilt, No. 17 Alabama, No. 13 Oklahoma and No. 14 Tennessee, but lost to North Carolina, No. 12 Ole Miss, Texas, LSU, South Carolina and Oklahoma.
