Kentucky women’s basketball on the edge of NCAA Tournament hosting privileges
NCAA Tournament hosting privileges were never promised for the Kentucky women’s basketall team. But the team did successfully do what projections asked of it.
After an 8-8 record in SEC play, ESPN Bracketologist Charlie Creme estimated that — with the Cats on the wrong side of the top-16 overall seeds — a minimum of two wins in last week’s SEC Tournament would be enough to push the team over the edge. That was provided, of course, that others in a similar boat did not dominate their own conference tournaments during Champ Week.
With a 94-64 domination of No. 16 seed Arkansas in the first round and a 76-61 defeat of No. 8 seed Georgia in the second round, the Cats fulfilled what was asked of them. UK did not, however, do itself any favors with the tired, 87-64 loss it took to top-seeded South Carolina.
“I think they’ll be right there,” Creme said Monday. “And I think they’ll get a lot of consideration by the committee for that. I think they did enough to get there by winning two games (in the SEC Tournament). Though the Arkansas game doesn’t really help or hurt them. But the Georgia game, it was certainly helpful to win that game. Having them go against South Carolina in the next game was tough. If they had competed a little bit better, maybe. Not that they didn’t compete, but the margin of victory was what it was.”
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Now, about the others in a similar position of doubt.
Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina and West Virginia. Masters of their own fate, to a certain extent. Each team, talented but not a national championship contender, could capitalize on the opportunity ahead of it while burying the others.
Of those four, only the Spartans had been included in either of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s early seeding reveals; Michigan State checked in at No. 14 on the 4-line both times.
But Michigan State’s journey in the Big Ten Tournament concluded as soon as it began when the No. 7 seeded Spartans fell 71-69 to No. 10 seed Illinois in the second round.
North Carolina, the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament, advanced past its first day of action in the quarterfinals behind an 85-68 victory over No. 6 seed Virginia Tech, but lost 65-57 in the semifinals to No. 2 seed Louisville.
“Even though (UK wasn’t) playing anymore, the teams that needed to come from behind to grab that spot didn’t quite get far enough,” Creme said. “We talked about North Carolina. We talked about Michigan State. And those teams kind of fell short of quite catching Kentucky. But West Virginia did by winning (the Big 12 Tournament). And that was sort of the tipping point.”
The Mountaineers, the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, beat No. 10 seed Arizona State and No. 6 seed Colorado before knocking off top-seeded TCU for its second-ever Big 12 Conference Tournament title.
“I have Kentucky at 17,” Creme said. “Which is maybe the worst spot to be in in the women’s field. Because you were that close to hosting games, but you’re not. And then you’re probably going on the road to play the team in the second round that just beat you out for that last spot. So it’s a pretty frustrating scenario for them. But if West Virginia had not won the Big 12 Championship yesterday, I still would have Kentucky at 16 overall.
“So it was just a matter of, they were stagnant for a few days, and there was just enough teams, one team left that wasn’t stagnant that got all the way to the finish line to kind of complete the journey to the top 16.”
Though it’s not projected the Cats will sneak in and grab the final No. 4 seed, it isn’t impossible.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the NCAA NET Rankings — one of the evaluation tools the committee uses to award at-large bids and determine seeding — had Kentucky as the No. 16 team in the nation, with Michigan State at No. 17, West Virginia at No. 18 and North Carolina at No. 19.
Another positive angle the Cats may have on their side is their six-game stint without starting forward and third-leading scorer Teonni Key. Key sustained a dislocated elbow during the team’s Jan. 4 win over Missouri and proceeded to miss games at Alabama, Mississippi State and Tennessee, and against Oklahoma, Florida and Georgia.
Though UK managed to defeat then-top-five Oklahoma without Key, its losses at Tennessee and against Georgia were decided by single digits. Brooks has spoken multiple times about how frustrating and difficult that six-game stretch was without Key and how the Cats lost games they should have won in her absence.
For the time being, Kentucky fans should plan on traveling for the team’s first- and second-round games. But regardless of how the seeding ultimately lands, Brooks isn’t concerned about another team’s homecourt advantage.
“We want to host,” Brooks said. “We feel like we deserve to host. But we’re not putting all our eggs in a basket, emotionally, to try to figure out and to say if we’re going to host or not, and if we don’t get it then we’re going to be upset. We’re not. We’ll go anywhere and play anybody. That’s how much confidence we have in each other.”
Recent history shows that — especially for 5 seeds — hosting privileges don’t necessarily dictate who will and won’t advance.
Last season, No. 5 Kansas State — which fell to the 5-line after playing much of its Big 12 schedule without All-America center Ayoka Lee — defeated No. 4 Kentucky in overtime at Memorial Coliseum in front of Big Blue Nation.
Brooks’ final game at Virginia Tech was a home loss as a 4 seed to No. 5 Baylor at Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Virginia in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
As women’s basketball increases in popularity — and, simultaneously, parity — anything is possible in March.
Anybody looking for an example of a No. 5 seed defying the odds need only look at the program down I-64; Jeff Walz led Louisville to a 2013 national runner-up, the best 5-line finish in the history of the Division I women’s basketball championship.
Despite falling short of the SEC Tournament semifinals for a third consecutive season and second straight under Brooks, the head coach said he believes the team’s list of needs and must-fix details were addressed through the three games the Cats did play.
As point guard Tonie Morgan described the details ahead of the SEC Tournament, “What’s understood don’t gotta be said. We know what we have to do.”
“We had a really good week,” Brooks said. “I’m not talking about whether we won a game or lost a game. We did a lot of things this week that a coach will look at...we grew. We have some areas, mentally, that we needed to improve on, and we needed to play with a little bit more joy. We needed to do a lot of different things, and we did that. I was very proud of our kids.
“As I sit up here and talk to you guys, I knew this team had so much potential, but we were missing an element. And I think that we found it. And they’re playing with joy. They love each other. They love playing with each other. They’re connected now, and we’re going to keep that, fine-tune it and then see what happens in the NCAA Tournament.”
