Predicting UK’s record after the bye: Are there 4 more wins left on the schedule?
The University of Kentucky football team is four wins away from bowl eligibility. It has seven games left to get ’em.
On the bright side, five of those games will be played in Lexington, including four of the last five, and the toughest game left on the schedule — Georgia — is away. If you’re gonna be a long shot, might as well do it on the road.
Unfortunately, Kentucky has a burgeoning quarterback issue and, after last week, officially has the most porous rushing defense in the Southeastern Conference, transforming what at one time looked like a favorable slate to finish 2019 into something much more difficult to assess.
But, that’s not gonna stop everyone from trying, present company included. Let’s take a look at the rest of the schedule and the Cats’ chances against it.
Arkansas (Oct. 12)
My prediction: Win.
Confidence: High.
Rationale: The Razorbacks also will be coming off a bye and, like UK, are winless in SEC play (0-2). Their last loss, a 31-27 decision at home against Texas A&M, was darn close to being a marquee victory, akin to the one the Cats should have had against Florida in mid-September. Arkansas boasts one of the league’s top passing offenses — a concern, no doubt — but lags in the rushing department. With two weeks to heal up, and the extra emotion surrounding the contest (it’s being in honor of the late Jared Lorenzen), Kentucky ends its three-game losing streak regardless of who starts at quarterback.
Georgia (Oct. 19)
Prediction: Loss.
Confidence: High.
Rationale: Georgia is the best team in SEC East Division. Kentucky, at home, fell apart against the second-best team in the SEC East Division. The Cats might keep it respectable, but there’s next to no reason to believe they’ll be 4-3 after a trip to Athens.
Missouri (Oct. 26)
Prediction: Loss.
Confidence: Medium.
Rationale: Kelly Bryant, who transferred from Clemson, could be the most dangerous quarterback the Wildcats face this season. Georgia’s Jake Fromm is better, but Bryant’s got more of the kind of take-off potential that haunted UK at Mississippi State and in the latter stages of its loss to Florida. The Tigers (3-1) as of now are still ineligible for a postseason bowl but remain in the midst of an appeal to the NCAA, so by this point could have a lot or nothing to play for (other than, y’know, pride). The Cats failed to move the ball against some bad SEC defenses; unless they look lights out after the bye, it’s hard to imagine they’ll make much haste against the best one in the league. But, it’s at home and UK hasn’t lost in this series since 2014; they’ve got a shot.
Tennessee (Nov. 9)
Prediction: Win.
Confidence: High.
Rationale: Kentucky will again be coming off an open date, this time with, by my estimation, a 3-5 record and four games left to acquire three wins. The Volunteers will be no gimme — they couldn’t be defeated by one of the best UK teams, ever, last year in Knoxville — but they’ve been more disappointing than the Cats have this season and by this point in the year could be far away from bowl contention being a possibility (as of Tuesday, they’re 1-3 with games against Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State and South Carolina to play before visiting Kroger Field). Yea, Kentucky’s only beaten them twice since 1985, but on paper the Cats sure seem better.
Vanderbilt (Nov. 16)
Prediction: Win.
Confidence: Medium.
Rationale: The final road trip of the season pairs Kentucky with the SEC’s worst defense (Vandy’s allowing 502.3 yards per game) and its second-worst offense (367 yards per game, 10 fewer than Ketnucky and 12 more than Tennessee). It’s hard to imagine an uglier game than the 14-7 finish played in Lexington last year, but this one might give it a run for its money. As long as Kentucky comes out on the right side again, though, few will mind; Commodores running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn is a major threat, but if UK can keep their passing game in check then it should leave Nashville satisfied.
Tennessee Martin (Nov. 23)
Prediction: Win.
Confidence: High.
Rationale: FCS opponents aren’t “sexy,” especially so late in the season, but UT Martin will be worth every bit of the $500,000 its receiving to come in for a should-be loss at Kroger Field to grant Kentucky bowl eligibility for the fourth straight season. The Skyhawks (2-2) were drummed at Florida — 45-0 — in their only other “guarantee” game. With a bowl berth likely on the line, Kentucky won’t fool around, and UT Martin might not either; this is its final regular season game before the FCS playoffs, of which it could be a part depending on how Ohio Valley Conference play shakes out.
Louisville (Nov. 30)
Prediction: Win.
Confidence: Low.
Rationale: Until the last few years this series has been defined by streaks. From 1994 to 2015, only twice did a team win and a.) not follow it up with at least one more victory or b.) extend a streak — 1994 and 2002, both UK victories. Kentucky won back-to-back in 1997-1998; U of L won three straight from 1999-2001, then four straight from 2003-2006; then Kentucky won four straight from 2007-2010 before the Cards took the next five from 2011 to 2015. Over the last three seasons they’ve exchanged wins — UK in surprise fashion in 2016, a Louisville beatdown in 2017, and a Kentucky throttling last year. The recent pattern, then, would favor U of L, which like UK to this point has not defeated another Power Five program and looked better in-season than it was presumed to be in the preseason. I say UK ends the season on a high note regardless, but there’s a chance each could be fighting for their postseason lives at this point, which would make a bitter rivalry all the more fascinating the weekend after Thanksgiving.
Next game
Arkansas at Kentucky
7:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 12 (SEC Network)
This story was originally published October 1, 2019 at 7:33 AM.
