Historical quirk suggests Kentucky will beat Georgia. How can the Cats make it real?
If you believe that superfluous historical trends can have a positive effect on the outcome of the present, then have I got a stat for you.
Kentucky has never gone a decade without defeating Georgia in football at least once. The Wildcats entering their matchup with the No. 10 Bulldogs on Saturday are 0-9 with one opportunity left to get a “W” before this decade closes.
So UK’s a lock to win in Athens, right?
Of course not. But neither is Georgia.
As college football fans in the Peach State were reminded last weekend, upsets happen. Georgia for the first time in its history lost to an unranked opponent — South Carolina — as a top-three team at home. The Bulldogs opened as 24.5-point favorites in that one but three interceptions and two failed field-goal attempts contributed to their demise.
They’ll be even more motivated than usual when the Wildcats visit — Georgia probably has to win out to have any shot of making the College Football Playoff — but there’s also potential for a hangover: in games immediately following a loss, the Bulldogs are 3-3 under Kirby Smart. Kentucky has twice been presented with a Georgia team playing under those circumstances and lost — 27-24 in 2016 and 42-13 in 2017.
“We have to play the best we’ve played all year,” Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops said on his radio show Monday.
That’s a must. Here are some ways the Wildcats can ensure that happens.
Speed bumps
Stoops’ teams in six tries have allowed an average of 293.7 yards to the Bulldogs on the ground, and four times they’ve given up 300 or more yards. Last year’s UK team — one of the program’s greatest — lost 34-17 at home and surrendered 331 yards on the ground.
If Georgia is going to rack up rushing yardage — and it probably will — it’d be better to absorb it in short blows rather than massive bursts like the one Rakeem Boyd had on the second play for Arkansas last Saturday. Kentucky’s defense responded well in that game, holding the Razorbacks to 3.8 yards per carry the remainder of the game.
Three Bulldogs — D’Andre Swift, Zamir White and Brian Herrien — average more than 6 yards per carry. No small amount of “thank yous” go to an offensive line in which every starter outweighs the average NFL lineman.
Left guard Justin Shaffer suffered a neck injury against South Carolina that’ll keep him out against Kentucky. His and other injuries on the line contributed to Georgia’s struggles in the run game — 4.02 yards per carry — and a season-high three sacks versus the Gamecocks.
Georgia should be more adequately prepared for its line problems this week than it was last Saturday, but there could still be an opportunity for what has been a porous defense against the run — UK has given up 173.2 yards per game, 12th in the league — to capitalize. It’s coming off its best performance while the Bulldogs are coming off their worst. Momentum can matter for both.
Start fast
The only opponent this season that didn’t lead Kentucky in the first quarter was Eastern Michigan, whom the Cats defeated handily. UK has played from behind in every other game.
Arkansas, South Carolina and Toledo scored touchdowns on their first possessions, all drives that took less than four minutes to complete. Florida scored on its second after recovering a fumble in Kentucky territory. Mississippi State returned an interception for a touchdown on the game’s fourth play. Kentucky’s defense responded, with varying degrees of success and lengths of time, in each of those games; the offense, in all of the losses, failed to answer the call in critical spots.
Kentucky can’t let Georgia score at will. The Wildcats choked Arkansas in time of possession — 37:11 to 22:49 — and while it’s hard to ask for a similar showing on the road against a top-10 team, winning that battle would go a long way, as long as the short possession time isn’t the result of rapid scores by the Bulldogs.
UK, if it can keep the offensive rhythm it found last week, could probably recover from a 7-0 hole and keep things tight in Athens if it finds itself down early. It won’t recover from 13-nothing like it did against the Hogs.
Ready, receivers?
Kentucky against better SEC pass defenses than Georgia’s was able to move the ball through the air, albeit with a more traditional quarterback in Sawyer Smith, whose health is questionable heading into this one. Those defenses also weren’t as stout against the run — Georgia’s 73 yards allowed per game leads the conference.
Still, if Georgia is going to be got, it’ll probably be because UK figured something out with its pass game that allowed its run game to operate. It won’t get away with 8-for-12 passing for 88 yards down there.
If Lynn Bowden is still the starting quarterback — my guess is yes — a lights-out performance from another receiver is crucial. The best bet is Ahmad Wagner, who since the Florida game has totaled only three receptions for 50 yards, but is Kentucky’s second-leading receiver and its leader in TD receptions.
Bowden seemed to have chemistry with Justin Rigg; perhaps this is the week Kentucky leans heavily into its “12 personnel” schemes and gets him and fellow tight end Keaton Upshaw involved more in the passing game. They’ve combined for 177 yards and a TD on 15 receptions this year.
Next game
Kentucky at No. 10 Georgia
6 p.m. Saturday (ESPN)
This story was originally published October 15, 2019 at 3:08 PM.
