New bowl projections for Kentucky after Louisville rout. Where will the Cats end up?
The regular season is finished, and Kentucky heads into bowl-speculation portion of the college football calendar with a 7-5 record and 3-5 showing in the Southeastern Conference.
Where will that place the Wildcats in the postseason?
Bowl assignments will be officially announced Dec. 8, but the latest projections started coming in Sunday morning. UK’s destination remains a bit of a guessing game.
The Cats’ postseason fate is tied to where other schools in the SEC wind up, and the outlook for the programs ahead of Kentucky in the pecking order is far from clear.
Louisiana State is likely to be in the College Football Playoff regardless of its showing against Georgia in the SEC title game Saturday. If the Bulldogs win that one, they’d likely join LSU in the four-team playoff. If Georgia loses, it’ll land in one of the other New Year’s Six bowl games.
Then it gets tricky.
Alabama and Florida — both with 10-2 records — could also end up in New Year’s Six bowls, but neither team appears to be a lock for one of those games.
What does all of that have to do with Kentucky?
After the four playoff teams are chosen and the remaining New Year’s Six bowls are filled, the Citrus Bowl gets first choice of the SEC teams that are left.
After that, the conference assigns teams to the “pool of six” bowl games: the Outback, Gator, Liberty, Belk, Music City and Texas bowls. Those assignments are made in coordination with the schools and bowl officials. In other words, the schools and bowls can rank their order of preference, and the league office makes assignments based on those preferences.
So, the more SEC teams that make it into the playoffs or New Year’s Six games, the more attractive bowl possibilities will be left for Kentucky and other teams lower in the pecking order.
Following LSU, Georgia, Alabama and Florida, there are five bowl-eligible SEC teams: Auburn (9-3, 5-3 in SEC), Tennessee (7-5, 5-3), Texas A&M (7-5, 4-4), Kentucky (7-5, 3-5) and Mississippi State (6-6, 3-5).
If LSU, Georgia, Alabama and Florida are all selected for the playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl — as some are predicting — that would leave just five teams to be divvied up among the Citrus Bowl and the “pool of six” games.
SEC bowl selection process
Since the current selection process was implemented five seasons ago, the SEC has not sent any team to the same “pool of six” bowl game more than once, a point of emphasis to keep postseason trips from getting stale.
There are some combinations among this year’s bowl-eligible teams and “pool of six” games to keep that streak alive, but this could also be the season it comes to an end.
Whatever happens, a few of these “pool of six” games seem unrealistic for Kentucky.
The Texas Bowl — set for Dec. 27 in Houston — has never hosted UK, but it’s likely low on the Wildcats’ priority list. That game is, by far, the longest trip from Lexington and is also the earliest of the “pool of six” games — one day before the annual Kentucky-Louisville basketball game, in fact.
The Music City Bowl — set for Dec. 30 in Nashville — hosted the Cats just two years ago, as well as in 2006, 2007 and 2009. Nashville is obviously an easy trip for UK fans, but yet another visit to the Music City Bowl seems unlikely.
The Outback Bowl — set for Jan. 1 in Tampa, Fla. — is the only New Year’s Day game among the “pool of six” bowls, and Kentucky is likely too low in the pecking order to land there, even if LSU, Georgia, Alabama and Florida all earn top-level bowl games.
That would leave the Belk Bowl in Charlotte on Dec. 31, the Liberty Bowl in Memphis on Dec. 31, and the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville on Jan. 2.
Kentucky has never played in the Belk Bowl and hasn’t been to the Liberty Bowl since the 2008 season, making those two games seemingly likely landing spots.
Don’t count out a return trip to Jacksonville, however.
The Cats did play in the Gator Bowl three years ago, but they’d welcome another trip to that game. It would give UK a warmer-weather destination and a more prestigious bowl game. Gator Bowl representatives were also in attendance for Kentucky’s impressive victory over Louisville on Saturday, and the dynamic Lynn Bowden — surely an attractive draw to bowl reps — could allow UK to end up with a postseason assignment slightly above their record.
