Way-too-early SEC outlook: Ranking the conference 1 through 14 heading into 2020
The 2019 college football season is officially over. On to 2020!
It’s never too early to prognosticate, so here’s my guess as to what the pecking order, on paper, should look like in the Southeastern Conference before the first kickoffs arrive in September.
Title contenders
1. Alabama: Both it and LSU lost an all-timer at quarterback, but ‘Bama got a peak at its future when Mac Jones — a former Kentucky commit — was forced into action due to Tua Tagovailoa’s injury. Jones started the last three games for the Crimson Tide, including a 327-yard, three-touchdown performance against Michigan in a 35-16 Citrus Bowl victory, though he’ll be without two of his top three receivers; Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are both considered first-round NFL prospects. A tougher slate in 2020 — it trades games with Duke and South Carolina for ones against USC and Georgia — could be concerning, especially since they occur within the first three weeks of the year.
2. LSU: The nation’s leader in scoring offense (48.9) and total offense (564.4 yards) loses orchestra leader Joe Burrow and will presumably be without the services of juniors Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) and Justin Jefferson (WR) in the fall as well, but Ja’Marr Chase (1,559 yards, 18 TDs on 75 receptions) and Terrace Marshall (625, 12 on 43 catches) will be juniors, and the play of a guy like Derek Stingley — a freshman who stole six balls and broke up 15 passes before Monday’s championship game — indicates that the defending national champions will be fine regardless of who heads to the league.
3. Georgia: Transfers have dominated the Bulldogs’ offseason — both incoming and outgoing. The departure of Cade Mays to Tennessee was a head-scratcher until more details came to light, and it made the losses of future NFL draftees Andrew Thomas, Isaiah Wilson and Solomon Kindley all the more tough to handle. The addition of Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman makes losing Jake Fromm easier to stomach — he’s a dual-threat guy with experience, which Georgia notably lacked in that position before Newman made his decision. D’Andre Swift will be missed, no doubt, but the Bulldogs have proved more than capable of fielding high-caliber backs year-over-year; Zamir White should keep the train rolling.
4. Auburn: What’s awesome for the Tigers is a berth to the SEC title game could simply come down to winning their final two games of the regular season. What stinks for the Tigers is that the teams standing between them and a berth in the SEC title game in that hypothetical scenario are LSU (home on Nov. 21) and Alabama (at their place on Nov. 28). Bo Nix’s last outing didn’t impress, but he set multiple school records for a freshman quarterback against what College Football Reference believed to be the toughest schedule in the SEC and should improve this spring with the starting job firmly in hand.
5. Florida: The Gators had to replace four starting offensive linemen last offseason; this year they’ll bring back four guys, losing only center Nick Buchanan to graduation. That should aid them in their quest to improve the run game — they ranked 13th in the conference at 130 yards per game, ahead of only Vanderbilt — and allow a senior Kyle Trask to build upon a season in which he would have led the conference in multiple passing categories if Burrow hadn’t chosen 2019 as the year to become otherworldly.
Fringe contenders
6. Texas A&M: Kellen Mond has increased his completion percentage each year since he’s been on campus and has been an iron man for the Aggies — since 2017 he’s started 33 games, most in the league. A&M will also return leading rusher Isaiah Spiller, leading receiver Jhamon Ausbon and eight of its top 10 tacklers (that, plus most of its linemen from an 8-5 team that capped its season with a win over Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl). It faces an uphill battle, being in the loaded West Division, but a soft early schedule should have the Aggies fresh for a much tougher second half.
7. Kentucky: UK returns 17 players who started for it in a 37-30 victory against Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, four of five starting offensive linemen and seven defensive starters — plus a sizable number of rotation guys. It also expects to return Terry Wilson — 12-3 as a starting quarterback — at full strength. The Wildcats’ ceiling is much higher with a healthier, and improved, Wilson, but even if he’s 80 percent of what he was before the injury there’s a lot to be excited about with this group. It must replace its leading playmaker (some guy named Lynn Bowden) and sacks leader Calvin Taylor Jr., but Mark Stoops and Co. have reached a point where they should start earning some benefit of the doubt — not just locally, but nationally.
8. Tennessee: Most early top-25 projections, if they include seven SEC squads, have Tennessee as pick No. 7 rather than Kentucky. And it’s hard to reason against those selections: the Volunteers have been a worse team in and outside of the league the last few years but have continued to have Kentucky’s number. They ended the year on a six-game win streak to complete an 8-5 campaign, and got big boosts with the return of All-SEC First Team lineman Trey Smith and the addition of Mays (who is expected to get a waiver for immediate eligibility). Whom an impressive offensive line is protecting could be in flux — Jarrett Guarantano has been the closest thing to a mainstay but his hold on the quarterback position isn’t exactly firm. However, the signs of life the Volunteers showed after a poor start in 2019 should generate optimism among their supporters.
9. South Carolina: Giving the Gamecocks the narrowest edge here because of stability: of the last six programs to be mentioned on this list, they’re one of only two that didn’t have a head-coaching change (Vanderbilt is the other one). They finished 4-8 against the league’s second-toughest schedule (fifth in the country) and bring back multiple defensive starters in addition to quarterback Ryan Hilinski, who will be coached by a new offensive coordinator. A four-week run — versus Missouri, at Kentucky, at Florida and versus Tennessee — could have them out of the SEC race before the midseason point before their bye week; on the flip side, it could be an opportunity to re-insert themselves into the league-wide conversation after a disappointing 2019.
Bottom five
10. Missouri: The Tigers should take a step back with the losses of Kelly Bryant and defensive back DeMarkus Acy, but have the talent to obtain bowl eligibility once more; they’d actually be allowed to go bowling this time, albeit under a new head coach in Eliah Drinkwitz.
11. Mississippi State: Kylin Hill could forego the NFL Draft and instead play one last season under newly minted head man Mike Leach, which would boost the Bulldogs’ ceiling.
12. Mississippi: With Lane Kiffin at the helm, Ole Miss can in tandem make itself a more entertaining brand on and off the field right away.
13. Arkansas: The Hogs hired a new head coach, but the most interesting thing that’s happened to them this offseason is the transfer of quarterback Nick Starkel to San Jose State, the 5-7 Mountain West Conference team that defeated Arkansas, 31-24, early in 2019.
14. Vanderbilt: The Commodores retained Derek Mason, who chose not to retain his defensive and offensive coordinators this off-season.
