Kentucky vs. Louisville predictions: Is a secret UK weapon hiding in plain sight?
It’s almost football time in the bluegrass again. Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s battle with Louisville for the Governor’s Cup could play out on Saturday:
Pace of play
Of the 22 combined games they’ve played this season, UK and U of L have only had one last shorter than three hours — Louisville’s 42-0 win over Eastern Kentucky on Sept. 7.
Kentucky has had a couple come close — its win over Arkansas and loss at Georgia were just a hair past the three-hour mark — and the Cats overall have played shorter games since Lynn Bowden took over at quarterback. That’s not shocking: as one’s rushing offense moves up the chart — the Cats are 12th nationally — it stands to reason that its length of games will decrease.
Louisville has a more dynamic passing attack than the Cats but it favors the ground, too: the Cardinals rank 23rd in rushing with 215.7 yards per game and 63rd in passing at 238.5 yards, making it good for 28th overall in total offense (thanks to a non-existent pass attack, Kentucky ranks 90th overall).
How well Kentucky’s run defense stands up against U of L might go a long way toward deciding not just the outcome, but how long the game lasts. UK gives up 146.1 yards on the ground (55th overall) but is 10th against the pass (178.5). Louisville will pound away if it finds running room — as it did against Clemson and Notre Dame — which could mean a short game and a long day for UK fans.
100 and 100
Co-offensive coordinator Eddie Gran, after the win over Tennessee Martin, acted like UK had worked on some out-of-the-ordinary plays in the last few weeks that it hasn’t had to bring out of the playbook. When better than Saturday to throw everything at the wall?
Louisville’s run defense is among the worst in the nation — the Cards give up 183.2 yards per game, better than only 11 Power Five conference teams. They’ve fared even worse against the pass — U of L is 106th among 130 FBS squads, allowing 256.3 yards per game. Bowden at Vanderbilt was able to top 100 passing yards in addition to what’s become his norm on the ground; is it something he can do again in his likely final game at Kroger Field?
I’d say it’s doable, but I’ll hedge here: Why won’t it be Sawyer Smith who blows up the Cards’ secondary a few times? Smith won’t start — UK is going to go in looking to do what’s been successful since mid-October — but the staff’s willingness to re-introduce him to the field over the last few weeks signals that he’s more than available. What if those “trick” plays are really just change-of-pace schemes with Bowden lined up at receiver and Smith under center? Wild stuff, I know, but at this point it’d be something few would see coming.
Kickin’ it
If Saturday’s rivalry game were to be decided within a single possession — as three this decade have — or by whomever has the ball last, it’ll be fascinating to see under what circumstances either team would let their fate be decided by a kicker (especially since, once again, rain is in the forecast).
Point-after-touchdown attempts have become an event in and of themselves for Kentucky — the Cats’ two kickers, Chance Poore and Matt Ruffolo, are a combined 32-of-36 this season. Poore is 5-for-9 on field-goal tries while Ruffolo is 2-for-3. Poore reclaimed his starting job but once again had to yield to Ruffolo last week after an early PAT try ricocheted off a goal post.
Louisville’s Blanton Creque was perfect on extra points — 33-of-33 — before suffering a season-ending injury in October. His successor, Ryan Chalifoux, is 16-of-18 since and has attempted only one field goal, a 44-yarder that went wide. He has half as many touchdown throws as Bowden this season, though: he connected for a 7-yard score out of a fake field-goal formation at North Carolina State.
It’s more likely that Ray Guy Award finalist Max Duffy will have the biggest impact on the game of any player whose foot touches the ball — he averages about 7 more yards per punt than Louisville counterpart Mason King — but it’ll be worth keeping an eye on both staff’s decisions in the kicking game.
Final score
Kentucky 29, Louisville 24: The higher the score goes, the more likely it is that UK is on the losing side of the rivalry for the 16th time. I think the Cats will be able to maintain their methodical play against the Cardinals and keep them from igniting with regularity on offense. UK wins consecutive games in the series for the first time since taking four straight from 2007-2010.
