UK defied national expectations. Why ESPN analyst thinks Cats have ‘done enough’ to host
The wait is almost over.
Kentucky women’s basketball (22-7) will finally learn its fate at 8 p.m. on Sunday.
And, while it looks likely that the Wildcats have safely secured their bid as a top-16 overall seed — anointing Lexington as a host site for the first and second rounds — fans won’t truly know whether or not they’ll be able to purchase tickets to catch UK in Memorial Coliseum for the final time this year until the Division I Women’s College Basketball Committee unveils the 68 teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament bracket on ESPN.
According to predictions from ESPN women’s basketball bracketologist Charlie Creme, NCAA analyst Autumn Johnson and women’s basketball outlet Her Hoop Stats, Kentucky is in line to receive a No. 3 seed. In the event this holds true, it would mark three consecutive years, and the third ever, of hosting privileges for Kenny Brooks-coached teams.
In Creme’s latest bracketology, the Wildcats are joined as No. 3 seeds by Duke, LSU and Oklahoma, seemingly having “done enough” to be labeled a top-16 overall seed despite an unsightly loss to Texas A&M on Jan. 23, and dropping five of its final eight matchups. Oklahoma, previously considered by national media as a No. 4 seed, defeated the Wildcats in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on March 7.
The good news for Big Blue Nation is that, per Creme, “There was enough losing that took place that they were not a part of: Tennessee, Alabama, early in the SEC Tournament, that provided some cushion for teams like Kentucky and Oklahoma.”
Brracketology is simply a projection, but Creme typically provides a reliable framework for what fans might be able to expect come the actual reveal. For those looking for a bit more insight ahead of Selection Sunday, though, the Herald-Leader asked Creme about Kentucky’s hosting odds and résumé during an ESPN media conference call Wednesday.
“The fact that they’re hosting is pretty incredible frankly, given the circumstances,” Creme said. “And given where the program was before he got off that plane in Lexington.”
A fourth-place finish in the SEC — and its corresponding double-bye in the SEC Tournament — and five wins deemed “Quad 1” by the NCAA NET rankings wasn’t necessarily what many expected from Brooks’ first season in blue and white, despite his previous achievements, and those of 2025 John R. Wooden national player of the year candidate, point guard Georgia Amoore, who opted to follow her coach to Kentucky in lieu of declaring for the WNBA draft.
Creme noted that, ahead of this season, he “thought they were probably a borderline tournament team.”
“Kentucky gets my vote for surprise team,” Creme said. “I think we all had some faith that Kenny Brooks knew what he was doing, and once he got Amoore to come with him, that they would be able to do something. But they play in the best league in the country with a completely new roster. Completely new system. The fact that he had to incorporate all of that so quickly and did so, is certainly a credit to him. It’s a credit to Georgia Amoore, and the rest of the kids that came together very quickly.”
Creme’s projected No. 4 seeds are Ohio State, Baylor, Ole Miss and North Carolina, the latter two of which claimed home wins over UK on Feb. 10 and Dec. 5, respectively.
When asked by another media member whether Kentucky’s status as a No. 3 seed is firm, Creme admitted he thinks “it’s possible” the team ends up on the fourth line, given the fact that he’s predicting the Wildcats to claim the final spot on the third line.
“That’s simply the sliding of a seed line or one number on the S-curve,” Creme explained. “So it’s possible. But I think, I’m looking at the teams that are right behind them, I think there’s a distinct advantage that Kentucky has over Ole Miss and over North Carolina.”
While the advantages of being assigned a No. 3 seed instead of a No. 4 might not be obvious early on, like if Kentucky faces predicted Conference USA Tournament champion Liberty (Creme’s projected first-round matchup for UK) in Memorial Coliseum, they may prove to be the difference between the end of the season and a magical run.
“The 1 line is so good,” Creme said. “That all four of the teams that are going to be on the 1 line are certainly very Final Four favorite-type teams. So if you’re a 3 and you get to play one of the 2s, you definitely have a better chance of getting to the regional final. So there certainly would be a difference. I’m pretty confident in the 3, but like I said when you’re talking about the 12th team or the 13th team, you can’t be supremely confident.”
Sunday
Women’s NCAA Selection Show
When: 8 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Herald-Leader staff writer Cameron Drummond contributed to this story.