Of the four other bowl-eligible teams in Kentucky’s tier within the SEC, only Auburn has not played in the Gator Bowl since the current selection process began. Tennessee played in that game five years ago. Jacksonville hosted Texas A&M last season and Mississippi State the year before that.
New Kentucky bowl projections
CBS Sports placed UK in the Liberty Bowl with its update Sunday, pitting the Wildcats against Big 12 opponent Iowa State (7-5, 5-4). Those projections had neither Alabama nor Florida in a New Year’s Six bowl game, sending Bama to the Citrus Bowl, the Gators to the Outback Bowl, and Auburn to the Gator Bowl.
The 247Sports bowl projections Sunday had the exact same outcome for Kentucky: a date with Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. Those projections had Alabama, Florida and Georgia in New Year’s Six bowls, but sent Auburn to the Citrus Bowl, Texas A&M to the Outback Bowl, and Tennessee to the Gator Bowl — a logical destination for each of those schools.
USA Today updated its bowl projections Tuesday morning, also sending Kentucky to the Liberty Bowl — against Kansas State (8-4, 5-4 Big 12). The USA Today picks had Alabama, Florida and Georgia in the New Year’s Six, with Auburn in the Citrus Bowl, Texas A&M in the Outback Bowl and Tennessee in the Gator Bowl.
CollegeFootballNews.com’s updated bowl projections placed Kentucky in the Gator Bowl against Mark Stoops’ alma mater, Iowa (9-3, 6-3 Big Ten). Those projections also had Alabama, Florida and Georgia in New Year’s Six games, putting Auburn in the Citrus Bowl, with Texas A&M in the Outback Bowl and Tennessee in the Liberty Bowl, an in-state game that hasn’t hosted the Volunteers since 1986.
One of ESPN’s bowl projection pickers also placed Kentucky against Iowa in the Gator Bowl with Sunday’s update. The other put the Wildcats in the Music City Bowl against Virginia Tech (8-4, 5-3 ACC). An assignment to Nashville, again, would go against the SEC’s previous logic on matching up teams and bowls, but perhaps the proximity and large number of Kentucky fans in and around the city would make it a mutually beneficial pairing. Both of ESPN’s bowl pickers had Georgia, Florida and Alabama in New Year’s Six bowls, with Auburn in the Citrus Bowl and Tennessee in the Outback Bowl. The one who didn’t put UK in the Gator Bowl had Mississippi State in that spot instead.
Longtime college football reporter Brett McMurphy updated his bowl projections for the Stadium website Monday, putting Kentucky in the Gator Bowl against Wisconsin (10-2, 7-2), which will compete against Ohio State for the Big Ten championship this weekend. McMurphy’s picks send Auburn to the Citrus Bowl, Tennessee to the Outback Bowl, and keep Texas A&M close to home in the Texas Bowl — probably the most likely scenario to get UK back to Jacksonville.
The new bowl projections for The Athletic also place Kentucky in the Gator Bowl — also against Wisconsin — with the exact same assignments as the Stadium picks: Auburn in Citrus, Tennessee in Outback, and Texas A&M in Texas.
The Sporting News projections went through a reshuffle Monday, placing Kentucky in the Belk Bowl against Virginia Tech. Those picks have Alabama and Georgia in the New Year’s Six, with Florida getting the Citrus Bowl spot, Auburn in the Outback Bowl and Tennessee in the Gator Bowl. Those picks have Texas A&M going to the Independence Bowl, which is a tier below the “pool of six” games and a highly unlikely scenario, and no SEC teams in the Music City Bowl or the Texas Bowl.
The new Athlon Sports bowl projections put Kentucky in the Belk Bowl against Virginia Tech, giving Texas A&M the Outback Bowl spot and placing Tennessee in the Gator Bowl.
This story was originally published December 1, 2019 at 1:27 PM.
