UK-South Carolina football predictions: Surprise stat favors Cats, but is it enough?
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s game against South Carolina might play out Saturday in Columbia, S.C.
Pick potential?
Kentucky last season intercepted three passes from South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley, who earlier this season was lost to a broken foot. The players responsible for those snatches — Derrick Baity, Mike Edwards and Darius West — were lost to graduation, however.
Their replacements in a much younger secondary, despite some setbacks elsewhere as part of their coverage, are starting show a propensity for stealing the ball. A trio of Kentucky defensive backs over the last three games has come up with three picks — Jordan Griffin against Eastern Michigan, Ty Ajian against Florida and Quandre Mosely at Mississippi State — in addition to one takeaway each by Kash Daniel and DeAndre Square. That total amount ties UK with 16 other teams for fourth most interceptions in the nation (among those with whom the Cats are tied? Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin; solid company).
Sure, it’s a small sample size and turnovers can be a somewhat misleading stat when it comes to determining the strength of a defense, but it’s encouraging that so many Wildcats, particularly those in the secondary, have been involved in the team’s takeaways (two other defensive backs, Taj Dodson and Brandin Echols, have recovered fumbles this year). It speaks to the ability of the unit to stay committed and make big plays, even if they’re getting torched from time to time.
True freshman Ryan Hilinski has thrown three interceptions — one in each of the Gamecocks’ last three games — and is not noted for his ability to extend plays; if Kentucky’s front line can hold up its end of the bargain, the team’s last line of defense could have a memorable night.
Big night for Lynn Bowden
As I noted earlier in the week, this season’s been something of a mixed bag for Kentucky’s top receiving threat. The one-sentence synopsis: Lynn Bowden’s among the Southeastern Conference leaders in receptions and yardage, but he has hauled in just a little more than half the balls thrown his way, including several uncharacteristic drops and misjudgments in crucial situations.
Based on the Cats’ first four outcomes, they need to score, at least, in the high 20’s to low 30’s to have an opportunity to win, and against SEC competition it seems unlikely for them to cross the 30-point mark without a score or two from their most dynamic athlete. It doesn’t necessarily need to come off a catch — Bowden could pop for a scoring run out of the wildcat formation or break off a crowd-quieting kickoff or punt return TD — but I’m gonna guess Bowden, coming off his second-highest receiving output as a Wildcat (129 yards on just seven catches), churns out another big effort that features at least one trip to the end zone.
Who runs better?
Missouri last week made life difficult for Hilinski and the Gamecocks’ offense in general: he threw an untimely interception for a pick-six, the offensive line gave up four sacks and the rushing attack managed to move the ball only 16 yards on 24 carries.
A simple-but-reliable measure of a real winner in the SEC is how effective it is at running the ball. That’s an area wherein UK has excelled, even in its defeats: the Cats edged Florida (140-138) and, while Mississippi State clearly won the battle last weekend (241 to 154), UK didn’t have too hard of a time gaining ground in its first road trip.
Kentucky’s coaches this week have preached offensive balance, a sort of callback to the preseason, except during camp it was predicated on the idea of getting the passing game more involved. Now the tide is turning back; in other words, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Losing Terry Wilson’s takeoff ability affected the rushing attack but A.J. Rose and Kavosiey Smoke have proved to be big gainers, and each is averaging more than 5 yards per carry.
Talk of running the ball more has occurred down in Columbia this week, too. The Gamecocks actually rank ahead of UK in total rushing — 772 to 709 — but their number becomes a far-less intimidating 279 when you remove the 493 yards they piled up against Charleston Southern, an FCS opponent. If you also remove South Carolina’s worst performance (the Mizzou debacle) from the equation, UK still averages almost 50 more yards on the ground than this week’s host (177.3 to 131.5).
A wrinkle this week could be an increase in the number of snaps for backup quarterback Dakereon Joyner, who’s much more of a runner than Hilinski. UK was unable to contain the scampering of Mississippi State quarterback Garrett Shrader last week, so it would make sense for the Gamecocks to try and pick up ground with its own dual-threat weapon.
The score
South Carolina 29, Kentucky 28: My gut says that UK is a better football team than South Carolina, but the Gamecocks have game experience against tougher defenses (Alabama, Mizzou) than the one they’re likely to see on Saturday night, particularly when it comes to pass coverage, and are backed against a wall — a loss this week almost certainly strips them of a bowl shot. If UK can repeatedly get Hilinski to the ground it’d be significant in its upset bid, but lately the Cats have seemed unable to capitalize on sack opportunities. An unusual series delivers another quirky finish: a late two-point conversion puts the Gamecocks over the top and snaps Kentucky’s five-game win streak.
